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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 15: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Favorites went 10-3 SU last week, but we correctly stayed away from two of those upsets (Rams over Bills and Seahawks over Cardinals) while also tipping that the Titans were a risky play to beat the Jaguars.

Those still alive in survivor pools entering Week 15 benefit from the full 16-game slate and the fact that many teams atop the moneyline odds leaderboards are not the most household names. Will anyone be daring enough to back the Panthers as small home favorites over the Cowboys?

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 15

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Baltimore Ravens (-1500), Washington Commanders (-340), Minnesota Vikings (-300)

Lamar Jackson is an absurd 23-2 SU against NFC opponents. And while one of those losses was to a Daniel Jones-led Giants team in 2022, the Ravens are not in jeopardy of losing to this version of a Giants team that seems content to lose games and be in position for next year’s No. 1 draft pick.

The Commanders are coming off a bye week to face a Saints squad that may not have Derek Carr under center as he suffered a hand fracture and a concussion last week. New Orleans’ quarterback situation without Carr is murky, as Spencer Rattler went 0-3 and completed less than 60% of his passes in relief of the injured Carr earlier this year. The team may turn to Jake Haener, who filled in last week against the Giants but did not attempt a pass.

The Vikings continue to keep pressure on the Lions in the NFC North, as they enter the week just one game back at 11-2. Minnesota is amid its longest winning streak (six games) since 2022, and Sam Darnold last week became the second Vikings quarterback with five-plus touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and 300 or more passing yards in a game. In the process, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison became the first pair of Vikings teammates with 125 or more receiving yards and two or more touchdown receptions in a single game. The Vikings should be no match for a Bears team that was outgained 319 to 4 in the first half in a blowout loss to the 49ers last week.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Cincinnati Bengals (-240), Atlanta Falcons (-235), Kansas City Chiefs (-220), New York Jets (-172)

Cincinnati is at a scheduling disadvantage, having played on the road on Monday night, and now plays its second consecutive road game against the Titans. Tennessee is eliminated from playoff contention after last week’s loss to Jacksonville and has scored 20 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games. But facing the Bengals defense could prove to be the best elixir for a struggling offense, and I want no part of backing Cincinnati on the road.

Las Vegas is amid its longest losing streak (nine games) since 2013-14. But Atlanta is amid a four-game losing streak of its own, and Kirk Cousins has a 0-8 TD-INT ratio in that span. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense has recorded just one takeaway over the last five games. We have seen players like Jerry Jeudy and Saquon Barkley explode for big games in "revenge games" against their former teams in recent weeks. Now it could be Desmond Ridder's turn, as he would look to improve to .500 as a starter (he is currently 8-9) if he faces his former Falcons teammates in the absence of Aidan O’Connell.

Kansas City has some breathing room after another walk-off field goal last week, having clinched the AFC West and own a two-game lead in the AFC for the No. 1 seed. Six of the Chiefs' wins have been decided on the last play, and three or fewer points have decided each of their last four. While Cleveland has lost 10 or more games for the 18th time in 26 seasons since returning to the NFL, it has the aggressive offense with Jameis Winston under center to cause the Chiefs defense some headaches. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes entered last week ranked 22nd or worse among all quarterbacks in completions, attempts, yards, and interceptions on passes of 20 or more yards downfield.

The Jets were another team eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Dolphins last week, which was their seventh loss by six or fewer points. Aaron Rodgers has now tied his career-high for losses in a season (10 in 2008). While Jacksonville snapped a five-game losing streak with a win last week, the 10 points were their fewest in a win since 2021. This game could come down to who is most motivated as neither team has much to play for, and that is something I want no part of this deep into a survivor pool contest.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Arizona Cardinals (-250)

Few people left in survivor pools will look Arizona’s way this week, as it is amid a three-game losing streak for the seventh straight season. The Cardinals now trail Seattle by two games in the NFC West, and Kyler Murray has a 3-5 TD-INT ratio during the three-game losing streak.

But this is a decent opportunity to use the Cardinals at home, as they are on the road for the next two wins and finish the regular season with a home game against the 49ers. The Patriots are off a bye week, but they scored two touchdowns on six red zone possessions in their last game and have already clinched consecutive seasons with 10-plus losses for the first time since 1989-93 (five straight).


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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