NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 6: Picks & Predictions (2022)
Week 5 once again saw two of the five biggest favorites lose outright, as the Green Bay Packers (-430) and Jacksonville Jaguars (-330) lost to the New York Giants and Houston Texans respectively. The Jaguars in particular knocked a ton of contestants out of the Circa Sports survivor pool, as evidenced by their breakdown of picks.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 6 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Picks
Los Angeles Rams (-500), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-375)
The Los Angeles Rams look nothing like the team that won the Super Bowl last year, as their 2-3 start is their worst since 2015. The Rams’ offensive line issues are real and are a big reason the team has produced eight touchdowns to 12 turnovers. However, they are not the dumpster fire that the Carolina Panthers are, especially after firing head coach Matt Rhule after five weeks. The Panthers’ 1-4 start is their worst since 2016, and they have lost 11 of their last 12 (nine of their last ten at home). If Los Angeles has not yet burned you in survivor pools, this should be the safest week of all remaining weeks to use them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers benefitted from a questionable (at best) roughing the passer call on Tom Brady to milk the rest of the clock in their 21-15 win last week over the Atlanta Falcons. Now the Buccaneers hit the road to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has still not won a game in which TJ Watt has not played. Pittsburgh is coming off its worst loss (35 points) since 1989 under Chuck Noll and has averaged just 13.5 PPG during a four-game losing streak (its longest since 2016). The Steelers will not have enough offense in rookie Kenny Pickett’s first home start to beat Brady and the Buccaneers.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Green Bay Packers (-355), Baltimore Ravens (-230)
How could one use the Green Bay Packers in survivor pools after what they saw from them last week in London? The Packers were outscored 17-2 in the second half by the Giants, and Aaron Rodgers was 7-of-15 for 72 passing yards over the final 30 minutes. He has had a QBR below 20 in the second half of four games this season. Add to it that they have to adjust to the travel back from London and are facing a Jets team off to their best start (3-2) since 2017, which means Green Bay is a team that should be stayed far away from in survivor pools this week.
The Baltimore Ravens benefit from facing a New York Giants team returning from their London game a week ago. However, New York is off to its best start (4-1) since 2009 and just completed the first 14-point comeback win since Daniel Jones became the starting quarterback. The Giants held Green Bay to two points and 101 yards in the second half. Head coach Brian Daboll has something special going with this Giants squad, and they are capable of navigating the demanding schedule and upsetting the Ravens this week.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
San Francisco 49ers (-230)
The San Francisco 49ers are six-point road favorites and about to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is the only remaining unbeaten ATS team in the league. While Atlanta’s three losses have come by 11 points, we still feel confident that the 49ers are a solid contrarian play, considering how rock-solid their defense has been. San Francisco has held four consecutive opponents to 15 or fewer points and just outrushed Carolina 153-64. The 49ers’ ability to dominate in the trenches bodes well for success against a Falcons offense heavily predicated on a solid running game.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.