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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 16: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Favorites went 12-4 SU last week, but all of the top 10 moneyline favorites of the week won outright. We also correctly stayed away from a pick of the Panthers, who were a curious home favorite over the Cowboys after being underdogs for 33 straight games.

Those still alive in survivor pools entering Week 16 benefit from another full 16-game slate, but with three NFL games being played between Thursday and Saturday, they may have some decisions to make sooner than usual.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 16

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Buffalo Bills (-1000), Green Bay Packers (-900), Atlanta Falcons (-550), Cincinnati Bengals (-375)

The Bills play the Patriots twice in the final three games, but those that have Buffalo available for use in survivor pools should not wait to use it in the return game to New England, as the Bills may not have anything to play for in the final week of the season. Buffalo has won eight of its last nine games and became the fifth team to score 30-plus points in eight consecutive games in a single season. Don’t overthink this one.

The Packers had an ultra-efficient win in a tough environment in Seattle last week. They ran for 140 yards, Jordan Love had a 90 or better QBR for the second consecutive game, and Green Bay has won its last eight games against opponents not named the Detroit Lions. Yes, New Orleans was a two-point conversion away from upsetting Washington last week. But this game is at Lambeau Field, which is not ideal elements for a dome team this late in the season.

Atlanta is next up on the Giants’ hit list, as New York seemingly plays worse every week on its path to the potential No. 1 draft pick. The Giants have tied their longest losing streak in franchise history (nine games), and have now lost eight home games in a season for the first time since 1973-75. Atlanta is on a short week after having played on Monday night, but that should not matter against a team in as much disarray as New York.

Joe Burrow became the fifth player ever with three or more touchdown passes in six consecutive games in last week’s win over the Titans. All six of Cincinnati’s wins have come against teams under .500, which bodes well for its chances of success against division rivals Cleveland. The Browns have already lost their most games (11) since 2017 and have now committed three or more turnovers in four straight games for the first time since 2001.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Detroit Lions (-295), Indianapolis Colts (-210), Arizona Cardinals (-210) 

The Lions just suffered their second loss in franchise history when scoring 42 or more points in a 48-42 loss to the Bills. Detroit is decimated on defense after that game, as it lost three more starters to injury (DT Alim McNeill and cornerbacks Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis III), which now combine with the other 13 defensive players it already had on injured reserve. Bears offensive coordinator and now head coach Thomas Brown has shown he can get the best out of Caleb Williams in his limited time in the new role, and they should be able to take advantage of Detroit’s injured roster.

The Colts did several Colts-like things in last week’s loss at Denver, from allowing a pick-six on a trick play to Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball one yard before scoring a touchdown, leading to a turnover instead of seven points. Indianapolis is 2-5 in its last seven games, was out-scored 24-0, and committed four second-half turnovers last week. Tennessee is amid its third three-game losing streak of the season. However, it is still a dangerous divisional opponent, especially if Indianapolis is going to continue to make the same mistakes each week.

Carolina laid an egg in its first game as a favorite in 34 games, while Arizona snapped a three-game losing streak with a convincing 30-17 win over the Patriots. However, the Cardinals are just 3-6 against NFC opponents as opposed to 4-1 against the AFC, and the Panthers are still a team that had lost their last three games to projected playoff teams by a combined 12 points.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Jacksonville Jaguars/Las Vegas Raiders (-118/+100)

Those who are struggling to find teams to use in survivor pools in the last three weeks of the season have the option of holding their noses and backing who they feel would win this matchup between the Jaguars and Raiders.

The case for the Raiders is that the Jaguars have been consistently bad for a while now. They lost 11 or more games for the 10th time in the last 14 seasons, and Las Vegas is at home for a second consecutive week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville managed 27 first downs and 421 total yards of offense against the Jets last week. 

Correctly identifying the winner of this game (my money is on Las Vegas) would be a smart contrarian play that would give survivor pool contestants a huge edge over their competitors down the stretch.


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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