NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 6: Picks & Predictions (2023)
Favorites in Week 5 were barely above .500, going 8-6 SU, which means there was plenty of money to be made by underdog moneyline backers. From a survivor pool perspective, we nailed our two safest picks from last week and even tipped a risky play (the Baltimore Ravens) that ended up losing outright. In all, three of the top six favorites (Commanders -335, Bills -230, Ravens -230) all lost, which likely shrunk many survivor pool fields.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 6 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -1000 |
| Miami Dolphins | -900 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -550 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -300 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -300 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -210 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -196 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -178 |
| Detroit Lions | -166 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -162 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -154 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -152 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -138 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -126 |
| New Orleans Saints | -124 |
Safest Picks
Buffalo Bills (-1000), Miami Dolphins (-900), Kansas City Chiefs (-550)
It is somewhat surprising to see the Bills as the biggest favorites on the Week 6 slate, given how banged up they are defensively and that they are playing in their first game after a London trip. However, even though Buffalo will be without linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, and possibly numerous other starters in the secondary, the Giants have their own injury issues to worry about. New York is optimistic Daniel Jones will play after suffering a neck injury in the fourth quarter last week. However, Saquon Barkley is still nursing a high ankle sprain, and it may be again without its best offensive lineman (Andrew Thomas). The Giants are not built offensively to take advantage of Buffalo’s injuries, as they have more sacks allowed (27) than points scored (24) and managed just one touchdown on their 46 offensive possessions.
Miami is in the conversation as the best team in the AFC, as it is one of two teams in the conference with four wins. The Dolphins have made history through five games, as they have totaled an NFL-record 2,568 yards of offense through the first five games of the season. Miami has taken care of business against poor teams in its last two victories, out-scoring the Broncos and Giants (who are a combined 2-8) by 65 points, and should be no match for a Panthers squad that is the only remaining winless team in the NFL and is off to their first 0-5 start since 2010.
Three of Kansas City’s four wins during its winning streak may have come by one possession, but Patrick Mahomes has owned Denver in his career. Mahomes is a perfect 11-0 against the Broncos, and Kansas City’s Week 17 victory over Denver last year was its 15th straight, which tied the third-longest streak in NFL history of one team beating a single opponent. Meanwhile, Denver squandered a 13-8 lead against the New York Jets last week and has now lost an NFL record 10 straight games when leading at halftime (0-3 this season). NFL Network correspondent James Palmer reported that a tear-down within the Broncos organization could be coming before the trade deadline, which is not an ideal situation when going on the road to face the defending Super Bowl champions.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Philadelphia Eagles (-300), San Francisco 49ers (-210), Jacksonville Jaguars (-196)
The Eagles are off to their fourth 5-0 start (and second straight) in franchise history, but even they would admit their five wins have not been pretty. Despite being undefeated, three NFC teams have a better point differential than them, and they now play their second straight road game against a Jets team that went toe-to-toe with Kansas City at home two weeks ago, with Zach Wilson outplaying Patrick Mahomes. New York snapped a three-game losing streak with a win at Denver last week and could have scored much more than 31 points if not for scoring zero touchdowns on five red-zone possessions.
We are also touting the other undefeated team, the San Francisco 49ers, as one of our risky picks this week, despite Brock Purdy becoming the fourth quarterback since 1950 to win his first 10 starts. This would be a more confident play if Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson were again ruled out with a shoulder injury. However, the team had a week off to rest and heal, and the Browns still have a defense that ranked No. 1 in Defensive Efficiency (per ESPN Analytics) and allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game (163.7) through three games in the Super Bowl Era.
After spending the previous two weeks in London, Jacksonville faces Indianapolis and its backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew. However, one could argue that Minshew gives the Colts a better chance to win at the moment than rookie Anthony Richardson, and we are avoiding the “revenge factor†as Minshew made 20 starts in the first two years of his career for the Jaguars. Plus, teams that do not take a bye week the week after returning from London have seen their team total cash in eight of the last 10 instances, including the Atlanta Falcons last week.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Los Angeles Rams (-300)
The Cardinals have been sneaky competitive through the first five games, beating Dallas and losing games they should have won against the Commanders and Giants. However, Washington and New York have played poorly since, so the real Arizona may look more like the team that allowed Ja’Marr Chase to record a franchise-record 15 catches and for Joe Burrow to total three touchdowns when he had just two through the first four weeks. Arizona is off to its worst start (1-4) since 2018 and has lost 11 of its last 12 games, so we are comfortable backing the Rams as a contrarian play, as they are 11-2 ATS in their previous 13 games against the Cardinals.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.