Navigate

NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 18: Picks & Predictions (2024)

by |

As a whole, favorites went 12-4 SU last week. The four favorites to lose were the Eagles (-650), Seahawks (-174), Buccaneers (-152), and Vikings (-130), though Philadelphia’s surprising loss to Arizona likely did affect many people in survivor pools.

And now, the real fun begins. The last week of the NFL regular season is one of the most bizarre weeks in any sport. It takes a lot of research to know which teams have something left to play for and which coaches plan to rest players. However, the good news from a survivor pool perspective is that many mediocre teams are now in play. In addition, poor teams can become favorites over playoff-bound teams if their seeding is locked. That is certainly the case in the Steelers-Ravens game, as Pittsburgh is a four-point road favorite over the AFC No. 1 seed amid speculation that Baltimore will rest many of its key players.

Even if your survivor pool days did not last long this year, hopefully, our readers are gaining an edge betting-wise, with money to be had on the money lines of each game.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 18 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM ODDS
Dallas Cowboys -900
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -245
Philadelphia Eagles -245
Detroit Lions -235
Jacksonville Jaguars -230
Cincinnati Bengals -210
Pittsburgh Steelers -186
New Orleans Saints -180
San Francisco 49ers -180
Green Bay Packers -172
Buffalo Bills -164
Seattle Seahawks -158
Las Vegas Raiders -142
New England Patriots -138
Los Angeles Chargers -130
Indianapolis Colts -110

Safest Picks

Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the same boat this week, needing wins against inferior opponents to clinch their respective divisions and home playoff games in the wild card round. Dallas should have no issue beating a Washington Commanders squad that they blew out 45-10 at home on Thanksgiving. Granted, the Cowboys have had issues on the road, going just 3-5 this season. However, they have the third-best point differential (+166) of any team in the league and will be motivated to win and lock down the No. 2 seed, which would mean a minimum of two home games in the NFC playoffs, provided they win their first game. They face a Washington team amid its longest losing streak (seven games) since 2018-19 and one that has allowed 27-plus points in all seven of those games.

Additionally, Tampa Bay is the only NFC South team that is at least .500 on the road this season (4-4), and though it trailed in the third quarter of its first meeting with the Carolina Panthers, the Panthers hit rock bottom last week losing to the Jaguars 26-0 and were shut out for the first time since 2002.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers 

The Jacksonville Jaguars still control their own destiny for the AFC South title despite being deadlocked with the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans at 9-7. However, they have only won once in December and face a Tennessee Titans team with nothing to lose and one that will be motivated to hurt their rival’s playoff chances. There is also the storyline that it could be both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry’s last game with Tennessee, and head coach Mike Vrabel would like nothing more than to send them out with a victory. Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS in its last nine road games, and Tennessee is 0-8 SU in its last eight divisional games. However, this game is still worth avoiding, especially if Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence does not suit up for a second straight week.

The Cincinnati Bengals are eliminated from playoff contention but are still five-point home favorites over the Cleveland Browns, who have nothing to play for as they are locked into the No. 5 seed. However, the Browns have won four straight games and could be hungry to keep that winning streak entering the playoffs, while the Bengals are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against divisional opponents. Cincinnati is one of two AFC teams that is winless in division games, and it could also rest players like Ja’Marr Chase, who is clearly not 100%, to avoid serious injury.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have five scenarios in which they could make the playoffs, two of which require a win and a loss by either the Bills or the Jaguars. Baltimore is locked into the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but it was in the same position in 2019 and rested many of its key players in the final week, only to come out flat and lose 28-12 to the Titans in the Divisional Round. It is anyone’s guess if head coach John Harbaugh will learn from that mistake and play Week 18 with a little more urgency, but there is some school of thought that the Ravens would not mind losing to the Steelers if it meant helping to keep the Bills out of the playoff. Either way, there is too much unknown to have your survivor pool life resting in the hands of Mason Rudolph and the Steelers.

The Green Bay Packers are in a win-and-in scenario in Week 18 against the Chicago Bears, the same situation they were in last year when they lost 20-16 at home to the Detroit Lions in what was Aaron Rodgers’ final game with the team. Will the memories of that loss weigh on them this week? Either way, the Chicago Bears are playing better football, having won back-to-back games and four of the last five. And Chicago has one last opportunity to let Justin Fields loose and see if it wants to commit to him being its long-term quarterback or looking elsewhere with the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Trends will say the Packers have won nine consecutive games against the Bears, but eight of those came with Aaron Rodgers under center, and this Bears team looks a lot different than the one that lost 38-20 at home in Week 1 to Green Bay.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

New England Patriots

Those still alive in survivor pools may not have any of the aforementioned teams available this week, so this might be a wise time to use the New England Patriots as a contrarian play. Despite New England having the AFC’s worst record and losing 12 games for the first time under Bill Belichick, it has won two of its last four and been much more competitive of late. Five of New England’s previous six losses have been by one possession, and Belichick owns the Jets, as New England has won 15 consecutive games against its division rival. Predicting who the more motivated team will be with each eliminated from playoff contention is difficult. Still, the Jets coaching staff has been assured they will all have jobs next year, while Belichick should be plenty motivated to win in what could be his last game ever as the Patriots’ coach.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App