NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Titans vs. Chiefs (Week 9)

On Sunday night, the Titans and Chiefs will square off in Kansas City. Both teams lead their respective divisions, and both come into the game at 5-2. On paper, this should be a tight matchup, but the books think differently. The Chiefs are currently 12.5-point favorites, with a total on the game of 45.5. This line is reflective of the fact that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a game time decision as he recovers from an ankle injury. If Tannehill can’t go, rookie QB Malik Willis will make his second career start.

There’s plenty of uncertainty coming into the game, but I have a 4-leg parlay offered on Draftkings with great value whether Tannehill or Willis is the starter for the Titans. 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Leg 1: Titans +14.5 (-145)

With a starting QB hurt and a hostile road environment, betting on the Titans Sunday is a risky proposition. Malik Willis got a win in his first career start last week, but this was due in large part to Derrick Henry’s monster game against Houston. Willis completed just 7 of 14 passes for 61 yards and an INT. 

Despite the uncertainty at QB, I think Tennessee has what it takes to keep things close against the Chiefs. Arrowhead Stadium is rightfully considered one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, but the Chiefs haven’t played like it at home this season. Kansas City is 2-1 at home this season, with a dead-even point differential. They’re 0-3 against the spread and have allowed inferior teams (Chargers, Raiders) to play them close. Tennessee has also won five straight regular season games against the Chiefs – Mahomes has never beaten the Titans in the regular season.

If the Titans can post a passable game from whoever plays QB, their dominant run game and solid defense will be enough to keep things close Sunday night. Getting such a good price on a team that’s won five straight games to cover a 14.5-point spread is rare – I love the Titans to cover this alternate spread.

Leg 2: Derrick Henry O104.5 Rush Yards (+105)

If the Titans are going to keep things close, odds are it will be due to a monster game from Derrick Henry. Despite his high usage rate in recent years, Henry has shown no signs of falling off this season. On 166 attempts this season, Henry has posted 755 yards and 7 TDs. He’s carried the ball at least 22 times and put up at least 102 yards in each of the Titans’ last four games.

This play should also hold no matter who starts at QB on Sunday – if Tannehill plays it will open up the offense a bit for Henry, and if Willis plays the Titans will lean on their ground game even more to insulate their young QB.

I expect Henry to put up a big volume game, and it will come against a Chiefs run defense that has struggled at times this season. The Chiefs allow 4.4 yards per carry to RBs this season – this puts them in the bottom half of the league in YPC run defense despite seeing some of the lowest rushing volume of any team in the NFL. Henry will get plenty of opportunities Sunday night and should have no problem posting another big stat line.

Leg 3: Travis Kelce O69.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

While WR props have been no sure thing for the Chiefs from week to week, the one constant is Travis Kelce. Over his last four games, Kelce has 30 catches for 323 yards and 5 TDs. He’s clearly the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing game and should be central to the game plan against Tennessee.

Kelce represents a major mismatch that the Chiefs can exploit. The Titans allow the 5th most yards per catch to TEs this season. They sit around the middle of the pack in targets and receptions allowed, but the Chiefs should feed Kelce plenty no matter which looks the defense throws at them. 

With a mismatch on paper favoring Kelce, as well as my opinion that this game will be close enough that play calling shouldn’t be impacted, this is a great spot for a big game from Kelce.

Leg 4: Patrick Mahomes Longest Pass 35+ Yards (-195)

Despite the loss of Tyreek Hill this offseason, the Chiefs have been able to generate explosive plays in the passing game in 2022. In fact, in every game this season Patrick Mahomes has completed a pass play of at least 35 yards. The spacing the Chiefs generate on offense combined with Mahomes’ ability to maintain accuracy downfield allows the Kansas City receivers to make big plays. 

On the other side of the ball, the Titans sit in the bottom quarter of the league in yardage allowed per catch to both TEs and WRs. They’ve struggled to contain big plays from their opponent and now go against the best deep-ball QB in the NFL.

This prop has hit in every Chiefs game this season, and this is the best matchup they’ll see all year to make big plays happen. I’m adding this prop to the parlay with confidence.

Parlay Odds: +625

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