NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 6: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
After a one week reprieve where the biggest favorite of the week did not fall victim to an upset, we got right back to that trend in Week 5. After the San Francisco 49ers lost to the Arizona Cardinals, that meant the top favorites of the week have lost outright in four of the five weeks of the season. The second-biggest favorite was also not immune from an upset last week, as the New York Giants overcame injuries to Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers to beat the Seattle Seahawks on the road.
Because of all the crazy upsets at the top of the odds leaderboards, our contrarian picks have actually worked out much better than our safest picks, and those that used the Washington Commanders or Chicago Bears last week as we advised are still alive in their survivor pools.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 6
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 6 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -450 |
| Houston Texans | -330 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -295 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -290 |
| Green Bay Packers | -240 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -180 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -172 |
| Detroit Lions | -168 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -158 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -152 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -146 |
| Buffalo Bills | -142 |
| Chicago Bears | -130 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -116 |
Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Philadelphia Eagles (-450), Baltimore Ravens (-295), Atlanta Falcons (-290)
The Philadelphia Eagles have the benefit of a bye week and are facing a Cleveland Browns team in complete disarray. The Browns are off to their worst start (1-4) since 2017 and have averaged 14.7 ppg during a three-game losing streak. The Browns scored zero touchdowns on their first 11 possessions last week against the Commanders, went 1-for-13 on third down, and Deshaun Watson was sacked seven times. In fact, Watson has been stacked 18 times and has lost three fumbles in the last three games, so this play is clearly more of a fade of the Browns than it is in support of the Eagles.
Many may be surprised that I have not put the Baltimore Ravens in by “riskier plays†category, given that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has the most rushing yards (300) by a quarterback through 5 career games, and is the third rookie quarterback since 1950 to start and win four of his team's first five games in a season. However, despite Washington already matching its season win total from last year, the Ravens are figuring things out after an 0-2 start. Baltimore is the first team since the 2006 Falcons with 1,000 rush yards through five games of a season, and is also the first team in NFL history to outrush each of its first five opponents by 100-plus yards. Thus, I expect Baltimore’s physicality to win out in this game.
The Atlanta Falcons have played with fire this season, as they are the first team in NFL history with three wins within the first five games of a season after trailing in the final minute of the fourth quarter. However, it is hard to argue with what the Falcons did offensively last week, finishing with three players with over 85 receiving yards, and Kirk Cousins throwing for 371 passing yards between the numbers (the third-most in a single game since 2006). Atlanta had extra rest having played last Thursday to prepare for a Carolina Panthers team that is 3-19 since the start of last season. In addition, Carolina is coming off its fourth double-digit loss of the season (most in the NFL), and has allowed its most points through five games in franchise history (165).
Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular
Houston Texans (-330), Cincinnati Bengals (-172)
The Houston Texans are coming off an impressive home win over the Buffalo Bills in which they harassed Josh Allen into a 30% completion percentage, the lowest of his career. However, Houston is a risky play on the road against the New England Patriots this week, as its three wins by four or fewer points are the most in the NFL, and the team may be without its best receiver after Nico Collins did not return last week from a hamstring injury.
The Cincinnati Bengals will need to get over the mental hurdle of blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead to the rival Ravens last week. Cincinnati may be better off going on the road for this matchup as it is 0-3 at home, and it is not far off from being a good team, as all four losses this season are by six points or fewer (four losses by total 15 pts). But I am not about to oppose a Giants team that scored an impressive road win without its two best skill position players. The Giants are also coming off in season-highs in points (29), total yards (420) and rushing yards (175).
Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool
Pittsburgh Steelers (-152)
The Steelers may be thinking about a change at quarterback this week, especially since opponents are now 23-0 SU in the last 23 games when scoring 20-plus points in games Justin Fields starts (the Cowboys beat the Steelers 20-17 last week). However, the “turmoil†if there is any in Pittsburgh pales in comparison to what is going on in Las Vegas. Davante Adams has demanded a trade, and Gardner Minshew was benched last week in favor of Aidan O’Connell. Denver’s 34 points last week against Las Vegas were its most since 2021, and the Raiders were non-competitive in their first loss to Denver since moving to Las Vegas (they are now 8-1). I believe in Mike Tomlin much more than I do Antonio Pierce in what may seem like times of crisis for both teams, and the Steelers are a solid contrarian play, especially since one is not likely to ever select them in survivor pools in a divisional game this year.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.