NFL Survivor Pool Advice Picks & Predictions: Week 17 (2022)

The following is a tweet of last week’s picks for the CircaSurvivor competition in Las Vegas with a grand prize of over $6,000,000. Thus, just three entries are left, as Maddog-2 lost in Week 16 with the Dolphins. It is not likely that many survivor pools around the country are still going, but we hope these articles give you insight betting-wise on which teams would be wise to wager on or fade from a moneyline perspective.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 17 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

Safest Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-750), Dallas Cowboys (-500), Los Angeles Chargers (-335), Philadelphia Eagles (-320)

Not coincidentally, the safest picks for the week are the top four steepest moneyline favorites.

The Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 14 consecutive times and are not in danger of doing so again the week after Denver fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The Cowboys need a win over the Titans to keep pressure on the Eagles, as Dallas would win the NFC East with wins in its final two games and two losses by Philadelphia. Conversely, Tennessee may rest players as it does not have a lot to play for, with their playoff fate coming down to next week’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, regardless of what happens this week. We are not putting too much stock into the Rams’ 51-point outburst against the Broncos, as it was likely more of a product of Denver’s dysfunction. Lastly, even if Gardner Minshew is under center for Philadelphia for a second straight week, we were encouraged by his 355-yard and two-touchdown performance against the Cowboys. The Eagles will be motivated to get this win to wrap up the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a week remaining in the regular season.

Favorites went 11-5 SU last week, with each of the top four winning outright. Thus, if you think that will happen again this week, a four-leg moneyline parlay with these teams pays a much more enticing +131 odds than betting them individually.

Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular

Jacksonville Jaguars (-200), Green Bay Packers (-194), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-162)

Like the Titans, the Jaguars are in a similar spot entering this week, as their result against the Texans does not matter in the standings, as Jacksonville would need a win either way against Tennessee to clinch the AFC South. In addition, Houston has surprisingly had Jacksonville’s number of late, winning each of the previous nine head-to-head matchups.

The Vikings became the first team in NFL history to win 11 one-possession games in a season, improving to 11-0 in such games this year. Green Bay has been hot during a three-game winning streak that revitalized its playoff hopes, but if you want to fade Minnesota in a game that projects to be close, that is your prerogative.

Bettors seem to be waiting each week for the game that Tom Brady and the Buccaneers “get right.” However, Tampa Bay has scored 23 or fewer points in 14 of 15 games this season and faces a Carolina team that had two teammates (D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard) each run for 100+ yards in the first half against a solid Lions run defense last week.

Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool

Atlanta Falcons (-188)

The Falcons are playing in their first game having been eliminated from playoff contention, but we still like them to beat a reeling Cardinals team that has lost five consecutive games and is seemingly playing out the string. Arizona has the NFC’s second-worst point differential (-83) entering this week, while eight of Atlanta’s ten losses have been by one possession. The Falcons have found a running game with Tyler Allgeier (at least 74 yards rushing or a 5.2 yards per carry average in the last three weeks), and we look for rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder to earn his first NFL victory and end the team’s four-game losing streak.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.