NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 5: Picks & Predictions (2023)
It never ceases to amaze me how much survivor pools can change from week to week. In Week 3, three teams with point spreads of -8 or higher all lost, knocking out droves of survivor pool contestants early. However, as eventful as Week 3 was, Week 4 was anything but, as the top seven favorites were all victorious. That does not mean that Week 4 was without drama, as the Philadelphia Eagles needed overtime to beat the Washington Commanders, and last week’s contrarian pick, the Denver Broncos, overcame a 21-point third-quarter deficit to beat the Chicago Bears. But wins are wins, and anyone who went with a chalky selection with a team high up on the odds boards likely lived to fight another week.
Starting this week, several teams will be on byes (four this week), which makes fewer teams to choose from and could alter survivor pool plans slightly.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 5 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Miami Dolphins | -520 |
| Detroit Lions | -420 |
| Washington Commanders | -335 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -235 |
| Buffalo Bills | -230 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -230 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -205 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -178 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -166 |
| Green Bay Packers | -130 |
| Denver Broncos | -126 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -120 |
| New England Patriots | -118 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -110 |
Safest Picks
Miami Dolphins (-520), Detroit Lions (-420)
The Miami Dolphins were the last remaining unbeaten team in the AFC before last week’s 48-20 loss at Buffalo. So far, Miami’s only two somewhat poor performances have come against division rivals (the Dolphins beat New England 24-17). The Bills held the Dolphins to a season-low in points, passing yards (251), Offensive Efficiency, and Offensive EPA. However, Buffalo confused Tua Tagovailoa and pressured him on a season-high 27% of dropbacks. Still, the New York Giants’ pass rush is not nearly as effective as Buffalo’s, and they do not have the offense to keep up with the Dolphins. Tagovailoa is the second Dolphins quarterback with 1,200-plus passing yards through four games (Dan Marino is the other). Meanwhile, New York mustered just three points and 248 total yards on Monday night against Seattle, and even if offensive lineman Andrew Thomas and running back Saquon Barkley return this week, there is too much of a talent gap between it and Miami to overcome.
The Detroit Lions took early control of the NFC North race with a dominant 34-20 win at Lambeau Field over the Green Bay Packers. With that game being played on Thursday night, the Lions have extra time to prepare for a Carolina Panthers squad that is now 0-4 for the first time since 2010. Panthers rookie Bryce Young is the second Panthers quarterback ever to lose his first three starts (Jimmy Clausen is the other), and he is not being helped out by a run defense that has allowed 130 or more rushing yards in every game this season. That should make Panthers backers skeptical when facing David Montgomery, who just torched the Packers for 121 yards and three touchdowns and became the first Lions player to rush for 100-plus yards and score three touchdowns since James Stewart in 2000.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Kansas City Chiefs (-235), Baltimore Ravens (-230)
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a hard-fought Sunday night victory against the New York Jets, which was likely harder than it had to be given Patrick Mahomes’ two turnovers. The Chiefs allowed Zach Wilson to play his best game this season, as he completed 72% of his passes and had a 2-0 TD-INT ratio after completing 48% of his passes with a 1-3 TD-INT ratio in his first two starts. Kansas City’s leaky secondary is concerning when facing Kirk Cousins, whose 11 touchdown passes through four games are the most by a Vikings quarterback since Daunte Culpepper in 2004.
The Ravens will likely be a popular pick after shredding what was the NFL’s best defense, the Cleveland Browns, for 28 points in a 28-3 victory. And it appears Baltimore will play its second consecutive game against a backup quarterback, as Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions in place of the injured Deshaun Watson last week, and Kenny Pickett left last week’s game with a leg injury for Pittsburgh. However, Mitch Trubisky is a proven veteran and more than capable of leading an upset, and this rivalry has also had tight contests, with seven of the previous eight being decided by five or fewer points.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Washington Commanders (-335)
If you did not use the Washington Commanders in Week 1 against what we thought was a miserable Arizona Cardinals team at the time, then this would be an excellent time to use them if you wanted to save Miami and Detroit, who each look like bonafide playoff contenders. The Bears are in disarray, having lost 14 consecutive games dating back to last season. They are 0-4 for the first time since 2000 and are coming off matching their biggest blown lead in franchise history, as they led Denver by 21 pts in the third quarter. Chicago’s defense has been abysmal throughout the losing streak, allowing 25 or more points in 14 consecutive games, the longest such streak in NFL history. While Washington has allowed 35.5 points per game during a two-game losing streak, it held Chicago to seven points in a Week 6 victory last season, and the Bears are the perfect opponent to use as a rebound coming off a devastating overtime loss to the Eagles.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 6 Rush-Rate Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section - including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes - or head to more advanced strategy - like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor - to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.