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NFL Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Divisional Round)

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This Sunday, the NFL Divisional Round presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for the Super Bowl, there's plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with everything on the line.

Whether you're targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let's dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Sunday NFL playoff action.

NFL Sunday Divisional Round Betting Primer

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • In the Eagles' last four games, the first score has been an Eagles Touchdown.
  • The Eagles have won 13 of their last 14 games.
  • The Eagles have won 13 of their last 19 games as favorites (68%).
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in their last 14 games.
  • The Eagles are 5-13-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
  • They covered just five spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).
  • The Rams have a -102 implied team total of 19.5 points.
  • The Eagles are 17-11 ATS as home favorites in their last 28 games (60%).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 25 games.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 21 points in their last 13 games.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 13 of the Eagles' last 23 games.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles have lost six of their last 12 road games.
  • The favorites have won 24 of the Rams’ last 28 games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Rams’ last 14 games.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 18 games.
  • The Rams have won each of their last five road games.
  • The Rams have won 10 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites.
  • Since 2023, the Rams are 6-12 as underdogs straight up. This season, they are 5-6 as underdogs (6-5 ATS) after their massive wins against the 49ers (twice), Vikings (twice), and Bills.
  • The Rams have scored last in nine of their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
  • The Rams have failed to cover the spread in six of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

  • Fourteen of the Eagles’ last 15 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Eagles' last nine games in January has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 1-8 toward the over at home this season (Under 41 points per game).
  • Each of the Eagles' last six home games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 15-21 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 8-9 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • Nine of the Eagles' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Rams' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%)
  • Eleven of the Rams’ last 23 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Rams’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or an injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023.
  • Only eight times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7 and Saints in Week 13.
  • Miami only generated 238 yards against them on Monday Night Football, but they yielded 382 yards of offense to the Patriots in Week 11 and over 480 yards in Week 12 to the Eagles.
  • Against the Jets, they allowed nine points but over 320 yards.
  • Six of the Rams' last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Eagles have won each of their last eight home games. But I wouldn't be too quick to write off the LA Rams on the road.

Because this team has been road warriors throughout the 2024 season, don't overlook that fact, even though they have played their last three games at home/neutral venues.

They have won each of their last five road games (six if you count Wild Card weekend). The NFC West champions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as road favorites. The Rams are also 5-0 ATS on the road in their last five road games (again 6-0 away from Los Angeles) after starting the year 0-3 on the road ATS.

The Rams have also covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams with winning records.

Sean McVay's team covers, especially when they get suppressed lines while playing on the road.

Given the spread at +6.5 points, it seems like there's great value in playing the Rams side of this matchup. Keep in mind that this hypothetical matchup between the Rams-Eagles was +6.5 before L.A. impressively defeated the Minnesota Vikings. I thought for sure they would get more love after the big win on Monday night, but there was no line movement in their favor.

Usually, I try to fade recency bias, but blatantly ignoring it seems like a value proposition.

This Eagles-Rams game is a rematch of Week 12, where Philly was a three-point road favorite. The final score was 37-20, and the visiting team very much dominated the game. However, a Kyren Williams first-drive fumble deep inside the Eagles' territory set the Rams back tremendously. Through one quarter, the score could have easily been 14-3 in favor of the Rams. Instead, it was 7-3, and the Eagles offense began chipping away at the Rams defense. Saquon Barkley ripped off a 70-yard touchdown to open the third quarter (one of two rushing TDs of 70-plus yards), and that marked the end for Los Angeles in Week 12 (even after they responded with another TD quickly in the second half). They missed another field goal in the third quarter, and Stafford fumbled in Eagles territory.

But outside of that matchup, the Rams have been plucky as underdogs. After all, they have beaten the 49ers twice, the Vikings twice, and the Bills despite being favored to lose in all those contests.

In rematches, the Rams are 3-0 under Matthew Stafford this season (also 3-0 toward the under in rematches).

Even if conditions are subpar on Sunday - short week, snowy conditions – I think this Rams team is live not just to cover the +6.5 but to win outright against Philadelphia.

As I have written about in past Eagles matchups, their odds of covering the spread come down to their defense holding the Rams to under 20 points. LA hit 20 in the first matchup, but Philly still covered because their offense scored 37.

I don't think their offense will have similar success if the Rams can get pressure on quarterback Jalen Hurts. Last week, according to Next Gen Stats, when under duress, Hurts finished 3 of 9 for 23 yards, including two sacks. During the regular season, Hurts completed just 45.3% of his passes under pressure (10th-lowest in NFL) while taking a sack on 25.9% of such dropbacks (3rd-highest), though he did complete 77.1% of his passes from a clean pocket (4th-highest).

Hurts was pressured on 35% of his dropbacks in the first matchup versus the Rams. He completed three of seven passes for 48 yards under pressure.

Eagles’ home games hit heavy toward the under, which is par for the course of a team that wins with a combination of rushing/defense.

Nine of the Rams' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line (65%), with their last three road games going way under the total (including rematches against teams they played earlier in the season).

I was kicking myself last week for not just taking the under in Packers-Eagles instead of just taking Green Bay with the points.

Props:

Jalen Hurts has more than 25.5 pass attempts twice in his last 10 games (20%).

Matthew Stafford is under 216.5 passing yards in his last 4 games and the conditions here will be considerably worse (cold, snow). The last time Stafford played the Eagles, he completed 24 of 36 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

All but two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly's defense since their bye week.

In his last six games, Kupp has had more than three catches once, with 13 catches for 190 yards and just 1 TD over that span. 2.1 catches and 31.6 receiving yards per game.

Note that Kupp had a strong outing in the previous matchup versus Philly, catching 8 of 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown, earning a 32% Target share. His longest reception spanned 27 yards. But had it not been for the 27-yard TD catch by Kupp late in the fourth quarter in that contest, he would have been a major bust in Week 12 with just seven catches for 33 yards.

According to Next Gen Stats, Eagles cornerback Cooper DeJean allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender this season, the 5th-fewest among slot cornerbacks and the 4th-fewest among rookie slot cornerbacks since 2018 (min. 250 coverage snaps).

In Week 12, DeJean was targeted a team-high 9 times, 5 of which were to Cooper Kupp. Kupp recorded three catches on five targets for 11 yards, with DeJean as the nearest defender.

Wide receiver DeVonta Smith led the team with four receptions for 55 yards on four targets last week but did not score.

Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone over 5.5 receptions.

Over the past two seasons, Smith has gone under 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in 78% of his games (14/18).

Tight end Dallas Goedert was another key target, finishing with four receptions for 47 yards and one touchdown on a team-high six targets. He was targeted on 35% of his routes run in a favorable matchup versus the Packers linebackers.

All but two tight ends the Rams have faced have exceeded their yards projection since Week 2. Goedert played a key role with a 26% Target share, catching 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards the last time he played the Rams (although DeVonta Smith was hurt). He also saw two red zone targets but couldn't find the end zone.

Tight end Tyler Higbee was the top target, catching five passes for 58 yards (45% target rate per route run).

However, Higbee left the game in the first half with a chest injury and did not return. Despite his limited playing time, he led the Rams in receiving yards. According to McVay, Higbee is expected to play in the Divisional Round.

And I can't believe his anytime TD odds are still so long at +450. I liked his odds to score last week at +500, and he probably would have scored had he not gotten hurt in the first half.

A.J. Brown was held to just one reception for 10 yards on three targets against the Packers and was caught reading a book on the sideline. Apparently, he has been doing this all season. It is worth noting that three targets are the fewest he has had in a game all season. Other reports claim he hasn't fully recovered from a knee injury (he was on the injury report last week and on Wednesday's first injury report).

Either way, he's playing this week, and I'd expect him to be much more involved. Following games with four or fewer targets this season, AJB WR1 szn has gone for 100 receiving yards the following week (including against the Rams in Week 12). He also scored in that game on a red-zone target.

I've talked about liking the Rams in the overall breakdown of this game, so this is a prime spot to scoop some value on LA’s first TD odds as they look to shock the Eagles on the road. Kyren Williams is the play for me. He has scored in six of his last seven games. The Eagles lost linebacker Nakobe Dean in the Wild Card Round to a season-ending injury. He was PFF’s second-highest-ranked run-stuffing linebacker, boasting a stop percentage of 13%. No linebacker had more run stops per game than Dean in 2024. His loss will greatly benefit the Rams’ rushing attack.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Sides:

  • Baltimore is 17-7 ATS on the road in the last two seasons (71%) and 13-6 ATS as a road favorite in their last 19 applicable appearances (68%).
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games.
  • Baltimore is 18-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 12-13 ATS as home favorites and 9-4-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 14.
  • In each of the Ravens’ last five games, the first score has been a Ravens Touchdown.
  • The home team has covered the spread between the Ravens and Bills in six of the last seven games.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games following a loss.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
  • The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last nine home games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 23-8 as a favorite since the start of last season and 16-15 ATS.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 17-2 straight up and 11-8 ATS at home.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games.
  • The Bills have won 20 of their last 25 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites (66%).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents.
  • Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
  • The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Ravens’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Ravens are 13-5 toward the over this season.
  • Thirteen of the Ravens' last 18 games have gone OVER the total points line. Their lowest total game this season has been 34 and 33 points (previous lows of 42, 43 and 45 points).
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 17 of the last 23 games.
  • Ten of the Ravens' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (12 of their last 17), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • Each of the last four games between the Ravens and Bills has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in 10 of their last 11 games with their starters.
  • The Bills have been the first to 20 points in their last nine home games.
  • Ten of the Bills' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 7-2 toward the over this season (50.3 points per game).
  • Fifteen of the Bills' last 20 games have gone OVER the total points line - 21 of their last 27 road games.
  • Four of the Bills' last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Bills' last 15 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Bills' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Game of the week? Maybe game of the year? The Buffalo Bills versus the Baltimore Ravens for the right to take on the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

I'm not going to overthink this one. Baltimore is favored on the road for a reason. They are the superior team and arguably have the superior quarterback.

The offense has been dialed in all year, and the defense is hitting its stride since they moved safety Kyle Hamilton back into a deep safety position in Week 11.

We also saw this matchup earlier this season and it was no contest. The Ravens won 35-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.

Yes, Buffalo was missing some key players in that game. No Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano or Amari Cooper.

And there are concerns about No. 1 WR Zay Flowers' availability - he’s doubtful - but he was a complete non-factor in the first game versus Buffalo, hauling in just one ball for 10 yards.

Baltimore will win by running behind Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. I feel like the loss of Flowers will only be felt if the Ravens fall into a negative game script.

The trends also back the Ravens on the road. Baltimore is 17-7 ATS on the road in the last two seasons (71%) and 13-6 ATS as a road favorite in their last 19 applicable appearances (68%).

And even though the Ravens are "favored," there's an element of them feeling like underdogs on the road. FWIW, the Ravens are 5-2 ATS as road dogs, and Lamar Jackson boasts an 80% record ATS as an underdog (12-3). Josh Allen is 57% ATS as an underdog and 53% ATS as a favorite.

I like the Ravens in this game, but I am more than aware this could end up being a total coin flip. Therefore, my best bet is not the Ravens ML, but the game total over.

Throughout two years of writing the weekly BettingPros primers, one trend that I have noticed with Buffalo and Baltimore more than anything is that they play to the level of their competition. Given the stakes of this matchup, I very much believe we will see the best of both MVP-worthy quarterbacks.

I like the game total over even more acknowledging that the first game finished under 47.5 points.

Both teams are coming off unders, and Buffalo has been home to the over throughout the 2024 season. The Bills have scored 30-plus points in 10 of their last 11 games with their starters.

It's the perfect storm, given that eight of the Ravens’ last nine road games have gone OVER the total points line.

The weather is going to be well below freezing, with a chance of snow in the forecast, but the wind doesn't project to play a major role. Wheels up.

Each of the last four games between the Ravens and Bills has gone UNDER the total points line. Regression to the mean is coming between these two AFC powerhouses.

Props:

Lamar Jackson has thrown for fewer than 217.5 passing yards in six of his last eight contests. His passing yards line opened at 232.5 passing yards against the Buffalo Bills and has been moving down since.

Jackson has attempted more than 27.5 passes twice in his last seven games.

Isaiah Likely led the Ravens last week in receiving with three catches for 53 yards on four targets, including a long reception of 25 yards. The Ravens No. 2 TE led all skill players with an 80% snap rate.

Likely led the team with four targets, followed by Mark Andrews and Justice Hill with three targets each. Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace had two targets each, while Nelson Agholor received one target. Anthony Miller had three targets on just five routes run.

Without Zay Flowers in the lineup, the Ravens offense utilized 2-TE sets on a season-high 69.4% of plays, their second-straight game over the 60% mark (68.7% in Week 18 vs CLE) - Next Gen Stats.

Across 50 plays with two tight ends on the field, the Ravens posted a 58.0% offensive success rate and 6.0 yards per play. During the regular season, the Ravens' offense averaged 7.1 yards per play with 2+ tight ends on the field, the most in the NFL and the only team over 6.0.

We should see Isaiah Likely with a bigger role against Buffalo, so I like his odds of converting in the red zone. Andrews has traditionally struggled against Buffalo's defense - zero TDs in five career games - so expect other Ravens players to step up.

Two RBs this season have surpassed 55.5 rushing yards (Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris) against the Ravens' stout run defense. Take the UNDER on 55.5 rushing yards for Cook this week (opened at 53.5 rushing yards).

According to Next Gen Stats, Cook has run to the weak side of the formation on 54.6% of his carries this season, the highest rate in the NFL (min. 150 total carries).

He averaged 1.7 yards before contact per carry on runs directed to the weak side compared to just 1.0 yards before contact per carry on runs directed to the strong side of the formation. His eight touchdowns on carries directed to the weak side were the 4th-most in the NFL.  The Ravens defense allowed the 4th-fewest yards per carry (3.6) and a league-low 28.2% success rate on carries directed to the weak side by opposing running backs this season, the 2nd-lowest success rate allowed by any defense over the past six seasons (since 2019).

Khalil Shakir contributed six catches for 61 yards in the Bills' win over Denver. Shakir led the team with a 23% Target share (6 targets). He was the only Bills player to see more than three targets.

Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in 10 of 16 games this season. Take the over on his 51.5 receiving yards this week (it opened at 47.5 receiving yards).

Shakir caught four of five targets for 62 yards, with a long reception of 52 yards and 26 yards after the catch (18% Target share) the last time he faced the Ravens.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid added 47 yards on three receptions but did not score (three targets) last week.

More importantly, he led the team in targets the last time he faced the Ravens. He caught five of a team-leading seven targets for 47 yards, with a long reception of 25 yards and 33 yards after the catch, a 24% Target share, and a 33% target rate.

Take the OVER on his 31.5 receiving yards this week (opened at 27.5 receiving yards). It's just too low a bar to pass, given the matchup against the Ravens, who have struggled against TEs this season (not named Pat Freiermuth).

Kincaid has gone over 31.5 receiving yards in 9/14 games this season (64%). For plus-money, look at the over on his receptions as well. Kincaid has at least 3.5 catches in six of the last seven games Buffalo has been underdogs dating back to the start of the 2023 season.

Justice Hill was targeted on 6 of his 11 routes run in Week 4 against the Bills, resulting in the highest target rate (54.5%) by any running back with at least 10 routes run in a game this season.

He caught all six targets for a team-high 78 yards, a touchdown, and three additional first downs, including a 19-yard touchdown on a deep pass (20+ air yards) from Lamar Jackson.

The Bills allowed the 2nd-most completions (85) to receivers out of the backfield this season and the most yards (645) and touchdowns (7).

Hill has had four receptions in his last three healthy games and 2.5 or more catches in six of his last nine games.

Derrick Henry has gone over 1.5 catches twice this season with a healthy Hill in the lineup.

Hill also has very long TD odds (north of 5-1), which is odd given the matchup against the Bills defense, which struggles against pass-catching RBs. He scored the last time he faced Buffalo to go with two red-zone targets.

The Ravens pass-catching RB owns the highest +EV odds on BettingPros NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets for Divisional Round Weekend.

I've got a gut feeling that either Keon Coleman or Amari Cooper will find the end zone in this game. Because the Bills spread the wealth so much among their pass-catchers - they also rotate them- none of them feel like confident picks. But in a higher-scoring game, this is a chance where we can get them to score at longshot odds.

Cooper is the most appealing at +500.

But my best bet for a Buffalo pass-catcher to score is on Kincaid. He was super involved the last time he faced Baltimore. Kincaid has played in four games since returning from a three-game absence and leads the team in red-zone targets over that span.

The second-year TE hasn’t scored since Week 8. Kincaid only has four TDs in the regular season.

Like I said above, there's a lot of value in some of these longer-shot Bills/Ravens players to score 1st in this game.

The Ravens have dominated first TD scores this season (15 first TD scores) compared to just six for Buffalo.

Likely is 20-1 to score the game's first TD. Given that I'd bet on him leading Baltimore in red-zone targets with Flowers out and Andrews as the focus of the Bills' defense, I think this is an excellent value for a first TD scorer.

My Picks:

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