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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 11: Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The Dallas Cowboys kicked off Week 10 as the biggest favorites of the season (-17.5) and rewarded bettors who used them in survivor pools as they crushed the New York Giants 49-17. The final score does not show how out of hand the game got, as the Cowboys outgained the Giants by 468, the biggest differential between two teams since 1979.

Selecting the Cowboys would have prevented others from choosing the next two biggest favorites, as the Buffalo Bills (-405) and Cincinnati Bengals (-320) both lost and were likely the reason for many survivor pool casualties. In all, favorites went 8-6 SU in Week 10, and now we are looking at a week where five games have double-digit favorites, and four others have spreads of a field goal or less.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 11 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM ODDS
San Francisco 49ers -670
Miami Dolphins -650
Dallas Cowboys -620
Washington Commanders -500
Detroit Lions -480
Buffalo Bills -335
Jacksonville Jaguars -290
Houston Texans -200
Baltimore Ravens -194
Cleveland Browns -190
Los Angeles Chargers -164
Kansas City Chiefs -154
Denver Broncos -130
Seattle Seahawks -116

Safest Picks

San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions

It is likely not a coincidence that the San Francisco 49ers snapped a three-game losing streak once wide receiver Deebo Samuel was back on the field and looking healthy. When Samuel has been on the field, quarterback Brock Purdy, in his career, has completed 71% of his passes, posted a 12-1 TD-INT ratio, and has a Total QBR of 77. With Deebo off the field, Purdy’s numbers drop to a 65% completion percentage, a 16-8 TD-INT ratio, and a 68 Total QBR. Even San Francisco’s defense had an excellent turnaround last week, holding the Jacksonville Jaguars to 190 pass yards (their second-lowest of the season). In addition, the 49ers recorded five sacks and pressured Lawrence on 31% of dropbacks while holding the Jaguars to a season-low 59 rush yards. If they are playing great complimentary football, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be no match for them.

The Miami Dolphins are off a bye week and playing at home, where they have a +120 point differential this season. The Dolphins have won all four of their home games by at least two touchdowns, and the Las Vegas Raiders, with Aidan O’Connell under center, will not have the offense to keep up in this game.

This week is a perfect opportunity to use the Washington Commanders in survivor pools, as they are home against the injury-ravaged New York Giants. Granted, Washington has not beaten New York in three straight meetings (1-4 ATS in the previous five head-to-head matchups) and is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as favorites. However, Tommy Devito does not look capable of running an NFL offense, and the Giants have averaged just 11 points per game during a three-game losing streak. There are not many more opportunities to use Washington in survivor pools, nor are you likely to be excited to since it is 2-6 since starting the season with back-to-back wins. However, facing Devito provides a golden opportunity in a division game to use the Commanders, as four of their six games to end the season are against teams with winning records.

The Detroit Lions would be a safe play against the Chicago Bears if Justin Fields is again ruled out. Detroit’s 7-2 start is its best since 2014, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is cooking offensively, as he is the first Lion with 100-plus receiving yards in four consecutive games since Calvin Johnson in 2012. Meanwhile, Chicago was out-scored by a combined 37 points in its only two games against teams currently over .500 this season.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans

We could not have made every double-digit favorite a “safe play,” so we identified the Dallas Cowboys as the riskiest play of the bunch. The Carolina Panthers are coming off extended rest, having played on Thursday night, and we are nitpicking that the Cowboys are on the road as their 12-game home winning streak is their longest since 1979-81. In addition, Bank of America Stadium is a grass field, and Dallas is just 2-8 on grass compared to 17-1 (including playoffs) on turf since the start of last season.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is the first rookie with 350-plus passing yards in consecutive games since Cam Newton in 2011. He has led the Texans to five wins in seven games since an 0-2 start, and Houston is coming off its fourth game this season with 30 or more points after posting just one such game last year. However, the Arizona Cardinals are a much more dangerous team with Kyler Murray under center, and he instantly led the team to a win in his first start this season, which helped snap a six-game losing streak.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be an overlooked team this week, with many big favorites available. And while there were many embarrassing things about their 34-3 loss to the 49ers, like Trevor Lawrence turning in his second career game with zero touchdowns and three or more turnovers, the team also won five straight games before that lackluster performance. The Jaguars may be 1-3 in Jacksonville this season, but they face a Tennessee Titans team that has lost eight straight road games and is 0-5 on the road for the first time since 1994. In addition, Tennessee’s 3-5 start is its worst since 2015, and it has had six games this season with 16 points or fewer and four games with fewer than 300 total yards.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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