NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 15: Odds, Picks & Predictions
While the top five favorites from last week all lost, few survivor pool contestants had them available to use in Week 14. Thus, the most likely casualties in survivor pools were those that selected the Las Vegas Raiders, who blew a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead to the Los Angeles Rams. Those that chose the Dallas Cowboys or Kansas City Chiefs (-1600 and -430 ML odds, respectively), the top two favorites on the board, had to sweat out their victories last week. But at the end of the day, the Houston Texans are still the worst team in the league, and Patrick Mahomes continues to own the Denver Broncos.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 15 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (-900), Philadelphia Eagles (-405), Green Bay Packers (-350)
We are not going to waste much breath on why it is safe to use the Chiefs or Eagles in survivor pools this week. Kansas City plays a Houston team that is off to its worst start (1-11-1) since 2005 and has lost 11+ games for three consecutive seasons. Meanwhile, Chicago has lost nine of its last ten games, and quarterback Justin Fields is far from 100% after suffering a dislocated left shoulder in Week 11. The Eagles should still be highly motivated despite clinching their fifth playoff berth in the last six seasons, as they still have the NFC’s No. 1 seed to play for.
The 5-8 Packers have not made our “safest picks†section much this year, but we like them at home coming off a bye despite racing a Rams team off a big win. Los Angeles’ Baker Mayfield has only been with the organization for less than two weeks, and before his miraculous fourth quarter in his debut, he was 7-for-15 for 89 yards passing. We trust Green Bay will get things going off the bye and play inspired while not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Buffalo Bills (-360), Dallas Cowboys (-225), New Orleans Saints (-200), Minnesota Vikings (-198)
The snowy forecast for Sunday in Buffalo should favor the Bills over the Dolphins. But that weather can also complicate things and bring flukier things into play, like muffed punts and costly fumbles. Miami beat Buffalo once already this year, and with the Bills scheduled to play the Bears next week, one is much better off saving them for that game if they have yet to use them.
Dallas faces a red-hot Trevor Lawrence, who has a 10-0 TD-INT ratio over the last five games. Given that the Cowboys needed a final-minute touchdown to beat a one-win team at home last week, we want no part of using them against a Jaguars team that is on the rise.
The Saints and Falcons are both off byes this week, have lost back-to-back games, and are 1-3 in the division. While New Orleans’ lone division win was at Atlanta in Week 1, the Saints still entered the fourth quarter trailed 26-10 and are arguably not as explosive with Andy Dalton under center as when it had Jameis Winston as their quarterback in that game.
Ask any survivor pool contestant about their experience if they picked the Vikings this year, and they will likely tell you about their heart palpitations. Minnesota has allowed 400+ total yards in five consecutive games for the first time since 2012-13, and we cannot trust that leaky of a defense, even one that is facing the low-scoring Colts with Matt Ryan at quarterback.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Cleveland Browns (-172)
The Browns will be an interesting contrarian play if Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley does not clear concussion protocol in time for this week. Lamar Jackson is expected to miss at least another week, which means the quarterback duties would fall to Anthony Brown, whom the team trusted to throw just five passes (for a 3.2 YPA average) in relief of Huntley. Baltimore is 3-0 against the AFC North for the first time since 2016, but its ceiling would be much lower if Brown were to be under center.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.