NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Wild Card Weekend: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The country’s most famous NFL survivor pool ended dramatically in Week 18. Three contestants were alive heading into the regular season finale, and if all their picks had won, they would have split the $6.133 million prize three ways. However, once the Indianapolis Colts lost, the prize was divided between the two contestants who finished the season 20-0 and used the Jaguars and Seahawks in the last week.
Now that we enter the NFL playoffs, survivor pool contestants have a brand new opportunity to cash in. While the rules of only picking one team for the duration of the playoffs remain the same, the strategy changes in a playoff format since teams get eliminated each week, meaning there are subsequently fewer teams to choose from. Thus, when it gets to the conference championships or the Super Bowl, people may be eliminated by having no teams left to choose from, in addition to making an incorrect pick.
NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Wild Card Weekend: Picks & Predictions (2022)
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in the Wild Card Round (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Safest Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (-290)
While the Bills and 49ers are much more likely to win their first-round matchups as double-digit favorites, the Bengals are the smartest survivor pool play, given that they are less likely to advance further in the playoffs than Buffalo and San Francisco. FiveThirtyEight projects Cincinnati to have a 31% chance to make the conference championship game, while the 49ers and Bills have 55% and 61% chances to make their conference championship games, respectively. Cincinnati has the longest active winning streak of any AFC team (8) and faces a Baltimore team that still has questions about its starting quarterback. Even if Lamar Jackson returns, he has not practiced in any capacity since December 4th. Thus, his biggest strength (running ability) would likely be compromised due to the severity of his knee injury.
Other Picks to Consider
San Francisco 49ers (-500), Buffalo Bills (-590)
If I were deciding between the 49ers or the Bills, the 49ers would be the choice in this round. San Francisco is a popular pick to come out of the NFC and reach the Super Bowl. Still, I have growing concerns about rookie Brock Purdy the deeper he advances in the playoffs, even though he is the first rookie quarterback ever to win his first five starts (joining Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Kruczek).
Meanwhile, Buffalo was the only team to be favored in every game this season and lost their three games by a combined eight points. Therefore, it would be wisest to save them as long as possible, as they have the best chance (35%) of any non-No. 1 seed to reach the Super Bowl.
Risky Plays
Minnesota Vikings (-166), Dallas Cowboys (-148), Los Angeles Chargers (-112)
Those who select one of these three teams (or their opponents), and are correct, would earn a significant edge in playoff survivor pools going forward since it is unlikely any of them will make a deep playoff run. But good luck deciding which, if any, of these teams will win.
Minnesota had a -3 point differential despite going 13-4 this season, a testament to its struggles against better competition. And in Week 16, the Giants outgained the Vikings 445-353, with Minnesota surviving on a walk-off 61-yard field goal.
Dallas has lost each of its last eight road playoff games dating back to 1995 and now faces Tom Brady, who is 7-0 SU in his career against them. The Buccaneers crushed the Cowboys on the road in Week 1 19-3, holding Dallas to 244 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.
Los Angeles faces a red-hot Jaguars team that ended the regular season on a five-game winning streak. The Chargers had played better defense through their four-game winning streak entering Week 18 (allowing 11 points per game in that span), but Trevor Lawrence is a dangerous opposing quarterback. Entering Week 18, Lawrence had five games with a 100+ passer rating since Week 9 (tied for the most in the NFL).
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.