NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Texans vs. Lions (Week 10)
The Lions at the Texans pits a pair of division leaders against each other on Sunday Night Football. While the visitors look like a Super Bowl favorite, the latter has played up-and-down football, resulting in the hosts being underdogs. The likely trailing game script for Houston significantly influenced three of the following four legs for the same-game parlay (SGP). The other leg was selected based on the player’s talent and Houston’s defensive tendencies.
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Sunday Night Football’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
- Leg 1: C.J. Stroud Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (-130)
- Leg 2: Joe Mixon Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)
- Leg 3: Tank Dell 50+ Receiving Yards (-215)
- Leg 4: Amon-Ra St. Brown 50+ Receiving Yards (-280)
The Texans are 3.5-point underdogs, which should influence their play-calling tendencies to skew toward chucking the ball. However, they won’t necessarily have to fall behind to air it out against the Lions.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Lions have faced the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) this season. Detroit’s opponents haven’t passed at quite the same rate since Detroit’s bye in Week 5. Still, the Lions have faced a 60% situation-neutral pass rate. So, they’re a pass-funnel defense.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, C.J. Stroud has attempted 32.9 passes per game, with a median of 32. Stroud’s pass attempt average this year was despite a 52% situation-neutral pass rate. He’ll likely need to chuck it more often against the juggernaut Lions. FantasyPros projects Stroud to have 33.7 pass attempts against the Lions.
Stroud’s pass attempts would come at the expense of Joe Mixon’s rush attempts. Mixon’s been a successful workhorse in his first season for the Texans. He’s averaged 21.0 rush attempts per game this year, clearing 19.5 in three straight games and four out of six. Nevertheless, the game script and Detroit’s pass-funnel tendencies will likely work against Mixon’s rush attempts this week and leave him short of the lofty 19.5 total. If Mixon is banged up at all, even if it results in him sitting out a few plays, he’d have an uphill battle to clear 19.5 rush attempts.
A higher pass rate from the Texans would be a boon for Tank Dell’s receiving outlook. Dell had a season-high 126 receiving yards against the Jets last week. It was Dell’s third instance of topping 50 receiving yards in eight games this year after averaging 64.5 receiving yards per game in 2023.
Dell had a slow start to his sophomore campaign, working behind alpha No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins and offseason trade acquisition Stefon Diggs. The former might return from the injured reserve (IR) this week, but the latter is out for the year with a torn ACL. Whether Dell is Houston’s top healthy wideout or the Robin to Collins’ Batman, he should have ample opportunities to barbecue the Lions. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Lions have coughed up the most receiving yards per game (209.0) to wide receivers this year. Dell can take advantage of the matchup.
Detroit’s top pass-catching weapon should have a rock-solid night against a pass-funnel defense. The Texans are tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) faced this year. That rate has kicked up to 62% since Week 6.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a stud and can carve up Houston’s secondary. The Sun God is averaging 58.0 receiving yards per game this season, the lowest mark since his rookie campaign. Still, St. Brown’s underlying data is fabulous. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, St. Brown has a 31.3% air yard share, 26.9% target share, 0.29 targets per route run and a 31.2% first-read percentage this season. St. Brown should be heavily involved as long as the game is close. Even if the Lions steamroll the Texans, he should have a hand in the beatdown and amass at least 50 receiving yards.
Parlay Odds: +445
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.