NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 12: Picks & Predictions (2023)
NFL survivor pool strategies come down mostly to when contestants use certain teams, and those that used the Washington Commanders in Week 1 when they were the second-biggest moneyline favorites against the Arizona Cardinals dodged a huge bullet last week. Most who had Washington available to use last week likely did so in their matchup with the New York Giants, and few would have predicted that Tommy DeVito would become the first Giants quarterback to throw for three touchdowns in a game since 2019 en route to a 31-19 victory. As such, the Commanders were the only one of the top 10 favorites (in terms of moneyline odds) to lose last week.
Those still alive in survivor pools have a wrinkle thrown their way, with four games kicking off before Sunday, including the three highly-anticipated Thanksgiving Day games.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 12 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Dallas Cowboys | -590 |
| Miami Dolphins | -480 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -450 |
| Detroit Lions | -370 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -295 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -200 |
| Tennessee Titans | -196 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -178 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -174 |
| New England Patriots | -166 |
| Denver Broncos | -136 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -134 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -116 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -116 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -112 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -108 |
Safest Picks
Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs
The three teams we have the most confidence in to use in survivor pools this week are all familiar names in the “safest picks†section, starting with the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is 17-1 (including playoffs) on turf since the start of last season, and faces a Commanders team that was just -6 in turnover differential against the Giants. The Cowboys are the first team to win six of their first 10 games by 20+ points since the New England Patriots in 2007. In addition, Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons is coming off his 11th career game with two-plus sacks. He is likely licking his chops to get after Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, the second quarterback since 1970 to be sacked 50 or more times through 11 games of a season (David Carr is the other). Washington is 2-7 after a 2-0 start and is 0-4 against the NFC East for the first time since 2019. Dallas is our safest play of the week, as the Commanders have allowed 30-plus points an NFL-high six times this season.
The Miami Dolphins would have been a “risky play†had the Jets decided to stick with Zach Wilson, but New York switching to Tim Boyle at quarterback for this game suggests it is punting the season in a sense. The Jets have averaged 8.0 points per game during a three-game losing streak and have an NFL-low nine offensive touchdowns this season. They will not have the offensive firepower to keep up with a Dolphins team that is 6-0 when Tua Tagovailoa throws for two or more touchdowns. In addition, the Jets secondary will have their hands full covering Tyreek Hill, whose 1,222 receiving yards are the most by a player through 10 games of a season in the Super Bowl era.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the unenviable task of playing a road game against a division rival on a short week after an emotion-filled game in a Super Bowl rematch against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. However, while Patrick Mahomes lost his last divisional game to the Denver Broncos, he has dominated AFC West teams in his career, going 29-4 SU (17-15-1 ATS) and winning 19 of 21 games against divisional opponents when favored by a touchdown or more. In addition, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to 16 wins in 17 road/neutral site games within the division, and we do not expect the Raiders to give them many problems, especially since they have scored 21 or fewer points in 10 of 11 games.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings
The San Francisco 49ers are tied with the Cowboys for the most wins by 10 or more points (seven) this season. Quarterback Brock Purdy is coming off the first perfect 158.3 quarterback rating in 49ers history since Joe Montana in 1989, and he has thrown for 629 yards and a 6-0 TD-INT ratio during a two-game winning streak. However, the Seattle Seahawks are just one game behind them in the standings and become a much more dangerous opponent if quarterback Geno Smith is not hampered by an elbow injury he suffered in the third quarter of last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, a loss they would not have had if Jason Myers did not miss a go-ahead 55-yard field goal with three seconds remaining.
The Minnesota Vikings nearly extended their winning streak to six games but allowed a late touchdown on the road against the Denver Broncos to lose 21-20 on Sunday Night Football last week. While Minnesota has masterfully navigated injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins, we want no part of opposing a Chicago Bears team that led a 7-2 Detroit Lions squad 26-14 with 4:15 left in the fourth quarter last week. Yes, the Bears have lost 12 consecutive divisional games and are 0-9 in NFC North games under head coach Matt Eberflus, but Justin Fields is back under center and is more dangerous than his 1-6 record as a starter this year indicates.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans are off to their worst start (3-7) since 2015 and have averaged 12 points per game during a three-game losing streak. The Titans have lost 14 of 17 games dating back to last season and just completed their seventh game this season with 16 or fewer points scored. However, we are still intrigued by them as a contrarian play against a Carolina Panthers team that is off to their worst start (1-9) since 2010 and who mustered only 12.0 points per game during a three-game losing streak of their own. Carolina has lost six games by double digits this season, and while Tennessee has lost nine straight road games and is 0-6 on the road (its 0-5 road start was the first such start since 1994), this game is at home, which makes the Titans an intriguing contrarian play with few elite teams left to choose from.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- NFL Thanksgiving Betting Primer & Expert Picks: (Week 12)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/22)
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/22)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.