NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 7: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
In what feels like the first time all season, no matter who you used in survivor pools last week, you made it out unscathed.
Favorites based on the odds at the time of last week’s article’s publish went a combined 14-0 SU, but two teams that kicked off as favorites ended up losing outright. Comically, two of our three safest picks won by a touchdown or less, while the two risky plays won by an average of 15 points. But the best value came from our contrarian play, as the Pittsburgh Steelers romped the Las Vegas Raiders 32-13 and provided survivor pool contestants with the flexibility of using better teams going forward.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 7
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 7 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -450 |
| Washington Commanders | -375 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -260 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -250 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -225 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -194 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -186 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -172 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -154 |
| Green Bay Packers | -152 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -152 |
| Denver Broncos | -134 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -132 |
| New York Jets | -120 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -118 |
Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Buffalo Bills (-450), Washington Commanders (-375)
The Buffalo Bills endured one of the toughest parts of their schedule to this point, playing three consecutive road games against the Ravens. Texans, and Jets. It will be “home sweet home†for Buffalo this week who faces a Tennessee Titans team that is off to their worst start (1-4) since 2015. Tennessee’s only win was against Miami who threw Tyler Huntley under center a week after signing him. Last week, it committed 11 penalties (most since 2021) for 113 yards (most since 2022), and if it cannot even win at home (0-3 at home for the first time since 2015), it should not expect to win at Buffalo.
The Washington Commanders should not be discouraged by their 30-23 road loss at the Ravens. Though they had a four-game winning streak snapped, they still scored their most points in a four-game span (137) since 1999. Washington also was out-rushed 176 to 52, but it had 100-plus rushing yards in each of the first five games of the season and 200 or more in each of the previous two. However, Baltimore is the first team in NFL history to outrush each of its first six opponents by 100 or more yards, and is the first team since the 1971 Raiders with 150-plus rush yards and a rushing touchdown in each of the first six games of a season. Thus, Washington backers should be able to easily flush last week’s lost, and the Commanders should be too much for a Panthers team that is 3-20 since the start of last season. In addition, Carolina has lost five games by double digits this year, and its 203 points allowed through six games are its most in franchise history.
Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular
Jacksonville Jaguars (-250), Cincinnati Bengals (-225), Indianapolis Colts (-186)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a big scheduling advantage in this London matchup having played overseas last week, so they do not have to get used to the time difference. However, Jacksonville may also have a lame duck head coach at this point in Doug Pederson after its third 1-5 start in the last five seasons, so it is fair to question its motivation level as well. The Patriots lost by 20 points to the Texans last week, but it will be good to get away from Foxborough, as they are amid their longest home losing streak (eight games) since 1989-91. New England's offense showed life under Drake Maye, as his three touchdown passes were more than Jacoby Brissett produced in the first five games combined. And while the Patriots have averaged just 13.4 points per game during a five-game losing streak, it should not take much offense to beat a Jaguars team that has scored 17 or fewer points four times this season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed seven points in their Sunday night win over the Giants, but considering New York was without its two best skill position players in Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary, I am not ready to declare their defense fixed. Cleveland is off to its worst start (1-5) since 2017 and was the first team since the 2014 Jaguars to score fewer than 20 points in each of the first six games of a season. Still, this is a division game with the favorite being on the road, and while the Browns are 0-4 against NFC East opponents this year, perhaps the familiarity with an AFC South opponent will spark a struggling team.
Because of all the injuries the Indianapolis Colts were dealing with last week to Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman Jr., they went from road favorites to road underdogs against the Titans last week. However, perhaps Joe Flacco at quarterback is an upgrade at the position, as he has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio this season, while Anthony Richardson has four total touchdowns and six interceptions this year. However, Indianapolis has been playing with fire with three wins by 11 total points, and the Miami Dolphins are off a bye, which they likely used to develop and help progress the offense under the still raw Tyler Huntley.
Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool
Los Angeles Rams (-260)
The Los Angeles Rams still play home to the Dolphins and are at the Patriots before Thanksgiving, so there will be plenty of survivor pool contestants that are going to wait to use them in either of those games (as long as Tua Tagovailoa remains out), giving them a chance to get healthier. However, this is still a great opportunity to use the Rams, as the Las Vegas Raiders have four losses by double digits. The Raiders are coming off a three-turnover performance last week, and they fell to 0-3 this year when they have committed two or more turnovers. Los Angeles has three losses by six or fewer points, and it is a couple of breaks away from a .500 record or better instead of its worst start (1-4) since 2014.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.