NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 2: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Things got dicey for survivor pool contestants in Week 1, as popular plays like the Ravens only had a one-point halftime lead over the Texans, and the Commanders need a strong 10-0 fourth quarter to erase a six-point deficit against the Cardinals. Those who picked the Seahawks and Chiefs should have followed last week’s advice that those were risky plays. Meanwhile, the Vikings finally lost a one-possession game (they were 11-0 in one-possession games last year) and let down many survivor pool contestants after losing to the Buccaneers. Still, those who followed the point spread movement on the game were cautioned after Minnesota dropped from -6 to -4 before kickoff.
In all, favorites went 8-8 SU (though four of the top seven favorites lost), which meant there were plenty of survivor pool landmines and big money to be made on moneyline underdog backers.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 2 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -430 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -375 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -350 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -320 |
| Detroit Lions | -235 |
| New York Giants | -190 |
| Denver Broncos | -188 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -174 |
| New Orleans Saints | -174 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -172 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -172 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -154 |
| Miami Dolphins | -136 |
| Cleveland Browns | -132 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -126 |
| Green Bay Packers | -124 |
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills (-430), Dallas Cowboys (-375), San Francisco 49ers (-350)
The Bills had a golden opportunity to cash in on a divisional road after Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers was ruled out for the game with an injury after just the fourth snap. Oddsmakers were so assured of Buffalo winning at that point that it instantly rose to -8.5 point favorites at many sportsbooks. However, Josh Allen reverted back to the turnover-prone player he was for much of the first two years of his career, throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble, and Buffalo squandered a 13-3 halftime lead. The good news for the Bills is that we have seen this script play out before when facing the Jets, as Allen now has a 4-5 TD-INT ratio in his last four starts against them and completed fewer than 60% of his passes in three of those. The Raiders do not boast an elite defense like New York, as they ranked 31st in QBR allowed, 26th in points per game allowed, 32nd in takeaways, 30th in sacks, and 30th in Efficiency. In addition, we put little stock in Las Vegas’ Week 1 win over Denver, as it is 3-0 in its last three games against the Broncos and 4-11 against the rest of the league since the start of last season.
The Steelers were one of the trendiest underdog picks last week at home against the 49ers, but San Francisco erased any doubt early after scoring on its first four possessions (two touchdowns and two field goals). Brock Purdy may be the 49ers’ long-term answer at quarterback after all, as he is now 8-1 as a starter (including playoffs) and is the first quarterback ever with two-plus touchdown passes and a win in each of his first six regular season starts. Purdy is also the first quarterback since Patrick Mahomes to win his first six regular season starts. And while it is a popular survivor mantra never to pick a division game where the favorite is on the road, San Francisco often turns its road games against Los Angeles into home games with how well they travel. The 49ers will not be caught off guard by the Rams’ wide receiver tandem of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 16 catches and 238 yards last week. San Francisco is 13-1 in its previous 14 games and has covered the spread in each of its last seven games against the Rams.
Many will be skeptical about using the Cowboys this week after seeing what the Jets defense did to Josh Allen in Week 1. However, New York is still trotting out Zach Wilson at quarterback, while Dallas is coming off the largest shutout victory (40-0 over the Giants) in franchise history. Dallas pressured Daniel Jones on 23 of 42 dropbacks (16 of 37 with a four-man rush), and the Cowboys may be one of the few teams in the NFL that will post better defensive numbers than the Jets by year’s end. And for all of Dak Prescott’s struggles with interceptions last year (his 3.8% interception rate was the fourth-highest of any quarterback in the previous five seasons), he still led them to the fourth-highest points per game average and the seventh-highest Efficiency rating last season.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Philadelphia Eagles (-320), Detroit Lions (-235), New York Giants (-190)
Philadelphia is coming off a tough and physical game against New England, with only three days of rest and this game being played on Thursday night. The Eagles pounded the Vikings 24-7 at home in Week 2 last year, and Minnesota mustered just 82 total yards and seven first downs after halftime last week against Tampa Bay. However, this is a risky play because the Eagles allowed 200 yards after the catch to Patriots wide receivers, the second-most since 2019 and the most since facing a Tom Brady-led Buccaneers team in 2021. Thus, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could have big days in the passing game, and Minnesota was a team that won its division after all last season.
The Lions are riding high after last week’s upset of the defending Super Bowl champions. Detroit also has the added benefit of three extra day’s rest, having last played on Thursday night, and it plays a Seahawks team that was held to just 12 total yards and one first down in the second half last week. However, Pete Carroll’s team made the playoffs a year ago and beat the Lions 48-45 on the road in Week 4 while putting 51 points on Detroit in 2021. The Lions defense figures to be much improved this season, but I cannot risk my survivor pool life on a team that has allowed 99 points to the same opponent the last two seasons.
New York would have assuredly been one of our “safest picks†this week if it was even somewhat competitive against Dallas last week. But a 40-0 defeat, which was its largest shutout home loss in franchise history, certainly gives us pause this week, especially with the team having to make a cross-country flight to Arizona. The Cardinals were projected by many to have the worst record in the league and to be the frontrunner in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes if he enters this year’s NFL Draft. Still, Arizona had a six-point lead on the road against Washington despite Joshua Dobbs filling in for Kyler Murray as starting quarterback. The Giants will be a popular pick this week since it suddenly looks like going 0-6 against the NFC East this year is plausible. We need to see consistency out of Daniel Jones in year two under head coach Brian Daboll before we back him to win a road game in this setting.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Denver Broncos (-188)
No lead is safe with Denver, as last week’s loss to the Raiders was its eighth straight when leading at halftime. After surrendering a 13-10 halftime lead, the best thing for the Broncos is to get away from playing the AFC West, as they are 1-10 in their last 11 division games. Denver mustered just three points on three drives in the second half of last week’s loss, but the Commanders did not exactly light the world on fire with their offense, as they totaled just 248 yards against the Cardinals. Denver benefits from playing consecutive home games, and we trust that a Broncos team that ranked third in Run Block Win Rate (74%) last season can at least find success on the ground (it ran for 4.3 yards per carry last week) to lift them past a Commanders team that entered the season ranked 27th in points per game, 29th in yards per play, 30th in Total QBR, and 29th in yards per drop back under head coach Ron Rivera since 2020.
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