NFL Super Bowl LIX Sports Betting Preview: Why the Chiefs Will Win (2025)

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The world will have its eyes set on New Orleans next Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs look to win a third consecutive Super Bowl against a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Eagles. The line opened at Chiefs -1.5 on Sunday after the AFC Championship game and it has not budged yet. Why should it? 

The Eagles have had one of the most impressive running attacks we've seen in a long time. Their defense is one of the best in the league with the second-fewest points against and they finished sixth in takeaways. The Chiefs are only 8-10-1 against the spread (ATS) including the playoffs, so the Eagles seem like a live dog. I'm here to tell you why that narrative is false and why you should take the Chiefs.

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Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview: The Case for the Kansas City Chiefs

Shutdown Saquon Barkley

In Week 1 against Baltimore, Kansas City was able to bottle up Derrick Henry for 46 yards on 13 carries. However, that allowed Lamar Jackson to run for 122 yards on 16 carries. Since that Week 1 victory, they haven't allowed a single player - running back or quarterback - to eclipse the century mark. This includes matchups against Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon and James Cook, to name a few. Kansas City's run defense has been stout, allowing just 101.8 yards per game during the regular season.

Holding Saquon Barkley to fewer than 100 yards has been a recipe for success for opponents this season - if they've been able to do it. The talented back has only been held under that mark five times this year but the Eagles are only 3-2 straight up (SU) and 2-3 ATS in those games. They went 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS when Barkley eclipsed 100 yards on the ground. The Chiefs will be looking to force the Eagles to rely on what has been an inconsistent pass game. They can do it.

Short Favorite Success

Coming into this Super Bowl, the Chiefs have compiled a 17-2 record - 17-1 when Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the starting lineup are on the field. At times, the season has felt clunky and disjointed for Kansas City. They only rank eighth in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), behind teams like Minnesota, Green Bay and Denver. They weren't a top-10 offense passing or running by any typical metric. The defense was strong, but it wasn't elite. This led to quite a few games where they were heavy favorites that came down to the wire.

However, when lines were tight, the Chiefs always came through. Five times during the regular season and postseason, Kansas City found itself as a 3.5-point favorite or shorter. Five times, Patrick Mahomes and company covered the line by an average of 5.4 points.

After winning two Super Bowls in a row, the regular season can feel like a grind. If you look at the results and the stats for Kansas City this year, it looks like a situation where they were playing with their food. This is the Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as short favorites. They haven't let us down in these spots all season and there is no reason to expect anything different on the biggest stage.

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