NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 7: Picks & Predictions (2023)
If you followed our survivor pool advice from last week, you would have avoided the two landmines that were the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. We pegged both teams as “riskier plays that will be popular,†and both were upset on the road, leaving us with no more undefeated teams entering Week 7. In all, favorites went 11-4 SU last week, with the top four favorites winning their matchups.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 7 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| Buffalo Bills | -400 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -400 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -300 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -230 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -164 |
| New Orleans Saints | -162 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -162 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -156 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -146 |
| Washington Commanders | -134 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -132 |
| Cleveland Browns | -124 |
| Green Bay Packers | -118 |
Safest Picks
Seattle Seahawks (-400), Buffalo Bills (-400)
Seattle had its three-game winning streak snapped by the Cincinnati Bengals, who are now 3-0 against the NFC West and 0-3 against AFC teams. The Bengals forced Geno Smith into his first game with zero touchdowns and two or more interceptions since 2014. However, we should not be down on the Seahawks entering this week, as the Bengals are a dominant team at home, winning nine of their previous 10 home contests (including playoffs). Seattle would have had a much better chance to pull the road upset last week if it scored more than one touchdown on its five red zone possessions. Either way, we do not expect an Arizona Cardinals team that has allowed 31.7 ppg during a three-game losing streak to pull an upset in Seattle, especially since the Cardinals have lost six straight road games and are 0-3 on the road for the first time since 2011.
If this were not such a difficult survivor week, we would have made the Bills a risky play, considering they narrowly escaped with a 14-9 victory at home last week over arguably the worst team in the NFL (the Giants). However, the slim pickings of overwhelming favorites make the Bills a team worthwhile to select, merely out of necessity. New England’s 1-5 start is its worst since 1995 under Bill Parcells. The Patriots have gone five straight games with 17 or fewer points for the first time under Bill Belichick, and their third-quarter touchdown was their first in 40 drives. Even with Buffalo’s offensive struggles against New York, New England has averaged just 6.7 points per game during a three-game losing streak, and it does not have the offensive firepower to take advantage of Buffalo’s defensive injuries.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
San Francisco 49ers (-300), Las Vegas Raiders (-164)
The 49ers had a 15-game regular season win streak snapped last week by the Browns, as they produced season lows in points (17), rush yards (108), and pass yards (107). While many will want to blame the weather and a constantly wet football as reasons quarterback Brock Purdy struggled so much, San Francisco also likely was not as productive on offense due to the in-game injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Picking San Francisco to beat a Justin Jefferson-less Vikings that scored zero offensive points in six possessions in the second half against the Bears last week would be a much safer pick if the team were to get positive injury news regarding its best running back and wide receiver.
The Raiders will be a popular play against the Bears, given the lack of quality teams to choose from in survivor pools this week, especially after coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season. Head coach Josh McDaniels improved to 3-0 against Bill Belichick last week, but wins against the Patriots and Belichick are no longer as impressive as they once used to be, given how the team has played recently. The Bears just held the Vikings scoreless on offense in the second half last week (Minnesota scored a defensive touchdown). Granted, Chicago has lost 10 consecutive games at home and is 0-3 at Soldier Field for the first time since 2014. However, Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did leave last week’s game in the second quarter with a back injury, and we would want no part of backing the Raiders if Brian Hoyer is under center this week, even if Justin Fields is also banged up or ruled out for the Bears.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-146)
The Buccaneers lost their second game this season by 14+ points, were held without a touchdown, and converted just two of 12 third-down opportunities against Detroit. However, a loss to the Lions is not something to be ashamed of, as they have four straight wins by 14+ pts for the first time since 1969-70. Tampa Bay is in an excellent rebound spot against an Atlanta team that just had a five-game home winning streak snapped. The Falcons are 1-9 in their last 10 road games, and the usually turnover-averse Desmond Ridder threw three second-half interceptions last week. Atlanta is 1-5 in its previous six games against Tampa Bay, making the Buccaneers an interesting contrarian play entering a tough mid-season survivor pool slate.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.