NFL Super Bowl LIX Sunday Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets

Author imageby Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_|Feb 7, 2025

Sunday, February 9th. The stage is set for Super Bowl LIX, where the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will battle for NFL supremacy in a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LVII. This clash promises action-packed football, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors alike.

With two of the league’s best teams facing off, there's no shortage of intrigue from a betting perspective. Whether you're analyzing prop bets, spreads, totals or same-game parlays (SGPs), the biggest game of the year offers countless opportunities to get in on the action.

From individual player props to total points and game spreads, this Super Bowl showdown is stacked with compelling betting angles. Let's break down what to watch for and how to maximize your bets for the NFL's grand finale.

This primer is an early look at Super Bowl LIX, so keep an eye out for updates as we get more information regarding injuries the week of the game.

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DraftKings Super Bowl 2025

NFL Super Bowl LIX Sunday Betting Primer

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • In the Eagles' last six games, the first score has been an Eagles touchdown.
  • The Eagles are 3-0 as underdogs this season (100% against the spread/ATS).
  • The Eagles have won 15 of their last 16 games.
  • The Eagles have won the first half in 10 straight games.
  • The Eagles have won 15 of their last 21 games as favorites (71%).
  • The Eagles have been the first team to score 20 points in their last 16 games.
  • The Eagles have been the first team to score 21 points in their last 15 games.
  • The Eagles have scored first in each of their last seven games.
  • The Eagles are 6-14-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season (27%).
  • They covered just six spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).
  • The Chiefs have a -325 implied team total of over 19.5 points, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 14 of the Eagles' last 25 games (56%).
  • The Eagles have covered four of their last five games when they have been favored by 4.5 points or more at home this season. The average margin of victory in those contests was greater than 10 points. And they were all against playoff teams (including the Commanders).
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Eagles are 18-12 ATS as home favorites in their last 29 games (59%).
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 3-1 in Super Bowls, both straight up (SU) and ATS.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams that held a winning record (74%).
  • Kansas City has played four games with a +/- 2-point spread since last year’s Super Bowl. They won thrice but lost against the Bills in the regular season.
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 13 games (69%).
  • Chiefs starters have won 23 of their last 24 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 18 games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 14 of their last 25 games (58%).
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight postseason games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 20 of the Chiefs’ last 32 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Kansas City is 9-10-1 as road favorites (45%).
  • The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS this season, covering spreads of -6.5 points or greater.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Eagles' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 11 postseason games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Eagles’ last 16 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Eagles' last 11 games in January have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 3-8 toward the over at home this season (over 41.5 points per game).
  • Six of the Eagles' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 16-21 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 10-9 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023.
  • Sixteen of the Chiefs’ last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 28, 67%).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just four teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11, the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, the Panthers in Week 12 and the Broncos in Week 18).
  • The Chiefs are 1-3 O/U in Super Bowls under Mahomes. The only over was against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
  • All but one of the Chiefs Super Bowls saw 10 points scored in the first quarter - that being the rematch of the 49ers and Chiefs last season.
  • The Eagles have hit the first quarter OVER in six straight (10 or more points) - excluding Week 18.
  • KC is 3-1 toward the first quarter over at 10 points (although the under was at nine points).
  • KC has averaged 7.5 points in the first quarter against Vic Fangio defenses (last eight matchups).
  • Three of the Chiefs’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • KC is 5-5 O/U at home this season, averaging OVER 42 points per game.
  • Twenty of the Chiefs' last 27 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (74%).

Overall:

It's Chiefs-Eagles in a rematch of a Super Bowl played a few years back when Kansas City emerged victorious 38-35.

Both teams are very different from their 2022 counterparts, especially on the Eagles’ side.

Philadelphia has an elite rushing attack spearheaded by running back Saquon Barkley and a suffocating defense led by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

When the Philadelphia defense plays well, they win and cover. The Eagles are 16-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (69%).

It is interesting to note that their defense has allowed over 20 points per game in back-to-back weeks for the first time since Weeks 1-2. They have also allowed 300+ yards on defense in three straight games.

For the Chiefs to win they have to find a way to slow down Barkley - easier said than done. Especially because Kansas City’s run defense has been very suspect in the second half of the season.

Since Week 12, six of the last eight starting backs the Chiefs faced have rushed over their closing-line projection. Two of those runners (Joe Mixon and James Cook) also rushed for more yards in the second matchup against Kansas City.

Even so, the Chiefs defense recorded the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL this season (10.7%) – Next Gen Stats.

They have been even more efficient in bringing down opposing ball carriers during their playoff run, recording an 8.6% missed tackle rate. Linebacker Leo Chenal has missed just 2 tackles all season including the playoffs, equating to the lowest missed tackle rate among linebackers (3.4%, min. 50 tackle attempts).

Barkley has a rush of 22+ yards in eight of his last 10 games. Kansas City has allowed such a long rush in four of their last seven games. The prop line is listed at 25.5 (up from 23.5) rushing yards for his longest rush in the Super Bowl.

But will Barkley's rushing be enough to get Philly the win? I don't think so.

I've discussed how 20 points is a key number for the Eagles; when they keep opponents below, they win/cover.

Philly has allowed more than 20 points in seven games this season. They are 4-3 straight up and 2-5 ATS in those contests.

The Chiefs have a 25.5-point implied team total. They have scored 21+ points against all non-division opponents this season.

Even though Kansas City’s offense hasn't lit up the scoreboard much this season, they might be hitting their stride.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Patrick Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback expected points added (EPA) with a mark of +21.5 in the Chiefs' AFC Championship game win over the Bills. His top three games by dropback EPA this season have all come over his last four games. Over that time frame, Mahomes has also registered four of his five quickest throw times in a game this season (2.59 seconds against the Bills).

Mahomes has tossed for 250+ passing yards in seven of his last 12 games. All but three quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford) have finished under their passing yards projection versus Philly's defense since their bye week.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes has targeted a pass behind the line of scrimmage on a career-high 26.9% of his total attempts this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

The Chiefs converted a league-high 45 first downs across his 156 passes targeted behind the line of scrimmage. Mahomes totaled the 2nd-most passing yards (851) on passes targeted behind the line of scrimmage this season, now accounting for five of the top six seasons by most yards on passes targeted behind the line of scrimmage since 2016. The Eagles defense allowed the fewest yards per attempt (4.1) and lowest success rate (29.9%) to passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage this season.

The Chiefs quarterback also scrambled to run on six of his 34 dropbacks against the Bills in the AFC Championship, his second-highest scramble rate in a game in his career (17.4%).

The only other game Mahomes scrambled more was in his first career matchup against the Bills in Week 6 of 2020 (18.2%). Mahomes converted a first down on five of his six scramble runs, tying a career-high, while also scoring his second touchdown on a designed run in his career. Across nine career matchups, Mahomes has scrambled on 8.8% of his dropbacks against the Bills, compared to 6.1% against all other opponents.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 22nd in EPA/allowed against quarterback scrambles. Mahomes has 29+ rushing yards in his four Super Bowl appearances. He has also averaged over seven rush attempts per game in those four games. I’d be wary of betting the over on the rushing yardage, just in case you fall victim to a bad beat by some late kneel-downs.

Vic Fangio is familiar with the Chiefs, as he was the head coach in Denver from 2019-2021 and was the defensive coordinator in Miami during the 2023 season. Another fun nugget: Fangio was hired by the Eagles before the 2022 Super Bowl as a consultant to help the defense ahead of the Chiefs matchup. Whatever he "offered" didn't help.

In the eight matchups between Kansas City and Fangio defenses dating back to 2019, the Chiefs are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS and 2-6 toward the over.

The combination of Mahomes and Andy Reid has always had the upper hand against Fangio’s defenses. I'd expect nothing less with Reid given the extra time to prepare for the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs thrive in close games (11-0 this season) and a 1.5-point spread suggests it will be the same situation in New Orleans.

I said last week that the best chance for Buffalo to win was to blow out Kansas City, and they ultimately fell short. The game was kept tight, and they lost in the fourth quarter.

Kansas City is on the verge of a three-peat with one more victory. I see no reason to shy away from betting on them now. There's a reason why in my futures bets portfolio this season I bet the Eagles to win the NFC and the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

When all the chips are down, you take Mahomes. The betting trends back him up. The Chiefs have won each of their last 18 games as favorites. Mahomes is 17-3 in the postseason with his only losses coming against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have won nine straight postseason games.

As for the total, I dropped the nugget earlier about how KC matchups against Fangio have shied toward the under.

Most of the trends also suggest that the under is the sharp play:

  • Nine of the Eagles' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 11 postseason games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Eagles’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 16-21 O/U since the start of 2023, and 7-12 toward the over on the road.
  • Philadelphia has allowed more than 23 points just three times this season.
  • Sixteen of the Chiefs’ last 26 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 28, 67%).
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just four teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11, the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, the Panthers in Week 12 and the Broncos in Week 18).
  • The Chiefs are 1-3 O/U in Super Bowls under Mahomes. The only over was against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

Considering how these defenses have fared in points allowed per game, this game projects closer to low-to-mid 20-point scores rather than high-20s/low-30s. I think this game total is going to come down to the end, so it might be best to shy away altogether (maybe a better part of a teaser leg). But ultimately, the trends have me slightly on the under.

The Eagles are 1-3 toward the over in games that closed at 49 points or higher. Kansas City has only played in two games with at least a 48-point total, going 1-1 O/U. The over was last week's game against the Bills (over 49 points).

My “hand in the dirt” analysis also supports the under. The Chiefs don’t create explosive plays on offense and the Eagles have the best defense in the league. Conversely, Philly’s offense is related to explosive rushes. KC ranks inside the top 5 in the fewest rushes of 10-plus yards this season. They are the No. 1 defense in the fewest missed tackles. Barkley has averaged “only” 100 rushing yards per game in contests where he has forced fewer than four missed tackles.

FanDuel Super Bowl 2025

Props:

Saquon Barkley has recorded a rush attempt of 22+ yards in eight of his last 10 games. The line is listed at 23.5 rushing yards for his longest rush in the Super Bowl.

Dallas Goedert was reliable in the NFC Championship Game, hauling in seven of his nine targets for 85 yards with a long of 26. He was targeted on 31% of his routes run.

He has 47+ receiving yards in three straight favorable matchups. The Chiefs have allowed eight of their last 10 opposing tight ends to go OVER their projected receiving props number. His yards are the market to attack in the Super Bowl.

Case in point, Dallas Goedert going OVER his receiving yards prop has been the most bet Super Bowl prop at BetMGM, according to John Ewing. The line has moved dramatically up.

But how about the receptions? Take the UNDER on 4.5 receptions for Goedert.

There's not usually enough passing volume to go around for him to catch five balls. He has gone UNDER 4.5 catches in five of his last six games. Went UNDER in all but two games this season alongside a healthy A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (both against division-rival Washington Commanders). Dating back to 2023, Goedert has gone UNDER 4.5 receptions in nine of his last 14 games (64%) with his two receiver teammates healthy.

If you combine the OVER on his receiving yards with the UNDER on his receptions, you can get +750 odds. He's done that in 50% of his games over the last month.

The Goedert receptions prop is also listed at plus-money at some sportsbooks, which doesn’t make a ton of sense given he has 4.5 catches once in his last six games.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs have pressed opposing players aligned outside on 125 of 264 snaps (47.3%) this postseason.

Brown has recorded 41 catches for a league-high 772 yards on passes outside the numbers and a league-high 38% target rate per route run when pressed this season.

DeVonta Smith caught all four of his targets for 45 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Smith did pick up a defensive pass interference call in the end zone that ultimately resulted in a Hurts rushing score.

Smith has played one game this season with a healthy A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when he has gone OVER 5.5 receptions.

Over the past two seasons, Smith has gone UNDER 5.5 catches with his two teammates healthy in 80% of his games (16/20).

But similar to the Goedert prop, the Slim Reaper should be able to get there with receiving yards.

Smith has 70+ yards in his last five games with the Eagles as underdogs (79+ in two games this season). Take the OVER on 52.5 receiving yards. Projections have him north of 54 receiving yards.

According to Next Gen Stats…

Smith recorded 72 of his team-high 100 receiving yards on targets outside the numbers in Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs, his 5th-most most in a game in his career. Smith has found success outside the numbers in all three games in his career against the Chiefs, going for 87 yards in Week 4, 2021 (most in career) and 66 yards in Week 11, 2023 (9th-most in career). He has averaged 75 yards per game on receptions outside the numbers in his career against the Chiefs, more than any other team he has faced.
In 3 career games versus the Chiefs, Smith has 99, 100 and 122 yards (321).
According to NFL MyInsideEdge, the Chiefs have allowed Over 49.5 receiving yards to an opposing WR in 15 of 17 games (88%) this season.
For longer shot odds, look for Smith to lead all players in receiving yards (+600).

Kareem Hunt led the ground game with 17 carries for 64 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and a touchdown (three red-zone carries) versus the Buffalo Bills. Four of the last five running backs Philly has faced have gone OVER their rushing yards projection.

Isiah Pacheco added 12 yards on five attempts (one red-zone carry on a direct snap from the 3-yard line). Hunt doubled Pacheco's carries four versus eight in the first half while they split routes run out of the backfield.

But Hunt's number for the Super Bowl has been boosted up to 43.5 rushing yards (DraftKings Sportsbook).

Meanwhile, Pacheco has gone UNDER 23.5 rushing yards in three straight games.

The other player prop I noticed Hunt has is to NOT score a TD. This market is not usually offered but it is for the Super Bowl. It’s juicy at -170 but betting on the most volatile event in football to not happen is an intriguing proposition. The Eagles have allowed just six rushing TDs all season to RBs (70% of games RBs have not scored). They have the No. 1-ranked run defense in the red zone according to Next Gen Stats.

Xavier Worthy shined as Mahomes' favorite target, hauling in six of his seven targets for 85 yards and an 11-yard touchdown. He caught all five of his targets in the first half for 62 yards. He was heavily involved in the red zone.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Worthy went in motion on 38.5% of his snaps, the highest single-game motion rate of his career (minimum 10 snaps), logging two carries for 16 yards while catching both of his targets for 33 yards.

Worthy has gone in motion on 33.7% of his snaps this postseason, up from his 18.2% motion rate in the regular season.

Worthy's target rate on plays where he goes in motion has also jumped significantly, increasing from 26.0% in the regular season (9 receptions, 69 yards) to 42.9% in the postseason (5 receptions, 66 yards). Travis Kelce, who had led Chiefs' receivers in postseason motion rate from 2019-2023 (min. 100 snaps), has seen his motion rate drop from 29.2% over that span to 16.8% this postseason.

Worthy has four catches or more in nine straight games (five or more in seven straight), with 40+ yards in all contests. Take the OVER on Worthy's 5.5 receptions and 55.5 receiving yards props this week.

Rashee Rice had a monster game in last year's playoff game against the Miami Dolphins. Their defense was led by current Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

It was the second time the Chiefs played the Fangio-led Dolphins, the first being on a neutral field (Germany). Not only did that game fly way under the 51.5-point total despite a close Chiefs -1.5 spread, but Rice scored the first touchdown. He also scored the first touchdown in the playoff matchup versus Miami.

Given that Worthy is in the Rice role, I will take him to score the game's first touchdown at 12-1 odds. He’s red hot and already has seen a ton of volume in the red zone. Worthy’s 10 touchdowns this season are the most of any player in the Super Bowl not named Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley.

Marquise Brown caught three passes for 35 yards in the AFC Championship Game.

Brown saw two more deep targets as he continues to be used downfield in the Chiefs' offense. There is a clear effort to get him the ball. On the Chiefs' first drive, he caught two passes on the first two attempts. Out of halftime, he again received the first passing attempt.

Brown to Catch a Pass on the first Chiefs drive on DraftKings Sportsbook is listed at +170.

Brown getting involved from the get-go was true in the divisional round as well (targeted on the opening drive). Brown has had a target on the Chiefs’ opening drive in three of his four games played this season.

Because I am high on Brown catching a pass from the get-go, I like spreading out smaller wagers on him to catch the first pass (+1000), catch the first pass for KC (+500) etc.

But I also really like betting on both teams to complete their pass of the game.

Both Teams to Complete Their 1st Pass Attempt is listed at -110. In the last four Chiefs Super Bowls, the teams are 7-1 completing their first pass attempt. These teams have had two weeks to prepare and know exactly how they are going to start each of their opening drives.

Travis Kelce snapped his 14 straight games of 70+ receiving yards in the postseason against the Bills. Even so, Kelce has still averaged just under one touchdown per playoff game in his last 12 postseason appearances.

Samaje Perine (17 yards), Isiah Pacheco (12 yards), DeAndre Hopkins (11 yards) and Kareem Hunt (six yards) each made smaller contributions. Hopkins only ran nine routes behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. He had an end zone target but was otherwise not involved.

Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in eight of his last nine games played with the Chiefs this season, including the last three games with Brown in the starting lineup.

If Hopkins is going to make any worthwhile contribution, it will be catching a red-zone touchdown. He has the second-highest expected value on his anytime touchdown prop at +600, according to the BettingPros Anytime TD Report.

Perine has at least 6.5 receiving yards in six of his last seven games played (14 out of 15 toward the over this season). He had zero receiving yards until the last play of the game that iced the win for the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

The fact that it came down to the final play last week is worrisome. But his overall consistency in getting to at least seven receiving yards every week is hard to ignore. The projections agree toward the over with it varying between eight and 11 yards across several different platforms.

Jalen Hurts has recorded more than 27.5 pass attempts thrice since the Eagles' bye week (11 out of 14 games, 79% hit rate toward the under).

Even so, the BettingPros projections have Hurts closer to 211-214 passing yards. One QB since Week 7 has thrown for fewer than 200 yards versus KC Chiefs defense.

Hurts has a 66% over hit rate as an underdog with 236 passing yards in each contest (2/3). He fell short versus Baltimore (but didn't throw in the second half at all). He went over in the NFC Championship Game against the Commanders.

Hurts has gone over his passing yards prop at 212.5 passing yards in 4/7 games this season with Smith, AJB and DG in the lineup this season.

If I were to be looking at SGPs for the Super Bowl, they would start with Hurts passing props. Pretty easy to see him going over if the Eagles enter into a negative game script, and then it’s wheels up with the rest of the correlation.

I think one of my favorite longshot bets to correlate is FanDuel’s Triple Crown: Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Saquon Barkley is +1600 for them to lead the game in passing, receiving and rushing respectively.

The Eagles QB has also scored in in 11 of his last 15 games (67%). He has 18 TDs scored this season. 4 of last 5 games Hurts has played with his top trio of pass-catchers he has scored a touchdown.

One of the biggest betting edges you can get betting on Super Bowl 59 is on anything related to the tush-push. Hurts multiple TDs, octopus, 2-point conversion, 4th down conversions etc.

An “octopus” is when a player scores a two-point conversion after the subsequent touchdown. Hurts is +2000 to score an octopus per FanDuel Sportsbook. Hurts became the first player to hit the octopus prop during the 2023 Super Bowl.

Philadelphia attempted 27 fourth-down conversions and converted 73% of those attempts during the regular season, the third-best rate in the NFL. Last six games, they are have completed all of their fourth down conversion attempts (6/6).

The Eagles had four two-point attempts this season and three involved the same player who scored the touchdown before it. The Chiefs attempted two two-point conversions this season

Speaking of attempts, I will not be buying an idea that we will get some non-QB pass attempts in the Super Bowl. Here’s why.

  1. The Chiefs have never attempted a non-QB pass in 8 games against Vic Fangio defenses.
  2. Zero non-QB have attempted passes for the Eagles or Chiefs this season.
  3. In the four Chiefs Super Bowls they have had zero non-QBs attempt a pass.

I’m taking the under on 2.5 players to attempt a pass.

I do like the over on the Chiefs sack total. 2.5 is the line. Hurts was sacked on averaged 2.7 times per game this season generating the NFL’s second-highest sack rate. KC averaged 2.6 sacks per game during the regular season. KC is is also listed at -105 to have the most sacks in the game.

My last prop goes against the Xavier Worthy “Swiftie Special” but it’s much more likely to hit. The Eagles to score the longest TD is listed at -110 odds. We know that the Eagles have been one of the most explosive offenses this season. Only the Ravens generated more plays of 40-plus yards.

The Chiefs had the second-worst explosive play rate in the NFL in 2024 (10.6%), per NGS. Philadelphia has also allowed the lowest explosive play rate in the regular season at 10.7%.

The Eagles scored 18 TD of 20-plus yards during the regular season. The Chiefs scored seven (one of which was defensive).

My Picks:

Swiftie Specials (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Two Is Better Than One: Two (or more) Successful 2-Point Conversions in the Game (+950)
  • Deja Vu: KC Chiefs to Win by Exactly 3 Points (+750)
  • Blank Space: Xavier Worthy to Have a 50+ Yard Reception (+1600)

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