NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 14: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Though favorites went an uneventful 10-3 SU in Week 13, the three that lost (Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Pittsburgh Steelers) were among the top six favorites on the odds leaderboard last week. And now that we are entering a week where seven of the 15 games have a point spread of three or fewer points, things are about to get even tougher for survivor pool contestants who have successfully navigated the first 13 weeks.
We are getting into the time when many of the larger survivor pools require two picks of their contestants, so you may start seeing some unfamiliar names in this survivor pool advice column.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 14 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Miami Dolphins | -900 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -560 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -340 |
| Houston Texans | -300 |
| Green Bay Packers | -295 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -255 |
| New Orleans Saints | -240 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -174 |
| Detroit Lions | -162 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -156 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -154 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -138 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -136 |
| Cleveland Browns | -126 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -112 |
Safest Picks
Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans
The Miami Dolphins are off to their best start (9-3) since 2001 and have feasted on poor competition this year, going a collective 8-0 against teams currently under .500. Thus, a Tennessee Titans team that could be without an injured Derrick Henry and one that is 0-6 on the road this season should be no match for the explosive Dolphins. Tennessee’s problems have been growing for a while now, as it has lost eight or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2014 and 2015.
The San Francisco 49ers have put themselves in a class of their own in the NFC, at least when fully healthy, as they have now beaten the other two top contenders in the conference (the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys) by a combined 84-29. The 49ers are also just two weeks removed from a 31-13 road beat down of the Seattle Seahawks, and they have won their last four head-to-head matchups with their division rivals (covering the spread in all of them), and three of which have come by 18-plus points. Granted, Seattle did push Dallas to the brink last Thursday night, but San Francisco has eight wins by double-digits this season (most in the NFL), and Brock Purdy has an 11-1 TD-INT ratio during the team’s four-game winning streak, so we see no signs of him slowing down now.
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a bye week after beating the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. The Ravens trailed for just 13 minutes in that game after allowing a field goal in the first quarter, and that is significant since Baltimore entered that game trailing for the second-fewest amount of time of any team through its first 11 games since 1984. Baltimore’s running game ranks first in nearly every statistical category. While the Los Angeles Rams are amid their longest winning streak (three games) since winning Super Bowl LVI, we are not confident in them going over .500 on the road (they are currently 3-3 in six road games) against arguably the AFC’s top contender.
The Houston Texans impressively cooled down one of the hottest teams in the league last week, snapping the Denver Broncos’ five-game winning streak with a 22-17 home victory. Houston is now 5-0 when scoring 22 or more points this season, and C.J. Stroud is now the third quarterback with 3500-plus passing yards in their first 12 career games (Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck are the others). Meanwhile, the New York Jets hit a new low by scoring just 9.0 points per game during a five-game losing streak, and they have scored just two offensive touchdowns and committed 13 turnovers in that span.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Green Bay Packers are at a big scheduling disadvantage this week, playing a New York Giants team that is coming off a bye while the Packers played late on Sunday night. Green Bay entered last week’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs with the fifth-highest pressure rate (40.1%) in the league. And while it is playing its best football, having won three straight games and four of five, the Giants defense can keep them in this game, as they have nine combined takeaways in a two-game winning streak and are coming off consecutive games with three or more interceptions for the first time since 2015.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be a popular pick among survivor pool contestants that were not burned by them last week in a disappointing 24-10 loss to the previously 2-10 Arizona Cardinals. Before that, Arizona had lost nine consecutive road games, and Pittsburgh’s 10 points were the fewest scored on the Cardinals defense since 2021. While the New England Patriots are off to their worst start (2-10) since 1993, we are also not confident in a Steelers offense that has scored 16 or fewer points in three consecutive games, is now playing with a backup quarterback, and is coming off their fourth loss of 10 or more points this season.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are amid their longest losing streak (three games), but all those losses came against prospective NFC playoff teams. This is an opportunity for the Saints to get right against a Carolina Panthers squad that is 0-7 on the road this season and who is amid their second five-game losing streak of the season. Carolina is winless in its first seven road games for the first time since 2010, and Chris Tabor became the sixth consecutive Panthers head coach to lose his debut. New Orleans is also better than its 5-7 record suggests, as it has five one-possession losses this season.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 14 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Pick & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.