NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 1: Picks & Predictions (2023)
An increasingly popular way to bet on the NFL and stay involved for most of the season is a survivor pool (pick one winner of an NFL game each win, but you cannot use the same team twice). Some pools have a hefty entry fee, and many participants can have payouts in the tens of thousands of dollars.
Depending on the size of the pool, one may employ different strategies. For example, if a pool has few contestants, one may use a less risky strategy and pick a big favorite each week. On the other hand, if one is trying to beat a pool of thousands of people, they may employ a contrarian style. A way to be contrarian is to pick teams that are less likely to be selected by others and save the better teams for later in the season, while others may already have used them.
Each week, I will advise which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors that don’t enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on moneylines.
NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 1: Picks & Predictions (2023)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 1:
Week 1 NFL Moneyline Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Baltimore Ravens | -480 |
| Washington Commanders | -330 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -290 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -245 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -245 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -210 |
| Denver Broncos | -210 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -184 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -176 |
| New Orleans Saints | -166 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -166 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -152 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -138 |
| Buffalo Bills | -138 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -134 |
| Chicago Bears | -112 |
The Ravens are the only double-digit favorite on the Week 1 slate, and the defense is likely licking its chops to face Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in his first NFL start. Stroud may have a bright future but could be in for a rough beginning to the season, as his first six preseason drives resulted in just three points. Meanwhile, many suggest this is the best offensive supporting cast that Lamar Jackson has ever had in Baltimore, after drafting Zay Flowers (78 rec, 1,077 yds, 12 touchdowns in 12 games at Boston College last season) and acquiring Odell Beckham Jr. (2,288 yards after the catch ranked t-10th in the NFL from 2014-19). Only one of Baltimore’s first eight opponents made the playoffs last year, so there will be plenty of excellent opportunities to use the Ravens in survivor pools. No one ever wants to lose their survivor pool entries in Week 1, and the Ravens are as safe a pick as there is.
Washington instantly became a solid survivor pool Week 1 pick once Arizona declared quarterback Kyler Murray was placed on the PUP list and will miss at least the season’s first four games. The Cardinals have little to work with in the quarterback room, as their releasing of Colt McCoy meant either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune would start Week 1. While Commanders quarterback Sam Howell only made one start himself last season, at least he is backed by a defense that ranked third in total yards allowed last year. Tne Cardinals finished last season on a seven-game losing streak, and we cannot envision them stealing this Week 1 road contest.
Minnesota lost many key parts from last year’s squad that won the NFC North for the first time since 2017, most notably Dalvin Cook (Jets), Adam Thielen (Panthers), Eric Kendricks (Chargers), Za’Darius Smith (Browns), Patrick Peterson (Steelers) and Dalvin Tomlinson (Browns). The Vikings may have been one of the luckiest teams in recent memory, going 11-0 in one-score games last year. And while Minnesota’s defense ranked in the bottom three in yards per game, passing yards per game and points per game allowed, we have faith that new defensive coordinator Brian Flores can get things turned around. In any event, we do not trust Baker Mayfield leading the Tampa Bay offense, as his 25 Total QBR was the worst in the NFL last season.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Kansas City Chiefs (-290), Seattle Seahawks (-245), Jacksonville Jaguars (-210)
Many who fear losing their survivor pool entries in Week 1 will go to the comfort zone of picking the defending Super Bowl champions. However, Detroit caught fire with eight wins in its final 10 games last year, with quarterback Jared Goff finishing with a top-five QBR and leading a top-five scoring offense. The Lions should have plenty of offense to keep up with the Chiefs, who lost two wide receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman) and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Kansas City will also be starting two new tackles on the offensive line (Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor).
The Rams followed up a Super Bowl title in 2021 with five wins last season, their worst win total since 2016. However, despite such a poor season, their two meetings with the Seahawks were decided by just seven total points, including a Week 18 matchup where Seattle was in a “win-and-in†situation with the playoffs looming. Los Angeles may be without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, which would tilt things massively in the Seahawks’ favor, but we still believe there are many better games to choose from.
The Jaguars finished last in the AFC South every year from 2018-21, then won the division and had their first winning season in five years in 2022. Jacksonville’s stock rises as Trevor Lawrence gets more comfortable in the NFL. And while Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson is making his NFL debut, his unique skill set and rushing ability could give the Jaguars defense fits. Colts quarterbacks combined for a 37 Total QBR 37 (ranked 27th), and the offense averaged 4.8 yards per play (30th) and ranked dead-last with a 49% Pass Block Win Rate. If this game were in Jacksonville, we would make the Jaguars one of our “safest picks,†but we advise staying away from this road divisional matchup this week.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Atlanta Falcons (-176)
The Falcons may be the second-favorite in a weak NFC South, but this is the definition of a contrarian play, as an Atlanta team that has not had a winning record since 2017 does not typically inspire confidence in a survivor pool. We seem to be picking on rookie quarterbacks in their first starts, but Panthers rookie Bryce Young went 7-of-12, averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, had a 70.1 passer rating and faced pressure 36% of the time in his first two preseason starts. Carolina has had five consecutive losing seasons, and we expect its offense, which ranked 20th in scoring last year, to maybe take a step back under a rookie quarterback.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.