NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 9: Picks & Predictions (2023)
On the surface, favorites did not perform all that well in Week 8, going 10-6 SU. However, from a survivor pool perspective, it was an altogether uneventful week, as seven of the top eight favorites were all victorious.
Though the Kansas City Chiefs were just the fifth-highest favorite in terms of moneyline odds in Week 8, they were likely the cause of many survivor pool casualties. Perhaps the odds do not do the weight of the upset any justice, as Kansas City had won 16 straight games against the Denver Broncos, 13 consecutive games against AFC West opponents, and six straight overall.
Those still alive in survivor pools face a tough week ahead, with 10 of the 14 games opening with spreads of a field goal or less.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 9 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
NFL Survivor Pool Advice
| TEAM | ODDS |
| New Orleans Saints | -400 |
| Cleveland Browns | -370 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -255 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -220 |
| Green Bay Packers | -166 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -166 |
| New England Patriots | -164 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -162 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -162 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -158 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -154 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -152 |
| Houston Texans | -148 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -146 |
Safest Picks
New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns
New Orleans will be our safest survivor pool pick of the week, provided that the Chicago Bears are again without the services of quarterback Justin Fields, who remains week-to-week with a thumb injury. The Saints are coming off a 511 total-yard performance against Indianapolis, their most in a game since 2020. In the process, Derek Carr became the first Saint with 300-plus passing yards in three straight games since Drew Brees in 2015-16. In addition, Alvin Kamara looks like he has shaken off the rust from his early season absence, as he just recorded his 11th career game with a receiving touchdown and rushing touchdown (ties Jim Brown for fifth on the all-time list). Especially if Tyson Bagent is under center, the Bears will not have enough offense to keep up with New Orleans, as they are the only team with more rushing yards (4,076) than passing yards (3,722) over the last two seasons.
Cleveland fell to 1-2 in its three games without Deshaun Watson as its starting quarterback and has averaged 14.0 points per game in that span. P.J. Walker now has one touchdown and six turnovers in his starts, and the Browns fell to 0-3 this season when turning the ball over three or more times. However, the Browns were still in complete control of their road game against the Seattle Seahawks before their offense stalled in the fourth quarter (punt, interception, and turnover on downs on three fourth-quarter possessions). Cleveland was again led by a dominant defense that held the Seahawks to five punts and two interceptions in drives from the second to the fourth quarter before Walker's interception, and we expect the Browns to get right at home against an Arizona Cardinals team that has lost five straight and is 0-4 on the road.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons might have been home underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings this week if Kirk Cousins was still under center. However, Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the fourth quarter of last week’s game, which opens the door for rookie Jaren Hall’s first start. However, Minnesota can still lean on a defense that has allowed 13.3 points per game during a three-game win streak, and they enter Week 9 as the only NFC team with an active winning streak of three or more games. Furthermore, Atlanta has quarterback issues of its own, as Desmond Ridder was cleared to return to last week’s game after clearing concussion protocol but was held out in favor of veteran backup Taylor Heinicke. Atlanta has gone six straight games with 23 or fewer points scored for the first time since the 2015 season, and even though they are a respectable 4-4 the third year in a row, Minnesota is too hot of a team to oppose in survivor pools, even with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots
This is the first time this season we are offering two contrarian plays, but that is a testament to how difficult a week this is shaping up to be in survivor pools.
Green Bay is off to its worst start (2-5) since 2005 and has averaged just 15.0 points per game during a four-game losing streak. The Packers offense has gone five straight games with 20 points or fewer for the first time since 2005, and they have zero games this season with 350-plus yards of total offense. However, we would look long and hard at the Packers as a possible contrarian survivor pool play against the Los Angeles Rams only if the sprained thumb that Matthew Stafford suffered last week keeps him out of action this week. The other two healthy quarterbacks on the depth chart are Brett Rypien and John Wolford, who do not exactly inspire confidence to win at Lambeau Field, no matter how poorly the Packers offense is performing.
New England’s 31-17 Week 8 loss to the Miami Dolphins marked its seventh game this season with 20 points or fewer. It was also the Patriots’ fourth straight loss at Miami for the first time since losing five straight from 1998-2002. The Patriots are off to their worst start (2-6) since 2000, but their two wins are against AFC East rivals (the Bills and Jets) that are each over .500, and they face a Commanders team that has lost five of six games since starting 2-0. Washington may find a reprieve from not facing a divisional opponent, as it is 0-3 in the NFC East for the first time since 2019. However, Washington still has one of the worst pass-blocking units in the league, so we expect Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to dial up pressure and knock Commanders quarterback Sam Howell down a peg after his four-touchdown performance against the Eagles.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.