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NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 8: Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Underdogs had a winning week in Week 7, going 7-6 SU. And with two of the top three favorites (Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers) and four of the top six favorites falling, that likely meant plenty of survivor pool casualties across the country. If you followed last week’s advice, you would have advanced in your survivor pools if you had the Seattle Seahawks available, as they were our only real confident pick, with the Bills being a quasi-risky play. We accurately tabbed the 49ers and Raiders as teams to stay away from, and we are excited heading into Week 8, as all 32 teams are in action, which should give us plenty of quality survivor pool options.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 8 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

NFL Survivor Pool Advice

TEAM ODDS
Miami Dolphins -460
Buffalo Bills -450
Los Angeles Chargers -450
Baltimore Ravens -420
Kansas City Chiefs -390
Detroit Lions -390
Philadelphia Eagles -295
Dallas Cowboys -275
San Francisco 49ers -235
New York Jets -154
Jacksonville Jaguars -152
Houston Texans -148
Seattle Seahawks -148
Atlanta Falcons -130
Indianapolis Colts -124
Green Bay Packers -112

Safest Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (-450), Baltimore Ravens (-420), Kansas City Chiefs (-390)

Los Angeles is coming off a 14-point loss to the Chiefs, its first loss by more than three points all season. The Chargers face the Bears and rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent, who became the first undrafted rookie quarterback from Division II to start a game since 1950. Bagent went 21-of-29 for 162 yards and one touchdown to no interceptions, becoming the first Bears quarterback to win his first NFL start since Craig Krenzel in 2004. While the win snapped Chicago’s franchise-record 10-game home losing streak, Bagent will find life much more difficult in his first NFL road start. We should not overvalue Chicago after beating a Brian Hoyer-led Raiders team, as Hoyer has now lost 13 straight starts, with his last win coming in 2016.

Baltimore did not look fatigued in Week 7, coming off a trip to London the week prior. The Ravens scored touchdowns on their first four drives against the Lions and have allowed nine or fewer points three times this season. Lamar Jackson is coming off his 17th career game with three-plus touchdown passes (ties Joe Flacco’s franchise record), and the Ravens defense has held six of seven opponents to one or fewer touchdowns. Thus, the Ravens should be no match for a Cardinals team that has lost four straight games, all by double-digits, and has averaged 13.8 points per game during the losing streak.

Kansas City made the Chargers its latest AFC West victim (a 31-17 home win last week), as the Chiefs became the first team to win 13 straight divisional games since the Colts from 2012-15. Kansas City has allowed 14 points per game during a six-game winning streak and is the only team to hold every opponent this season to 21 pts or fewer. The Chiefs have beaten Denver 16 consecutive times, including a 19-8 win on Thursday night in Week 6, and the 16-game streak is the longest active winning streak by one division opponent over another. Thus, even though this game moves to Mile High, we cannot envision a way the Broncos end that streak this week, especially with the Chiefs defense playing so well.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Miami Dolphins (-460), Buffalo Bills (-450), Philadelphia Eagles (-295)

The Dolphins entered Week 7 against the Eagles with 223 total points in their first six games, the fifth-most in the Super Bowl era. However, Philadelphia’s defense made Miami’s offense look pedestrian, holding it to -8 rushing yards in the first quarter, the fewest in any quarter since 2013. In addition, Miami scored a season-low 10 points and gained a season-low 113 yards in the first half, and its -7 yards rushing were the fewest in the first half of a game in the NFL since 2009. Though the Dolphins beat New England 24-17 on the road in Week 2, the Patriots still held them to 389 total yards and gained more first downs (23 to 22). With the Patriots coming off an upset of the Bills, we want no part of opposing a Bill Belichick-led team that he has seen up close already this season.

The Bills have not looked right for three consecutive weeks, dating back to their loss to the Jaguars in London. Buffalo’s 4-3 start is its worst since 2018, and it is now 1-3 in one-possession games. Josh Allen was blitzed (42%) and pressured (40%) at season-high rates against New England, and the Bills defense let them down as well, becoming the first team that the Patriots have scored 21-plus points against. The Bills are also a fade on Thursday night despite winning their previous five TNF contests, as Josh Allen is 7-8-1 ATS on short rest.

The Eagles devised an outstanding game plan to limit Miami’s historic offense, as their 62% Pass Rush Win Rate in Week 7 was the second-highest by any opponent against Miami in the last two seasons. It is fair to expect a letdown off a nationally televised home game against arguably the AFC’s best team, and they now face a Commanders team who beat them in Week 10 in Philadelphia last year. In addition, two of the Eagles’ previous three wins against Washington have been by four or fewer points. Thus, while the Eagles have won eight straight road games against NFC opponents, we are wary of this divisional road game, even if the Commanders did punt the ball the most times (10) in a single game since 2020 last week.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

New York Jets (-154)

This is not a true road game for the Jets, who play in the same stadium as the Giants, so Gang Green should have plenty of its fans in the building. The good news about the Giants’ 14-7 win over the Commanders was that they held consecutive opponents to 14 or fewer points for the first time since 2016 and snapped a four-game losing streak in the process. The bad news is that their offense has gone five straight games with 16 or fewer points scored for the first time since 2004. They should have trouble scoring against a Jets defense that has allowed fewer than 20 points per game (19.8) despite facing Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts this year and has three games with at least three takeaways.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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