NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 8: Picks & Predictions

There are upsets, and then there are UPSETS. We all saw Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose as double-digit favorites in Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but not many thought it would happen again in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers. That is because losing in consecutive weeks as double-digit favorites never did happen in Brady’s career before and has only happened three times in the previous 20 seasons, as the Buccaneers joined the 2013 Texans and 2009 Steelers in that dubious distinction.

As FanDuel explained on Twitter, many bettors lost big on the Buccaneers-Panthers result.

In addition to Tampa Bay, the New England Patriots lost outright as the week’s second-biggest favorite (-375) to the Chicago Bears, creating massive upheaval in survivor pools everywhere, with the top two favorites losing.

Are we in for more chaos this week?

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 8 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Philadelphia Eagles (-550), Buffalo Bills (-500)

This week is likely one where many will choose to resort to picking the best team in the NFC or AFC, given that there are just three favorites with odds greater than -210 this week. The Steelers are terrific as underdogs, as Mike Tomlin’s teams are 46-26-3 ATS as underdogs and have won more than half (38 of 75) of those games outright. In addition, in his tenure as Steelers head coach, they are the only team with an over .500 record as underdogs. However, the Eagles are the league’s only unbeaten team and have the second-best point differential (+56). Philadelphia should be too much to handle at home coming off a bye against a Kenny Pickett-led offense still trying to find its rhythm.

It seems blasphemous that we would support fading Aaron Rodgers as one of our safest plays in a survivor pool, but the Packers have done nothing to inspire confidence this season. Green Bay is off to its worst start (3-4) since 2006 and is already tied for its most losses in a season under Matt LaFleur. The 3-4 record is also the worst start in Rodgers’ career, and we do not expect the Packers to end a three-game losing streak on the road against a Bills team coming off a bye and one that has the league’s best point differential (+95) by a wide margin.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Dallas Cowboys (-480), Minnesota Vikings (-190)

Dak Prescott shook off the rust from a multi-game layoff and was a perfect 14-for-14 on throws between 0-10 air yards against the Lions. However, he went just 5-of-11 on throws 11+ yards, a cause for concern against a Bears defense that will likely gameplan to take away the short passing game. In addition, Chicago has the right formula to mitigate Dallas’ fierce pass rush, with a running game (led by a mobile quarterback) that totaled 243 yards on the ground against New England. As a result, the Cowboys are the most vulnerable of the top three favorites this week.

While we love the Eagles and Bills off bye weeks, we are less sold on the Vikings off a bye against the Cardinals. Arizona has its best perimeter weapon back in the fold in DeAndre Hopkins, and it is only a matter of time before he and Kyler Murray lead this offense to new heights. Arizona is 10-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including an 8-0 ATS record as road underdogs. Wait for a better spot to use Minnesota in survivor pools.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Atlanta Falcons (-210)

Atlanta’s run as an unbeaten ATS team ended last week as it failed to cover as +6.5 point underdogs in the previous week’s 35-17 loss to Cincinnati. For all of the Falcons’ ATS success, they are still under .500 (3-4) on the season and have a losing record through seven games for the fifth consecutive year. While Marcus Mariota is coming off his fourth straight game with fewer than 150 passing yards, the Falcons represent a solid contrarian play against a Panthers team that has won just four times in 21 games. Carolina is 2-0 against the division, but if you want to save the better teams for later in the season in your survivor pools, Atlanta is worth the risk as a contrarian play.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.