NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 18: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)

Favorites seem to be coasting down the stretch of the regular season, going 14-2 SU last week. However, one of those two upsets was quite a shocker, as the Giants surrendered their stranglehold on the top pick in next year’s draft and joined a group of teams at three wins after upsetting the Colts last week.

And now, the real fun begins. The last week of the NFL regular season is one of the most bizarre weeks in any sport. It takes a lot of research to know which teams have something left to play for and which coaches plan to rest players. However, the good news from a survivor pool perspective is that many mediocre teams are now in play. In addition, poor teams can become favorites over playoff-bound teams if their seeding is locked.

Even if your survivor pool days did not last long this year, hopefully, our readers are gaining an edge betting-wise, with money to be had on the money lines of each game.

With this being the last week of the regular season, and survivor pools, our categories will only be broken down into safest picks and risky plays, as there are no longer needs to think in terms of contrarian plays.

Thank you for reading this column all year, and I look forward to providing even better advice for the 2025-26 season.

NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 18

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Baltimore Ravens (-2000), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-950), Atlanta Falcons (-450)

The Ravens would clinch the AFC North title, and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs, with a win over Cleveland. The Browns are amid their second five-game losing streak this season. They also have 13-plus losses for the first time since they went winless in 2017. Cleveland has now gone four straight games with 14 or fewer points for the first time since 2016, and that will not cut it against an explosive Ravens offense led by darkhorse MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.

Tampa Bay also controls its own destiny for an NFC South title, just needing a win against New Orleans this week. The Saints have looked lifeless with Spencer Rattler under center, and are now 0-6 in games without Derek Carr as their starter this season. New Orleans’ 11 losses are the most since 2005 under Jim Haslett.

Atlanta needs a win and a Buccaneers loss to win the NFC South. That is unfortunately its only path to the playoffs, as it cannot clinch a wild card. The Falcons face a Panthers team that has lost 12 or more games for the first time in franchise history. They are also the first team to allow 200-plus rushing yards in five straight games since the 1981 Patriots. Bijan Robinson should be in for a huge day as a result.


Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Denver Broncos (-500), Green Bay Packers (-390), Los Angeles Chargers (-250), Tennessee Titans (-210)

The Broncos are massive 10-point home favorites against the 15-1 Chiefs, which suggests that Kansas City is content to rest its starters despite already earning a bye week with the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I would not put it past Andy Reid changing his mind and at least letting his starters play a quarter or a half. And I want no part of backing a Broncos team that could be feeling the pressure of missing out on the playoffs, when all they needed was one win in its previous two games to have already clinched a playoff spot.

Green Bay is already in the playoffs, and is merely playing for seeding, as it could either finish as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. If Green Bay and Washington have the same result this week, the Packers would be the seventh seed. I suppose that should be motivation enough to win to potentially avoid having to go to Philadelphia in the first round, but Green Bay could also take the cautious approach knowing their playoff positioning is safe.

Los Angeles is in almost the exact same position as Green Bay, as a win could potentially vault it from the No. 6 seed to the No. 5 seed. But for that to happen, it would also need Pittsburgh to lose at home to Cincinnati. The Chargers will know their fate entering their game, as Pittsburgh plays on Saturday night. I would only back L.A. if the Steelers lose, which would then give the Chargers motivation to play up for the No. 5 seed.

Only in Week 18 would a team as bad as the Titans be favored over the Texans. Tennessee will be a popular play despite losing 13 games (its most losses since 2015) and being amid its longest losing streak (five games) since the 2022 season. However, even if the Texans rest everyone of importance on both sides of the ball, there is no guarantee the Titans win, as they are also in the running for the top pick in next year’s draft.


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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