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NFL Super Bowl LIX Predictions: Why the Total Will Go Over (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

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The world will have its eyes set on New Orleans next Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs look to win a third consecutive Super Bowl against a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Eagles. This total opened at 49.5 and has bounced around 49 for the last week. The line currently sits at 48.5 - no surprise given both teams were led by strong defensive play all season.

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NFL Super Bowl LIX Predictions: Why the Total Will Go Over

Mahomes Magic

The Eagles have compiled the top-rated defense, per DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) this season. This isn't unfamiliar territory for Patrick Mahomes and company, especially on the biggest stage. Each of the last two seasons the Chiefs took on one of the top DVOA defenses in the league.

The 2022 Eagles finished the year ranked third while the 2023 49ers ended up fourth. Both teams were top five against the pass. Mahomes averaged 260 yards passing in those games and combined for five touchdowns through the air. It comes as no surprise both contests went over their total.

Eagles' Efficient Offense

In that previous matchup between these two teams, Super Bowl LVII, there was a boom of scoring as the Chiefs won 38-35. The Eagles put up 417 yards of total offense and Jalen Hurts threw for over 300 yards on the Kansas City defense. We've seen the Eagles explode offensively in the last few weeks of this year’s playoffs. They've scored 35 points per game (PPG) through this postseason and have been able to hit home run plays along the way.

For the Eagles to put up points on this Kansas City defense they'll need to throw the ball. Jalen Hurts hasn't put up eye-popping numbers with his arm but you don’t need to when you have a back who can eclipse 2,000 yards. Diving into Hurts' numbers shows the efficiency is there. He averaged 8.0 yards per attempt (YPA), which was good enough for fourth amongst qualifying passers and his QB Rating trailed only Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. He's capable of attacking this Kansas City defense through the air if the running game isn't having as much success.

This should be a nice fast, indoor track for both offenses. Although both defenses led the way all year, the numbers suggest we may see an offensive explosion next Sunday. Mahomes has routinely stepped up in these situations and the stage will not be too big for Philadelphia. If history is any indication when two similar squads met in the Super Bowl two years ago, this game will go over the total.

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