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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 3: Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Week 2 was a rollercoaster week in the NFL, not just for survivor pool purposes but also for betting. Four teams overcame double-digit deficits to steal wins, including the Washington Commanders rallying from 18 points down and surviving a Hail Mary to beat the Denver Broncos.

Thankfully, last week’s three “safest” survivor pool picks won convincingly by a combined 55 points, while one of our “risky plays,” the Detroit Lions, fell in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks. Our other two risky plays survived by a combined nine points, including the New York Giants, who tied a franchise record with their largest comeback win (21 points) and their first such win since 1949.

In all, favorites went 10-6 SU and are now 18-14 on the season, which means there were plenty of survivor pool landmines and big money to be made on moneyline underdog backers these last two weeks.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 3 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs -770
Dallas Cowboys -720
San Francisco 49ers -560
Jacksonville Jaguars -405
Baltimore Ravens -375
Miami Dolphins -295
Buffalo Bills -280
Seattle Seahawks -255
Philadelphia Eagles -230
Cleveland Browns -174
Detroit Lions -158
New England Patriots -148
Green Bay Packers -130
Cincinnati Bengals -126
Minnesota Vikings -110
Las Vegas Raiders -108

Safest Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-770), Dallas Cowboys (-720), San Francisco 49ers (-560), Jacksonville Jaguars (-405)

The Chiefs defense got a massive jolt with Chris Jones on the field after ending his holdout in Week 2. Kansas City has had 31 plays with Jones on the field and allowed 3.5 yards per play, generated three sacks, and allowed a Total QBR of 11. Conversely, Kansas City has had 103 plays without Jones, allowing 5.2 yards per play, causing two sacks, and allowing a 41 Total QBR. The Bears offense should also be unable to keep up with a Chiefs team that will continue to improve with a healthy Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes brings along young receivers.

The Cowboys have allowed 10 points through the first two games, the fewest points allowed by a team with 10-plus sacks and five or more interceptions through a season’s first two games since 1963. Dallas leads the NFL in scoring, QBR, and turnover differential. And its offense has been able to sustain and grind out drives, as the Cowboys lead the NFL with seven drives of at least 10 plays. They will not take lightly a Cardinals team that had fourth-quarter leads over two of their NFC East rivals.

The Giants had been out-scored 60-0 through a game and a half and were held scoreless in their first six quarters of a season for the first time since 1934. Thus, while their comeback from 20-0 down at halftime and 28-7 in the third quarter against Arizona cooled off criticism for a week, bigger problems from that loss surfaced. New York will be without Saquon Barkley, who is dealing with an ankle injury. That is not good news for quarterback Daniel Jones, who played 34 games with Barkley entering this season and had a 44-17 TD-INT ratio while averaging 230 passing yards per game. In 19 games without Barkley, Jones has a 16-17 TD-INT ratio and has averaged 198 passing yards per game. Furthermore, with Barkley healthy and active over the last five seasons
entering this year, the Giants had a +40.1 Offensive EPA, averaged 5.4 yards per play, and 4.7 yards per rush. Without Barkley, those numbers plummet to a -126.9 Offensive EPA, 5.0 yards per play, and 4.2 yards per rush. This is an excellent opportunity to use San Francisco and enjoy a stress-free weekend after advancing your survivor pick on Thursday night.

Jacksonville went 5-0 in Weeks 14-18 last season to clinch the AFC South title and its first winning season in five years. And from Weeks 9-18, Trevor Lawrence was second in the NFL in completion percentage (70%) and TD-INT ratio (15-2), with the Jaguars winning seven of the nine games. Thus, there is no reason to be down on them after a 17-9 home loss to the Chiefs, and they should prove to be too much for a Texans team that is coming off their eighth straight home loss (franchise record) and ninth double-digit loss since the start of last season (the most in the NFL). In addition, Houston has lost 10 consecutive games when underdogs of more than seven points.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-375), Miami Dolphins (-295), Buffalo Bills (-280)

Baltimore is riding high as the only 2-0 team in the AFC North. And while it is also 4-0 ATS in its last four games, its preparation for the Colts this week will be compromised by the unknown status of quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson is in concussion protocol this week after leaving last week’s game in the second quarter. However, his unique running ability compared to backup quarterback Gardner Minshew’s more prototypical drop-back style will make it challenging to scheme for. The Ravens are not necessarily in danger of losing to a Colts team that is 1-8 SU in their last nine games dating back to last season, but they would not be one of our top choices with so many other excellent selections out there.

Miami’s -6.5 spread against Denver is fishy, given the matchup of a 2-0 versus an 0-2 team. However, Denver could easily be 2-0 if not for blowing halftime leads in back-to-back games. The Broncos have lost nine straight games in which they led at half, an NFL record. We have too much respect for Broncos head coach Sean Payton in this matchup, and even though this is a situation where a West Coast team is coming east and playing in the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot, the Broncos have been much more competitive than their winless record suggests.

Which Josh Allen will show up for the Buffalo Bills this week? In Allen’s only road start, albeit against a much more talented Jets defense, he tied a career-high with four turnovers. Entering last week, Allen had the most turnovers (84), second-most interceptions (63), and most fumbles (54) since 2018. While he rebounded well with three touchdowns and zero turnovers last week, the Commanders still showed resilience in coming back from 18 points down in a hostile Denver environment, and we would feel a lot more comfortable if this game was in Buffalo instead of being a road game.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Seattle Seahawks (-255)

As evidenced by his performance on Monday night, it will take time for Panthers rookie Bryce Young to have full command of the offense and adjust to the speed of the NFL. He now heads into one of the most hostile road environments, playing in front of the 12th man in Seattle, and leads a Carolina team that is just 2-11 in its last 13 road games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense has plenty of momentum after scoring 30 points in the second half and overtime of last week’s road win at Detroit. In addition, quarterback Geno Smith is coming off his 11th game with a 100+ QB rating since the start of last season (the most in the NFL).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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