NFL Sunday Night Football Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chargers vs. 49ers (Week 10)
The Chargers and 49ers will square off on Sunday night in San Francisco. The Chargers come into the game 5-3, a game back from the Chiefs in the AFC West. The 49ers, on the other hand, are 4-4 and trail the Seahawks by 2 games in the NFC West. This game will have major playoff implications for both teams.
The 49ers come into the game as 7-point home favorites due in part to the injuries the Chargers are dealing with. With starting WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out for the game, and QB Justin Herbert dealing with a rib injury, the Chargers’ passing game might be in trouble against a good 49ers defense.
Below is a 3-leg parlay offered on DraftKings with great value based on past trends for these teams.
Leg 1: Christian McCaffery over 94.5 Rush Yds (+165)
Since joining the 49ers, Christian McCaffery has had an immediate impact. McCaffery’s first game with full involvement in the offense came last week against the Rams. He put up 94 yards on 18 carries with a passing, rushing, and receiving TD. It’s obvious that Kyle Shanahan is looking to use McCaffery uniquely. It’s possibly even more obvious that McCaffery is seeing a major boost in rushing efficiency in the 49ers’ one-of-a-kind offensive scheme.
Speaking of rushing efficiency, no team has allowed opposing RBs to run more efficiently than the Chargers. LA allows 6.1 yards per carry to RBs – by far the highest mark in the NFL. The 134 rushing yards allowed per game by the Chargers’ defense ranks second worst in the league. With the Chargers’ defense banged up and struggling to contain opposing RBs, I expect McCaffery to have a huge game on Sunday night.
McCaffery was able to put up 94 yards on a Rams run defense that ranks in the league’s top half. With the same volume against the Chargers’ atrocious run defense, I expect McCaffery to come in well above this mark.
Leg 2: Justin Herbert 45+ Pass Attempts (+265)
This play is the riskiest of the parlay, but there’s massive value here. Justin Herbert has averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game this season – one of the highest marks in the NFL. In the Chargers’ three losses this season, Herbert has averaged 48.0 attempts per game and hasn’t thrown the ball fewer than 45 times in any of those losses.
As a 7-point underdog, I expect the game flow will force Herbert to throw the ball frequently. This would be especially wise against the 49ers. San Francisco has the best run defense in the NFL against RBs both in terms of yards per carry (3.3) and yards per game (67.1). The Chargers already run the ball pretty infrequently, but against the 49ers, this trend should be exacerbated.
Even without their top WRs, the Chargers will be forced to rely on Herbert’s arm as they have all season.
Leg 3: Austin Ekeler 6+ Receptions (-110)
Going hand in hand with Herbert’s pass attempts prop, I love Austin Ekeler to get a ton of work in the passing game on Sunday night. Ekeler has 60 receptions in 8 games this year – this is the highest mark on the team by a margin of 23 receptions.
Ekeler has done a lot of his passing game damage in losses this season. In each of the Chargers’ three losses this year, Ekeler’s reception total has been at or above 8. He has caught 29 of his 30 targets in losses – a sign that these targets are short-yardage, high-probability plays. I anticipate the Chargers will use these short passes instead of runs in short-yardage situations, given the 49ers’ excellent run defense.
With their top two WRs out and likely to be trailing in the game, the Chargers will rely on Ekeler heavily in the passing game. If DraftKings offered a line higher than this, I’d take it, but I love the value in 6+ catches for Ekeler on Sunday.
Parlay Odds: +800
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