Favorites went 10-3 SU last week, but two of those losses came from favorites ranked in the top four of steepest moneyline odds of the week.
Our Week 12 survivor pool picks once again hit on a contrarian play as the Miami Dolphins had no issues beating the New England Patriots at home, and we correctly identified the Washington Commanders as a team to avoid in our risky play section of the week.
Those who are still alive in survivor pools benefit from having all 32 teams available, with no teams on byes throughout Thanksgiving weekend.
#CircaSurvivor down to 54 live entries w/ 41 more eliminated w/ Commanders (co-top choice in #NFL Week 12 w/ 33 entries) losing 34-26 vs. Cowboys and Texans (8) losing 32-27 vs. Titans; 33 advanced w/ Dolphins @CircaSports @DerekJStevens @MikePalmCirca @JeffreyBenson12 @VSiNLive https://t.co/7uYOYggYQG
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) November 24, 2024
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 13
Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-720), Detroit Lions (-500), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-250)
The Chiefs have won 15 of their last 16 games overall and seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with the Raiders. Kansas City is the rightful biggest favorite of any team on the Week 13 slate, as it is off to its fourth 10-1 start in franchise history. It now faces a Raiders team that lost Gardner Minshew to a season-ending broken collarbone. Las Vegas is amid the longest active losing streak in the NFL (seven games) and is the third team in NFL history to trail by 10-plus points in each of the first 11 games of a season. Forget how many close games the Chiefs have been a part of, and use them in survivor pools this week if you have not done so already.
There are not many better feelings than advancing in your survivor pools after picking the winner of the Thursday game, especially a Thanksgiving Day game that kicks off at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Lions have scored 52 points in each of their last two home games and now face a Bears team that has lost their first two divisional games for the third straight season. While three of Chicago’s losses during its five-game losing streak have come on the game’s last play, things are not likely to be as close against a Lions team that has allowed six points or fewer in consecutive games for the first time since 1983.
The Buccaneers snapped a four-game losing streak with a tidy 30-7 road win over the Giants. Tampa Bay scored four touchdowns, kicked a field goal within its first six possessions last week, and completed its third game in franchise history with four rushing touchdowns. The Buccaneers should be too much for a Panthers team that is 3-8 or worse for the third straight season. I do not expect a Panthers offense led by Bryce Young, who is coming off just his second career game with 250 or more passing yards, to be able to keep up with Baker Mayfield, who ranks tied for third in passing touchdowns and tied for six in passing yards.
Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular
Washington Commanders (-255), Houston Texans (-230), Dallas Cowboys (-194)
The Commanders remain in our risky play section for a second consecutive week. Titans quarterback Will Levis became the first quarterback to win a game despite throwing a pick-six and taking eight or more sacks since Mark Brunell in 2001. He also got the monkey off his back with his first division win (1-5 in his career against AFC South opponents), and now draws a Commanders team that has lost three straight (by 17 total points) since a 7-2 start. Washington's special teams were a huge letdown last week, allowing two kickoff returns for touchdowns while Austin Seibert missed three kicks. And the Titans defense is good enough that scoring 21 or more points (they are 2-0 when they have done that) could be good enough to pull off a road upset.
The Texans have lost four of six games since a 5-1 start. Their offensive line continues to let them down, as they are a big reason why they are coming off a game where they committed 11 or more penalties for the fourth time (tied for the most in the NFL), while C.J. Stroud also threw two or more interceptions for the third time (the team is 0-3 in those games). Houston just lost to a two-win divisional opponent at home last week and is in jeopardy of doing so again against the Jaguars, who are at home and off a bye.
The Cowboys will get a lot of love in survivor pools when facing a Giants team that many believe has quit on head coach Brian Daboll and who is under direct orders from ownership to tank for the No. 1 draft pick. Not taking anything away from Dallas’ upset of Washington last week, but its 34 points were aided by two kickoff returns for touchdowns, and the team had 16 total points in Cooper Rush’s first two starts this season. The Giants are amid their longest losing streak (six games) since the 2021 season under Joe Judge, but maybe they play inspired against their division rival on national television on Thanksgiving Day this week.
Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool
Denver Broncos (-250)
Denver leads Miami by 1.5 games for the AFC's final wild-card spot after coming off its first road win against the Raiders since 2015 when the franchise played in Oakland. Denver swept the Raiders for the first time since 2014 and is now off to its best start (7-5) since 2016. Bo Nix has been on fire with 20 total touchdowns and just two interceptions over the last 10 games. And while Cleveland’s win over Pittsburgh last Thursday was impressive, doing it on the road and not against a divisional rival is a tougher task.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
