Navigate

NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 17: Picks & Predictions (2023)

by |

The following is a tweet of last week's picks for the CircaSurvivor competition in Las Vegas with a grand prize of $9,267,000. Four entries remained heading into Christmas Day, as the Denver Broncos cost six of the final 10 contestants their survivor pool lives. All four remaining contestants advanced with the Philadelphia Eagles on Christmas, so it will be interesting to see if those that are left decided to split the grand prize four ways.

It is not likely that many survivor pools around the country are still going, but we hope these articles give you insight betting-wise on which teams would be wise to wager on or fade from a moneyline perspective.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 17 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM ODDS
San Francisco 49ers -900
Buffalo Bills -750
Philadelphia Eagles -650
Cleveland Browns -340
Kansas City Chiefs -330
Jacksonville Jaguars -290
Los Angeles Rams -275
Dallas Cowboys -270
Denver Broncos -245
Baltimore Ravens -186
Houston Texans -184
Seattle Seahawks -174
Chicago Bears -162
Indianapolis Colts -158
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -152
Minnesota Vikings -130

Safest Picks

San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns

Last week’s three-leg -168 moneyline parlay of the top three favorites (Bills/Eagles/Chiefs) blew up when the Chiefs lost on Monday to the Las Vegas Raiders, Patrick Mahomes’ first division loss in the last 19 games vs. AFC West opponents. This week, bettors can parlay the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles at -221 odds at FanDuel, as they face opponents that are a combined 11-34, and none have more than four wins on the season. 

The Cleveland Browns are 8-3 in their last 11 games and improved to 3-1 with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback with last week’s critical 36-22 win over the Houston Texans. The New York Jets have scored 30 points twice this season, which came within the previous three weeks. However, the latter was against a Commanders defense that has allowed 34.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak, and the Jets should come nowhere close to the 30-point plateau when facing a Browns defense that has held 11 opponents to fewer than 300 total yards (the franchise's most since 1957). And the last time Browns defensive end Myles Garrett played at home, his nine pass rush wins in Week 15 were the most of any player, and his 21 pass rush wins in Weeks 14-15 were his most in a two-week span in his career. The Browns rank first in pass defense, largely because they entered last week with three cornerbacks (Martin Emerson Jr., Denzel Ward, and Greg Newsome II), who all ranked in the top 12 of the league in passer rating allowed when targeted. This is a confident play for those that have the Browns available in survivor pools, as Cleveland's defense has been historic, with 195 first downs allowed through 14 games, the fewest since the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos 

The Jacksonville Jaguars still control their own destiny for the AFC South title despite being deadlocked with the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans at 8-7. However, though they face the Carolina Panthers, the league’s only two-win team, they also have the AFC’s longest active losing streak (four games) and second-longest active streak in the NFL. Now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a shoulder injury, on top of a concussion and ankle injuries he has suffered this month. Backup quarterback C.J. Beathard is capable of beating the Panthers, but we would not want to risk our survivor pool lives this late in the season to find out.

The Los Angeles Rams are the NFC’s version of the “team no one wants to play in the playoffs,” as they have won back-to-back games and have a point differential (+25) that is on par with two other NFC division leaders (the Eagles have a +26 point differential, and the Buccaneers have outscored opponents by 24 points this season). The Rams have won five of six games and averaged 29.8 points per game in that span, with Matthew Stafford posting a 15-2 TD-INT ratio. They now face a Giants team that has lost back-to-back games and is amid quarterback uncertainty after head coach Brian Daboll was forced to bench Tommy DeVito last week. New York is between two games against their hated division rival, the Eagles, and the Rams will be the much more motivated team as they look to nail down a playoff berth.

The Denver Broncos may have ended any chance they had at a playoff spot with last week’s disappointing loss to the New England Patriots, and this week’s opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, nearly pulled the biggest upset of the week last week with a 24-22 loss to the Bills. It is clear that the Chargers are playing harder for interim coach Giff Smith than they did for the fired Brandon Staley, and they surprisingly lost a game where they won the turnover battle 3-0 and possessed the ball for six more minutes. If the Chargers convert more of their drives into touchdowns instead of settling for five field goals, they can absolutely beat a Broncos team that may be deflated after last week’s loss.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears went over .500 at home (4-3) with a 27-16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals last week, a game in which they totaled 420 yards of offense. The Bears now face an Atlanta Falcons team whose playoff chances are hanging on by a thread, and the Falcons have not been a good team away from home this season (2-5). Chicago ran for 250 yards last week, and Atlanta has been vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks, as all five rushing touchdowns it allowed before last week were to the quarterback position. That is concerning when facing Justin Fields, who has 58 yards rushing or a touchdown in four of the previous five games.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App