NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 10: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Week 9 was largely uneventful in survivor pools (that’s a good thing!) as favorites went 12-2 SU, with the only losses coming from the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. We tipped the Falcons as a risky play in last week’s column but did not account for the newly acquired Joshua Dobbs being thrust into action so quickly and leading the Minnesota Vikings to victory just five days after joining the team.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 10 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Dallas Cowboys | -1500 |
| Buffalo Bills | -405 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -320 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -270 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -245 |
| Chicago Bears | -190 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -178 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -162 |
| New Orleans Saints | -136 |
| Detroit Lions | -132 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -126 |
| New York Jets | -124 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -118 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -116 |
Safest Picks
Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals
If you have Dallas available in your survivor pools, the time to use it is now, as you are basically being handed a free week of advancement in survivor pools with the Giants starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback. We would have selected Dallas even if New York still had a healthy Daniel Jones under center, as the Cowboys have won five straight in this rivalry and 12 of the previous 13. In addition, Dallas has won 11 straight home games, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as favorites, and the Giants refuse to let their third-string quarterback air the ball out, as DeVito has attempted just 27 passes in two games.
Buffalo is a disappointing 5-4 through what many would have considered the easiest part of their schedule. And with road trips looming to Philadelphia, Kansas City, Miami, and Los Angeles in the second half of the year, home wins against teams like Denver become a must. Josh Allen is amid his first five-game ATS losing streak of his career, but he is 15-7 SU in night games, including an 8-1 SU record at home. Denver is coming off a bye week and has won two consecutive games, but the Bills will not squander this opportunity for an important victory.
The Bengals are getting hot, largely because of the improved play and health of quarterback Joe Burrow. In Weeks 1-4, Burrow went 1-3 with a 57.6% completion percentage, averaged 182.0 passing yards per game, had two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 69.1. In Weeks 5-9, Burrow and the Bengals are 4-0, with him averaging a 75.8% completion percentage, 283.3 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, and a 111.2 passer rating. The win-loss record, completion percentage, touchdowns, and passer rating all are best or tied for the best among quarterbacks with three-plus starts since Week 5. While Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a record-setting 470 passing yards and five-touchdown performance for a rookie quarterback, Cincinnati is playing too well to be upset at home.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Chicago Bears, New York Jets
We are putting the Bears in the risky play category if Justin Fields is ruled out, and they trot out Tyson Bagent at quarterback again. Chicago (2-7) is off to its worst start since 2016. However, while Panthers rookie Bryce Young is being ridiculed for throwing two pick-sixes last week (his third game with two-plus interceptions), he has done some good things as well, like joining Justin Herbert as the only quarterbacks since the merger with 20-plus completions in their first seven NFL games. In addition, Bagent has turnover issues of his own (two touchdowns and four turnovers in his three starts) and is largely responsible for the Bears having a -5 turnover margin for the first time since 2016. Carolina's defense finally showed some life and held up well in the trenches last week. Indianapolis entered the game ranked ninth in rushing (129.0 yards per game), while Carolina had ranked 29th in rush defense (139.4 yards per game allowed). However, the Panthers held the Colts to 78 yards rushing and 2.6 yards per carry, and playing mistake-free football as they had each of the two weeks prior could lead to Carolina's first road cover (0-4 ATS) and outright win of the season.
The Jets have beaten Buffalo, are the only team to have beaten Philadelphia, and went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs. However, all of those results came in home games, and while New York’s defense is likely licking its chops to face Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell, the Jets offense cannot be trusted. New York’s offense ranks 30th in points per game (16.5), 31st in yards per game (272.9), 30th in passing yards per game (169.5) and last in third-down percentage (22%). Thus, if its defense is not forcing turnovers at a high rate, the Jets can lose to anyone in the league because of poor quarterback play and a shoddy offensive line.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Seattle Seahawks
Many survivor pool contestants will overlook Seattle this week, as it is coming off its worst loss (34 points) since 2017 and its third loss of 34-plus points in 14 seasons under Pete Carroll. In addition, quarterback Geno Smith recorded his fourth straight game with two turnovers, and the Seahawks defense allowed season-highs in points (37), rush yards (298), and total yards (515) against the Ravens. However, the Seahawks have a golden opportunity to get right at home against Washington. The Commanders have turned in consecutive games with 400 or more total yards for the first time since 2020, and they are 4-2 record non-division games (0-3 vs. NFC East). However, the Commanders are overvalued as their four wins have come by 17 total points, and their offensive success is not sustainable, with quarterback Sam Howell constantly under duress. Howell is the second quarterback to be sacked 44-plus times through nine games of a season since 1970 (David Carr).
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/8)
- College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.