NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 15: Picks & Predictions (2023)
With four weeks left in the regular season, it is truly an accomplishment if you are still alive in your survivor pools entering this week, especially after Monday Night Football’s two big upsets. For the second consecutive week, the top overall favorites lost, as the Miami Dolphins failed to beat the Tennessee Titans with -900 moneyline odds. Overall, favorites went 7-8 SU with four of the top six losing outright. Those who continued to fade the Carolina Panthers and followed our contrarian pick of the New Orleans Saints last week got out of Week 14 scot-free. However, plenty were burned by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who lost for the second straight week to a team that was at least eight games under .500, and the Houston Texans, who were thrown a twist by the New York Jets, who went back to Zach Wilson as their starting quarterback.
We are getting into the time when many of the larger survivor pools require two picks of their contestants, so you may start seeing some unfamiliar names in this survivor pool advice column.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 15 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| San Francisco 49ers | -1000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -460 |
| Miami Dolphins | -430 |
| New Orleans Saints | -250 |
| Detroit Lions | -225 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -196 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -196 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -190 |
| Green Bay Packers | -184 |
| Cleveland Browns | -178 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -168 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -164 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -154 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -142 |
| Tennessee Titans | -138 |
| Buffalo Bills | -134 |
Safest Picks
San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams
If you have the San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, or Kansas City Chiefs still available to use in survivor pools, they are all must-plays this week. Instead of using this space to explain why those teams should all win against teams that are a combined 11-28, we will focus on the Los Angeles Rams, who fought valiantly last week on the road in poor weather against a Baltimore Ravens team that may earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The 37-31 overtime loss snapped L.A.’s three-game winning streak, but it had a lead entering the fourth quarter, which marked the first time the Ravens have trailed all season after three quarters. Matthew Stafford is playing outstanding football with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio over the last three weeks, and his connection with Puka Nacua is incredible, as Nacua is the third player ever with 80-plus receptions through 13 games. While the Rams are just 2-6 in games outside the division (they have a 4-1 division record), we are not worried about their chances against a Washington Commanders team that has allowed 37.5 points per game during a four-game losing streak, and 30-plus in eight games, the most in the NFL.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning has thrown for 629 yards and has five total touchdowns with one interception during the team’s two-game winning streak. He also is the second quarterback since 1950 with a completion percentage of 70% or better and a passer rating of 95+ in each of their first three career starts. He has led the Bengals to 30-plus points in consecutive games this season, something Joe Burrow did not do when he was healthy. However, perhaps the Minnesota Vikings’ change from Joshua Dobbs to Nick Mullens at quarterback sparks a team that won despite scoring three points on offense, as they are coming off their second shutout in the last 30 seasons.
The Cleveland Browns are amid their longest home winning streak (four games) since 2019 and are off to their best home start (6-1) since 2007. In addition, while the Browns are the first team since the Texans in 2015 to have four different quarterbacks win a game, that inconsistency at the position should catch up to them sooner or later. The Chicago Bears are no pushover in this matchup, especially after holding the Detroit Lions to their fewest total yards (267) this season and fewest points (13) since Week 7. Chicago has momentum with a two-game winning streak for the first time since 2021, and while it is much better at home (3-3) than on the road (2-5), it is still capable of an upset.
The Atlanta Falcons will be a popular play as the next team to face the hapless Carolina Panthers. Atlanta is still a respectable 3-1 against NFC South teams after losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, and it has had some bad luck with five losses this season by eight or fewer points (all since Week 6). However, while Carolina is amid its second six-game losing streak this season and is 0-8 on the road for the second time in franchise history, two of its four home losses have been by one possession. In addition, Carolina had 20 first downs to Atlanta’s 13 and outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in the first meeting, and we expect the Panthers to play tough again if they can cut the three turnovers out that they committed in the first game.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints snapped a three-game losing streak with a convincing 28-6 win over the Carolina Panthers and are now in a three-way tie with the Buccaneers and Falcons atop the NFC North. The Saints improved to 4-0 this season when Derek Carr throws for two or more touchdowns, and now they face a New York Giants team that is coming off a short week and one who only has one win against a team with more than four wins all season. New Orleans snapped a seven-game ATS cover-less streak at home last week, and we look for it to build off that momentum this week, while we wait and see if Tommy DeVito and company can win a road game against someone better than the Washington Commanders.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- Champions League Matchday 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.