NFL Sunday Night Football Primer: Picks & Player Props (Colts vs. Vikings)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for the Week 9 NFL Sunday Slate from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 9’s Sunday Night Football nightcap matchup between the Colts and Vikings. In this standalone SNF breakdown, we’re laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as we hit the mid-point of the NFL regular season. From expert insights on the spread and total to can’t-miss player props, I’ll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to build off your earlier winnings and/or chase your losses from the early slate of games.
Get ready, folks-it’s time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
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Sunday Night Football Primer
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Sides:
- The favorites have won 17 of the Colts’ last 20 games.
- The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season and more than 70% ATS as an underdog (3-2 overall).
- The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
- The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last six games.
- The Colts have lost five of their last six road games.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games. They are 5-2 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
- The Vikings are 6-2-2 ATS as road favorites.
- As home favorites, the Vikings are 9-4 on the money line (69%) but just 36% ATS (5-9). They have dropped seven straight home games ATS as favorites - none of which were this large.
- All but five of the Vikings' last 21 games have been decided by eight points or less (76%).
Totals:
- Six of the last nine Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Colts’ last 11 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Only thrice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (nine starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
- With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-4 toward the over this season (four straight unders).
- Seven of the Vikings' last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Vikings are 4-3 toward the under this season. 2-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging over 41 points per game.
- Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-6-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
- The Vikings are 3-8-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
- Six of the Vikings’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
I believe we are seeing the tides turn a bit with Sam Darnold and the Vikings. After a hot start, they've dropped their last two games. It's pretty clear that the 5-0 start was probably not sustainable, given that they were playing with very low expectations. But in recent weeks, the market has demanded more from Minnesota, and they have fallen short.
Now, this isn't a suggestion to bury the Vikings for the rest of the season but to readjust expectations.
Especially with starting tackle Christian Darrisaw out for the rest of the season. I'm not sure that's being reflected in the five-point spread against the Colts, who will be trotting out old man Joe Flacco after they benched Anthony Richardson for the foreseeable future.
Gunslinging Flacco is the ultimate wild card, with a wide range of outcomes on every single dropback he takes. The guy isn't afraid to let it rip and that should help move the chains. And this matchup is tough on the road against arguably the NFL's best defense that loves to blitz. It's pitting a boom-or-bust QB against a boom-or-bust defense. Either way, fireworks are coming on Sunday night football.
However, despite the matchup, we should see an improvement from the Colts passing game. Outside the big plays, there was no ability to sustain drives given how poor AR was completing (not completing) routine passes.
This not only helps the offense but should aid the Colts defense because they won't be tasked with ALWAYS being on the field. We also saw last week the Colts get a boost to their defensive line with DeForest Buckner returning after a five-game absence.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Colts’ rush defense has allowed fewer yards per carry on inside rushes with DeForest Buckner on the field (3.4) compared to off the field (4.6) since 2020. When Buckner has been on the field, the Colts’ defense has allowed just a 5.5% explosive run rate on inside carries, compared to 11.7% with Buckner off the field.
And schematically speaking, this isn't a great spot for Sam Darnold, given his splits against man/zone defenses.
Against zone, Darnold has gone 90 for 129 (69.8%) for 1,052 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Colts have used zone coverage at the highest rate in the league this season (84.8%) while allowing the 6th-most yards per attempt in such coverage (8.2) via Next Gen Stats.
I took the under in this game very early before the Richardson benching. The total has moved slightly up to 46.5 which I still like. Vikings games at home typically go under, and the Colts usually don't dramatically exceed expectations as underdogs.
But the Flacco element to the game is so fascinating to me especially with money backing the Colts since the QB swap from +6.5 to +5 points.
The Flacco hive is elite, and I can't say I entirely disagree. But if we are just being honest, setting our emotions aside, he's probably being a tad overrated. But so isn't Darnold and the Vikings offense in this matchup.
If I had to play a side, I'd likely just ride with the Colts to cover at +5.5. But I think the sharpest play is just taking the game total under 46.5 points.
At the end of the day, this is still Sam Darnold versus Joe Flacco.
Props:
Justin Jefferson has 6+ receptions and 80+ receiving yards in 5 straight games (4th such streak of 5+ games in Vikings history), per Next Gen Stats.
Josh Downs has been targeted on 32.9% of his routes this season, the 2nd-highest target rate in the NFL (min. 100 routes). In every game he has played with Joe Flacco this season (three games), he has gone over 60.5 receiving yards. The Vikings have allowed the third most receiving TDs allowed to WRs this season. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Josh Downs has scored a touchdown in three of the Colts’ last four games as underdogs. Justin Jefferson has been targeted at the 5th-highest rate in the league in 2024 (29.9%). Downs has aligned in the slot on just 60.4% of his snaps this season (31.6% wide), down from 70.3% in his rookie year. Though Downs and Richardson connected for four receptions, 109 yards, and a touchdown in Week 8 against the Texans, Downs has been much more efficient with Joe Flacco at quarterback this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
Jordan Addison has been under 3.5 catches in every single game this season (5/5). In his last 10 games, he has gone over this number twice. Considering T.J. Hockenson is expected to return and gobble up targets, take the under on Addison.
Speaking of Hockenson, I want to be greedy while others are fearful. His receiving yards line is set at 38.5 which he hit in 13/15 games last season (6/8 with Jefferson). It's too low of a number. But it's low because he is coming off an injury so snap count/playing time etc. comes into play.
But if Hockenson returns to his normal role, he should soar past this number well above 50-plus receiving yards. The Colts are allowing the second-most catches to TEs this season and third-most TDs. Welcome to the Hock’s Nest on Sunday night football.
My Picks: