NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 18: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
As a whole, favorites went 11-4 SU last week. The four favorites to lose were the Eagles (-320), Ravens (-166), Commanders (-142), and Jets (-134).
And now, the real fun begins. The last week of the NFL regular season is one of the most bizarre weeks in any sport. It takes a lot of research to know which teams have something left to play for and which coaches plan to rest players. However, the good news from a survivor pool perspective is that many mediocre teams are now in play. In addition, poor teams can become favorites over playoff-bound teams if their seeding is locked.
Even if your survivor pool days did not last long this year, hopefully, our readers are gaining an edge betting-wise, with money to be had on the money lines of each game.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Thank you for reading this column all year, and I look forward to providing even better advice for the 2023-24 season.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 18 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 18: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Safest Picks
San Francisco 49ers (-850), Philadelphia Eagles (-800), Buffalo Bills (-370), Seattle Seahawks (-295), Green Bay Packers (-200)
The 49ers, Eagles, and Seahawks are all on this list for the same reason. Each of these teams is still motivated to make the playoffs (Seahawks), play for the No. 1 seed (49ers and Eagles) or are still searching for a division title (Eagles) against opponents that have been eliminated from playoff contention or have made the playoffs but their seeding is set (Giants).
Elsewhere, Buffalo has won four of its last five meetings with New England, with three of those victories by at least nine points. While New England is in the playoffs with a win of its own, the Bills are the more talented team as long as they can get over the mental hurdle of playing after the Damar Hamlin injury.
The Packers are in “win and in†mode against the Lions after a four-game winning streak revitalized what were all-but-dead playoff chances following a 4-8 start. Green Bay is 18-1 SU in December and January under head coach Matt LaFleur, and Aaron Rodgers is 53-31 ATS against NFC North opponents in his career and is 15-8 ATS in divisional games over the last three seasons. In addition, he is 18-7 SU against Detroit, winning ten of the 12 matchups at Lambeau Field, and will not throw away a chance of getting his team to the playoffs.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Kansas City Chiefs (-430), Cincinnati Bengals (-310), Jacksonville Jaguars (-275)
Kansas City has looked last than dominant over the previous month, as three of its wins amid a four-game winning streak (at Denver, at Houston, vs. Denver) came by six or fewer points. Jarrett Stidham may have breathed life into Las Vegas, as his 365-yard and three-touchdown performance against the league’s best defense (49ers) makes the Raiders a dangerous opponent with nothing to lose in the regular season finale.
Cincinnati has much more offensive firepower than the Ravens, who have averaged just 11.8 points per game over the last five games. However, these teams have split their last 16 meetings, and Baltimore has won six of the previous eight. Though it is a home game for the Bengals, they should not be this big of favorites in a divisional game against a playoff-bound opponent.
Tennessee announced it was starting Joshua Dobbs in a “winner takes the AFC South title†game. That alone has bettors racing to the windows to back the Jaguars, who were four games back of the Titans after the first ten games. However, Derrick Henry returns to the backfield after sitting out last week. He has averaged 141.6 yards per game in the previous seven games against Jacksonville, with 13 rushing touchdowns and four multi-touchdown games against them in that span. Thus, do not judge Dobbs by his 20-for-39 for 232-yard performance against the Cowboys, as he now has a more dangerous array of weapons to work with.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Indianapolis Colts (-154)
The Colts have done nothing to inspire confidence lately, as their six-game losing streak is the franchise’s longest since 2017. In addition, Indianapolis has won just one game since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach, and it is 0-4 in games not started by Matt Ryan. Thus, if one thought the Texans could win this finale, we would not put it past anyone to end their survivor pool season by doing the unthinkable and picking the worst team in the league. However, Houston clinches the No. 1 draft pick with a loss, which is enough for us to believe Indianapolis will end its six-game losing streak heading into the offseason.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.