NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 10: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

Favorites absolutely dominated in Week 9, going 14-1 SU, with the only loss coming by the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans’ 23-22 loss to the Carolina Panthers was enough to cost third-year head coach Dennis Allen his job, but our readers avoided that landmine if they heeded our advice with the Tennessee Titans as a relatively cheap -166 moneyline favorite as a contrarian play.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 10

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-480), Los Angeles Chargers (-390), Chicago Bears (-275)

The Chiefs might be on a short week having played on Monday Night, but the Broncos were just torched by the Ravens offense. Denver allowed scores on seven of Baltimore’s first eight drives (five touchdowns and two field goals), and it allowed season-highs in points (41), total yards (396) and passing yards (269). The Chiefs had won 16 consecutive games against the Broncos before last year’s loss in Denver, and the Broncos have not won in Arrowhead since 2015.

The Chargers have already matched their win total from last season (five games), and have rode a stout defense to that success. Los Angeles leads the NFL in points allowed (12.6 points per game), and is the sixth team since 1990 to hold its first eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chargers have been a dominant team in most of their wins, as they have three wins by 17 or more points thus far (their most since 2017). They should prove to be too much for a Titans team that has just two wins on the season, against the Tua-less Dolphins and the hapless Patriots.

The Bears, despite losing back-to-back games to the Commanders (on a last-second Hail Mary) and the Cardinals, will serve as a solid survivor pool pick option considering that they are 4-0 at home with a +58 point differential in those home contests. Survivor pool contestants should take one last look at the injury report before locking Chicago in as their selection, as Caleb Williams suffered an ankle injury on the final play of the loss to Arizona. Early reports suggest that he avoided serious injury, but it is best to be safe than sorry.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

San Francisco 49ers (-300), Buffalo Bills (-250)

The 49ers hit the road to face a Buccaneers team that is coming off a Monday night game against the Chiefs. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield entered the Chiefs game leading the NFL with 21 passing touchdowns and second with 2,189 passing yards. San Francisco is still a big question mark given all the injuries it has had to deal with lately, and I would prefer to see it string together several victories (with a healthy Christian McCaffrey) before I confidently back the 49ers in a survivor pool.

The Bills lead the AFC East by four games after improving to 4-0 at home for the first time since 2017 with a last-second win over the Dolphins. However, I fear complacency could set in for the Bills after building such a big division lead. In addition, this road game against the Colts is a bit of a lookahead spot, with Buffalo’s next two games coming against the Chiefs and 49ers.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

New York Giants (-240)

Contrarian plays are meant to put a little pit in one’s stomach, and this one certainly qualifies, with the Giants taking on the Panthers in Germany this week.

The Giants have matched their longest losing streak (four games) in all three seasons under head coach Brian Daboll, and fell to 0-5 at home for the first time since 1974. But perhaps playing overseas is exactly the recipe New York needs to scratch out a victory, and this is still the same Panthers team that lost five straight games by 10-plus points for the first time in franchise history prior to last week’s win. In addition, Carolina endured four losing streaks of five or more games since the start of last season, and Bryce Young is 0-10 in his career as a starter away from home.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.