NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 9: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

Favorites went 11-5 SU in Week 8, with the two biggest casualties being the Baltimore Ravens (lost to the Cleveland Browns) and the New York Jets, who have now lost 15 of their last 16 regular season games at the New England Patriots.

Week 8 provided a great opportunity to avoid those landmines with a contrarian play of the Denver Broncos which we tipped last week, and the Carolina Panthers have now become a team that many survivor pool contestants are auto-fading at this point in the season.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

• NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• NFL Same Game Parlay Builder
• Touchdown Scorer Picks: Anytime | First
• More NFL Betting Advice

NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 9

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-460), Cincinnati Bengals (-390), Philadelphia Eagles (-360), New Orleans Saints (-330)

The Chiefs are rolling along with 13 straight wins (including playoffs), and are off to their third 7-0 start in franchise history. The crazy thing is that they are winning in spite of Patrick Mahomes to some degree, as he is the fourth quarterback in the last 10 seasons with an interception in each of the first seven games of a season. Kansas City has made its backers hold their breaths with five wins by a touchdown or less, but Tampa Bay is missing a lot of offensive firepower (Chris Godwin is out for the year, Mike Evans missed last week) to justify upsetting the two-time defending champions in Arrowhead.

The Bengals are coming off their first loss this season by more than one possession, and allowed points on seven of Philadelphia’s eight possessions last week. It was the third time this season Cincinnati allowed 37 or more points, and it fell to 0-4 at home for the first time since 2019. All of that should be reasons to put the Bengals in the “risky play” section, but Joe Burrow was getting hot with 15 total touchdowns and three turnovers entering the Eagles game, and Cincinnati had won three of four since starting 0-3. He should lead the Bengals to a win over a Raiders team amid a four-game losing streak.

The Eagles have allowed 12.0 points per game during a three-game winning streak, while Saquon Barkley has totaled 110-plus scrimmage yards in six of seven games. Philadelphia also secured its 23rd straight win when winning the turnover battle in last week’s game against Cincinnati. The Eagles are simply a much different offense with a healthy A.J. Brown. With Brown, Philadelphia is 4-0, has averaged 29.8 PPG, converted 31% of its third downs, and had 50% of its drives end in a touchdown or field goal. Without Brown, the team is 1-2, averaging 17.3 PPG, converting 45% of its third-downs, and has a 28% score percentage.

The summary about why to pick the Saints on the road over the Panthers comes down to one thing: will Derek Carr play? If he does not, New Orleans should be avoided in survivor pools. If he does play, I look for him to attack a Panthers defense that has allowed 28 or more points in five consecutive games, while Carolina has lost five straight games by 10-plus points for the first time in franchise history.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Baltimore Ravens (-510), Minnesota Vikings (-260)

The Ravens are the biggest favorite of any team on the Week 8 slate, but land in our risky play section because of a leaky defense. Baltimore has allowed 29 or more points in three of its last four games, and is coming off its second loss this season to a team with a losing record (Raiders and Browns). The Ravens pass defense has allowed 291.4 yards per game (last), 17 passing touchdowns (t-last), 40 completions of 15-plus air yards (last), and they are also the first team to allow more than 18 points to the Browns this season.

Six points is considered a big spread between any two NFL teams, and it becomes an even more eye-popping number when taking into consideration how competitive each Colts game has been this season. Indianapolis is the first team in NFL history to have its first eight games decided by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, Minnesota's offense will be compromised until it can find a suitable replacement for standout left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who the team lost to season-ending knee surgery last week.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Tennessee Titans (-166)

It does not get more contrarian than this, as the Titans are off to their worst start (1-6) since 2015. Tennessee has also not won outside Nashville or Miami since November 2022, and is 0-6 in Sunday games. 

Only if you are in a mega survivor pool where you are still trying to outlast hundreds of competitors would I entertain backing Tennessee over New England. If your pool has 50 or fewer people left, now is not the time to get cute, and one of the “safest picks” should be used.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.