NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 16: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Favorites went 12-4 SU last week, and while each of the top six teams in terms of moneyline odds won outright, there were still likely some survivor pool casualties, as few contestants had those top six teams at their disposal. The four favorites to lose outright were the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, and Tennessee Titans, and things get even more difficult with just three weeks remaining in the regular season.
Even if you have been eliminated from your survivor pool, this advice can still be helpful to cash in on some moneyline parlays or to help identify which underdogs could pull upsets.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 16 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -770 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -550 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -480 |
| Denver Broncos | -295 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -240 |
| Green Bay Packers | -230 |
| Chicago Bears | -205 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -196 |
| Detroit Lions | -176 |
| New York Jets | -156 |
| Houston Texans | -142 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -138 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -136 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -124 |
| Miami Dolphins | -120 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -108 |
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers
The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs face opponents that are a combined 16-26. The Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo’s opponent, are coming off allowing the third-most points (63) by any team in the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, the Eagles have beaten the New York Giants 10 straight times at home, while the Chiefs have beaten the Las Vegas Raiders in 11 of their last 12 matchups. Since any survivor pool contestants are unlikely to have those three teams available, a three-way moneyline parlay on these favorites has -168 odds.
The Denver Broncos suffered a costly loss at the Detroit Lions last week, as they are now 11th in the AFC at 7-7. However, Denver is still 5-2 in its previous seven games and has beaten four teams currently .500 or better in that span. Thus, they should have little difficulty beating the three-win New England Patriots at home, a team whose 3-11 start is their worst since 1993 and who would set the record for most losses in a season under Bill Belichick. Denver needs to win out to have any realistic chance of earning a playoff spot, and it will get that necessary first victory this week.
The Green Bay Packers suffered their first loss at Lambeau Field in December (9-1) under head coach Matt LaFleur after allowing 450-plus total yards for the second time this season in a 34-20 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, Jordan Love continues to play well, with an 11-1 TD-INT ratio over the last five games. The Packers should have too much offense for a Carolina Panthers team that snapped a six-game losing streak despite not scoring an offensive touchdown last week. In addition, rookie quarterback Bryce Young continues to take too much punishment (he has been sacked 50-plus times this season), and with both of Carolina’s wins coming on walk-off field goals, it has still yet to run a play in the fourth quarter with a lead.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks
The Chicago Bears were a dropped Hail Mary away from knocking off the Cleveland Browns last week. Nevertheless, Chicago has clinched its third consecutive losing season, and Justin Fields dropped to 8-27 in his career as a starting quarterback. The Bears defense does have three or more takeaways in four straight games for the first time since 2018, and while the Arizona Cardinals have lost 11 or more games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2005-06, they have played better since Kyler Murray’s return. Arizona is 2-3 in those five games, and those three losses came to teams that would either be in the playoffs if they started today or to teams that lead or are tied for the lead in their divisions.
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a come-from-behind victory on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention with a 19-16 overtime loss to the Texans in which they blew a 13-0 second-quarter lead. However, seeing this spread under a field goal suggests the oddsmakers may know a letdown is coming for Seattle. The Seahawks are at a disadvantage off short rest and now have to make a cross-country flight to play in the 1:00 p.m. ET time zone. And perhaps the Titans will benefit from playing a game outside the division, as they are 0-4 against AFC South teams. However, another reason for optimism from Tennessee is that Seattle managed just 297 total yards against an Eagles defense that entered last week with the ninth-highest yards per attempt and fifth-highest passer rating allowed since Week 9. In addition, the Seahawks let the Eagles snap a six-game streak of being outgained (their longest streak since 2015) and a six-game streak of allowing at least two passing touchdowns.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
New York Jets
The New York Jets hit rock-bottom in a 30-0 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, as they managed just 103 total yards and 1.9 yards per play. However, the Washington Commanders are an excellent defense to get right against, as they have allowed 35.6 points per game during a five-game losing streak, which matches the longest losing streak under Ron Rivera. This would become a less confident contrarian play if quarterback Zach Wilson is ruled out this week after suffering a concussion against Miami, but we are also not as down on the Jets this week as most are considering losing on the road to division opponents is nothing new for them (they have lost 11 consecutive road games against AFC East teams). Meanwhile, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is tied for the most interceptions thrown, largely because his offensive line cannot protect him. Howell ranks third-worst in pressure-to-sack percentage and has taken by far the most sacks of any quarterback in the league, which is an issue when facing a Jets pass rush and secondary that entered last week allowing a league-low 9.9 passing points per game, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 16 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- Thursday Night Football Betting Primer & Expert Picks
- NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Pick & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.