Super Bowl LIX has all the makings of a great game. The Kansas City Chiefs look to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Philadelphia Eagles arguably have the most talented roster in the league. These teams played a classic two years ago. Kansas City won that game, 38-35. Each team scored five touchdowns in that contest. This year's tilt has an implied total of 49. There should be lots of scoring in this one, which means plenty of options for First Touchdown (FTD) bets.
First touchdown wagers offer better bang for your buck than most other bets you will see on the board. Because these bets are generally longshots, you may want to limit exposure to this market. That is especially true if you were to play every player listed below. Only one player can score the first touchdown of the game. That means even in a best-case scenario, you will lose on all but one of these bets.
Below are my favorite first touchdown picks, as well as my recommended bet sizes for each. I will stagger the bet sizes to ensure I profit if any of these players hit. Adjust as you see fit and best of luck.
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Super Bowl LIX First TD Scorers Prop Bets
Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The First Touchdown Scorer market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs First Touchdown Picks
- First TD Odds: +1100 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Recommended Bet Size: 0.5 Units
- First TD Odds: +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Recommended Bet Size: 0.5 Units
Chiefs pass-catchers offer the best first-touchdown value on the Super Bowl board. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the Philadelphia Eagles allowed a league-low five touchdowns to opposing running backs during the regular season. On the flip side, they gave up 22 touchdown passes. Patrick Mahomes is a generational quarterback, so it would make sense for Kansas City to keep the ball in his hands.
Another reason is the history between Mahomes and Andy Reid against Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio ran Denver's defense from 2019-2021 and led Miami's defensive attack last season. Kansas City faced Fangio's defenses eight times in that span. They scored opening-drive touchdowns in seven of those eight games. Five were touchdown passes from Mahomes. This year's Eagles defense is more talented than those other defenses, but I am going to trust Kansas City's passing offense here.
Mahomes has attempted 51 passes in this postseason. Nearly half (25) have been intended for either rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy (13) or veteran tight end Travis Kelce (12). The duo has combined for 58.9% of Kansas City's total receptions and 63% of their receiving yards during these playoffs. Worthy and Kelce make the most sense for those expecting Kansas City to score first in the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles First Touchdown Picks
- First TD Odds: +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Recommended Bet Size: 1 Unit
- First TD Odds: +700 at ESPN Bet
- Recommended Bet Size: 0.6 Units
Kansas City is generally a stout run defense. They only gave up 13 rushing touchdowns compared to 24 passing scores this year. However, the Eagles feature a prolific run game led by running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Barkley leads all players with five rushing touchdowns in this year's playoffs, while Hurts is second with four. Each player rushed for three touchdowns in the NFC Conference Championship. During the regular season, the duo combined for 27 rushing touchdowns. Barkley is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, while Hurts is a de facto goal-line running back.
Barkley was still a member of the New York Giants when these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, but Hurts was a major factor. He scored the game's first touchdown and added two more rushing touchdowns for good measure. Hurts looked to be fully recovered from his recent leg injury. An additional week of rest should only help. I like Barkley and Hurts to be Philadelphia's top threats to score the game's first touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs Longshot First Touchdown Picks
- First TD Odds: +1800 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Recommended Bet Size: 0.2 Units
One of the seven Chiefs’ first touchdowns in eight matchups against Fangio was a Patrick Mahomes rushing touchdown. Mahomes has rushed for at least 24 yards in four of his last six games against Fangio's defense. He also has a reputation for scrambling more in the playoffs. Mahomes rushed for 43 yards and two touchdowns in the AFC Conference Championship against the Buffalo Bills. He has now rushed for seven touchdowns in 20 career playoff games. In Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes ran for 44 yards against Philadelphia. Given this information, I am fine speculating on Mahomes scoring the first touchdown in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles Longshot First Touchdown Pick
- First TD Odds: +2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Recommended Bet Size: 0.2 Units
For my Eagles’ longshot first touchdown pick in this year's Super Bowl, I am going with tight end Dallas Goedert. Goedert has been heavily involved in Philadelphia's passing game. He and wide receiver A.J. Brown have a 26.1% target share in this year's playoffs. No player involved in this game has a higher target share this postseason than Goedert.
Goedert was targeted twice in the end zone last week. He drew one pass interference penalty and should have drawn a second. Kansas City only gave up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year. However, they did allow the most receiving yards in the NFL to the position. Goedert is a popular safety valve for Hurts when opponents blitz. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is notorious for putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. I expect Goedert to be heavily involved. is first touchdown price is very inviting at +2000.
More Super Bowl Betting Resources & Picks:
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