NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lions vs. Packers (Week 18)

The NFL regular season concludes with a potentially incredible narrative. The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers could be battling for the last remaining playoff spot in the NFC come Sunday night.

Of course, the game will only be a win-and-you’re-in game for both teams if the Seattle Seahawks lose to the Los Angeles Rams Sunday afternoon. A Seahawks win will eliminate the Lions from playoff contention, with Green Bay needing a win to knock Seattle out of the final seed.

Surely, there will be plenty of scoreboard-watching at Lambeau Field leading up to Sunday night’s kickoff. But Dan Campbell’s bunch will surely be motivated whether they’re playing for a playoff berth or trying to keep their NFC North rivals out of the postseason.

How do we handle the final game of the regular season? Let’s break it down.

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NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lions vs. Packers (Week 18)

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5), Total 49

Packers Deserved Better in First Matchup 

Let’s start by going back to November 6, when the Lions defeated the Packers 15-9 at Ford Field. The final score would suggest the Lions dominated Green Bay offensively. However, the box score suggests that wasn’t the case.

The Packers out-gained the Lions 389-254 and averaged one yard per play more than their counterparts. Green Bay also held the ball for more than 34 minutes. This game should’ve been a Packers romp.

So what went wrong? Well, Aaron Rodgers lost his mind. Rodgers threw three interceptions, all deep inside Detroit territory. It was arguably the worst game of his career, and it’s fair to say he singlehandedly cost his team that game. Eight penalties certainly didn’t help either.

The Packers also held Jared Goff to 137 yards passing, impressive considering how potent this Lions offense has been since that point.

Which Defense Can Step Up?

Neither of these defenses is particularly strong. The Packers rank 18th in defensive DVOA while Detroit still ranks 28th. The Packers schematically invite teams to run the ball and tend to play zone on the back end to prevent big plays downfield. Hence why Green Bay ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in rushing.

Detroit is a young unit that still is lacking in personnel. The Lions rank dead last when it comes to FootballOutsiders.com’s variance metric, making them the least consistent defense in the NFL.

Neither defense generates a ton of pressure either and will face sturdy offensive lines that are among the best in the league at protecting their quarterbacks.

Could Detroit’s Motivation Be a Concern? 

I wanted to quickly discuss the potential of Detroit’s motivation entering this game. Conventional wisdom says Detroit will be deflated if the Seahawks knock them out of postseason contention. But is there any coach in the league you’d expect to embrace the role of spoiler more than Dan Campbell?

Obviously, we can’t tangibly incorporate motivation into our handicapping. But I’d expect Campbell and the Lions to still play hard even if the playoffs aren’t on the line. In fact, I suspect the Lions would take more risks if they have nothing to prove. If Seattle wins, I’d expect Campbell to throw the kitchen sink and play ultra-aggressive when it comes to fourth downs, 2-point conversions and maybe some special teams tricks.

Game Pick and Prediction

This line is currently in a dead zone, and I may wait until close to kickoff to place a wager on this game. But regardless, I’ll likely roll with the quarterback and team I trust more, and that’s Green Bay.

The Packers are flawed no doubt, but they also dominated this Detroit team a couple of months ago, and that was before the Packers turned their season around. In fact, I’d almost rather the Seahawks lose Sunday afternoon to put more pressure on the Lions.

Give me Rodgers and the Packers to take care of business this time around.

The Pick: Packers -4.5

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