NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 5: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Week 4 was the first week of the NFL season where the biggest favorite on the board (the San Francisco 49ers) did not fall victim to an upset. However, that does not mean that there were not plenty of upsets from the Week 4 slate, as a popular survivor pick, the New York Jets, lost to the Denver Broncos as -360 moneyline favorites. Bettors should also be wary of big underdogs from a point spread perspective going forward, as underdogs of at least 5.5 points this season are 16-2-3 ATS this year.
Week 5 also marks not only the first week of byes, but the beginning of the London Series of games, which will put an added spin on survivor picks going forward.
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Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 5
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 5 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| San Francisco 49ers | -390 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -295 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -215 |
| Chicago Bears | -198 |
| Green Bay Packers | -186 |
| Washington Commanders | -172 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -148 |
| Denver Broncos | -148 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -146 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -146 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -136 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -126 |
| Houston Texans | -120 |
| New England Patriots | -116 |
Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks
San Francisco 49ers (-390), Chicago Bears (-198)
San Francisco is home for a second straight week after taking care of business and snapping a two-game losing streak with last week’s tidy 30-13 win over the Patriots. Yes, the 49ers are 2-0 against AFC teams and 0-2 against NFC teams this year, but Arizona is now just 5-16 under head coach Jonathan Gannon. In addition, its 216 rushing yards allowed and 449 total yards allowed to Washington last week does not inspire confidence that the Cardinals will slow down a Kyle Shanahan-coached offense. Arizona also has the dubious distinction of being the victim of Washington’s most points in a game (42) since 2016, and its biggest win (28 points) since 2015.
Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton faces a former team for the second straight week as he leads his team into a road matchup against the Chicago Bears. There is no doubt Dalton has injected life into the Carolina offense, as the team is 1-1 and has average 30.0 points per game with Dalton under center, and went 0-2 while averaging 6.5 points per game with Bryce Young at quarterback. However, Chicago is amid its longest home winning streak (seven games) since 2005-06 and has held all four opponents to 21 points or fewer this season. In addition, the Bears should build off the momentum of D’Andre Swift’s breakout game, as he had 165 scrimmage yards and a touchdown last week after totaling 114 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns through the first three games.
Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular
Seattle Seahawks (-295), Kansas City Chiefs (-215), Green Bay Packers (-186)
Seattle is a much more talented team than the New York Giants, and its raucous home atmosphere should be too much for New York to handle. This pick in survivor pools would come with a lot more confidence if Malik Nabers cannot suit up after sustaining a concussion last week. However, if Nabers is active, this is a stayaway game considering the fact that New York is off extended rest having played last Thursday, while Seattle was on the road on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
The Chiefs are 4-0 for the sixth time in 12 seasons under head coach Andy Reid, but all four wins have come by seven or fewer points. Meanwhile, New Orleans is still a team that started 2-0 after Derek Carr totaled six touchdowns and one interception in that span, and it should be 3-1 instead of 2-2, but it lost to Atlanta last week despite the Falcons scoring zero offensive touchdowns. There will be better spots to use Kansas City later in the year, but I want a full game of seeing how its offense plays in the absence of its best wide receiver, Rashee Rice.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love threw a career-high four touchdown passes last week, but also tied a career-high with three interceptions, and looked rusty in his first game back from a knee injury. Green Bay was getting its doors blown off 28-0 in the second quarter before mounting a late comeback, but it has still lost its first two games against NFC opponents for the first time since 2014. I am weary of this road game against a Rams team that overcame injuries to beat the 49ers at home two weeks ago.
Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool
Washington Commanders (-172)
One likely did not expect to be using Washington as a viable survivor pool team this year, but with the way Jayden Daniels has burst onto the scene, the Commanders can be used with much more confidence.
Washington is off to its best start (3-1) since 2011, and Daniels has the best completion percentage in NFL history (82.1%) through four games of a season (min. 40 attempts). This offense is also so difficult to defend because of Daniels’ running ability, as his 218 rushing yards are the second-most by a quarterback thru four career games, and his four rushing touchdowns are tied for the most by a quarterback in that span as well. Washington is off its first game with 200-plus rushing yards and three or more rushing touchdowns since 2019, and with a red-hot offense averaging 33.7 points per game during a three-game winning streak, the Commanders are a great contrarian pick at home against a Browns team that has scored 18 points or fewer in each of their first four games of a season for the first time since 2003.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.