NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 16: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Want an idea of how rare it is to be alive in a survivor pool in Week 16? Dave Tuley explained on Twitter that just 14 entries are left from a Circa competition with a record prize pool of $6.133 million.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 16 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
San Francisco 49ers (-340), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-240)
We assume everyone alive in Week 16 used the Chiefs last week against the Texans (if not before that) and the Bills at some point, so we are focusing our attention further down the odds list. San Francisco leads the league in scoring defense and total defense. It now faces a Washington offense that allowed the Giants to pressure Taylor Heinicke on 44% of dropbacks, which suggests another long day could be in store for the Commanders offense. The 49ers have allowed 17 points or fewer in seven consecutive games, and Brock Purdy has managed the offense beautifully with a 6-1 TD-INT ratio over the last three games.
Tampa Bay may win the NFC South by default, but this week’s game at Arizona is an excellent opportunity to control their own destiny and not backdoor their way into a division title. The Cardinals have already been eliminated from playoff contention, are amid their longest losing streak (four) since 2019, and will possibly have Trace McSorley starting at quarterback once again. Arizona is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at State Farm Stadium, so this is an excellent “get right†opportunity for the Buccaneers.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Tennessee Titans (-320), Miami Dolphins (-270), Detroit Lions (-146)
The Titans once had a 93% chance to win the AFC South, but that has dropped to 54% after losing four straight games, its longest losing streak since 2015-16. Though Houston’s 1-12-1 start is its worst in franchise history, it has battled the last couple of weeks, narrowly pulling shocking upsets of the Cowboys and Chiefs. The Texans held Tennessee to 17 points in their first meeting despite Derrick Henry rushing for 219 yards. So would it be an absolute shock if Houston won in the rematch?
Miami is another risky play as a team amid a three-game losing streak, though those losses have come against three playoff teams at the moment (49ers, Chargers, Bills). However, Miami’s defense has allowed 29.3 ppg over the last three weeks and now faces a Green Bay offense that is the healthiest it has been all year with Romeo Doubs back from IR. The Green Bay passing attack should flourish in the warmer weather, even though the Packers defense will have its hands full slowing down Raheem Mostert and the speedy Dolphins receivers.
There are not many hotter teams in football than the Lions, who have won six of seven games following a 1-6 start. After that poor start, Detroit had a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. Now, those odds increase to 97% should it win out. Detroit has won at least seven games for the first time since 2017, and Jared Goff has a 9-0 TD-INT ratio in the last six. However, the Lions are just 3-5 in one-score games, and this line being under a field goal has us suspicious that Detroit could be in for a letdown game.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Los Angeles Chargers (-198)
The Colts are coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history, losing in overtime to Minnesota after holding a 33-0 lead in the fourth quarter. So how does Jeff Saturday pick his group up after that debacle? And for you fantasy pundits, the Colts allowed Vikings receivers K.J. Osborn and Justin Jefferson to finish second and third in fantasy points among wide receivers last week. Thus, how will they defend a high-powered Chargers offense that now has a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams?
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.