NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 1 Picks & Predictions (2024)
Each week, I will advise which teams are best to select in survivor pools. Bettors that don’t enter these types of pools can still use this information from a betting perspective if they are comfortable laying big odds on moneylines. Here are my top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 1.
NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 1: Picks & Predictions (2024)
The premise for NFL survivor pools is simple: pick one team a week to win, and you cannot pick the same team twice. But talk to any survivor pool contestants that have been knocked out of their pools before the end of September, and they will tell you it is not that easy.
This year’s NFL Week 1 is setting up to be a difficult one from a survivor pool perspective, as 11 of the 16 games have point spreads of 3.5 or lower.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Safest Picks
Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, New Orleans Saints
The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team on the Week 1 slate than are bigger than a touchdown favorite, and that is because they host a New England Patriots team that is expected to get off to a rocky start under head coach Jerod Mayo. The Patriots finished last in the AFC East in 2023 for the first time since 2000, and the team’s 13.9 points per game were their fewest in a season since 1992. I do not expect Jacoby Brissett to be the answer at quarterback for a team that ranked 31st or worse in Total QBR, third-down percentage, and Offensive Efficiency, especially after doing little to upgrade at the skill positions.
The Buffalo Bills will look like a much different team in 2024 after moving on from Stefon Diggs and shedding payroll with veteran contracts like those of safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. However, this is still a Bills team whose 63 wins since 2019 are the most of any team in a five-year span that failed to reach a Super Bowl. And one big constant remaining is Josh Allen, who over the last four seasons has 48 wins, a 71 Total QBR, 137 passing touchdowns, and 17,540 passing yards, all of which are second to Patrick Mahomes in that span. The Arizona Cardinals offense will look to improve dramatically after drafting Marvin Harrison Jr., but this is a tough opening-week matchup for them in a 1:00 p.m. game in the eastern time zone.
This is admittedly my least safe of the “safest picksâ€, as I am picking on the Carolina Panthers, the only team in the league to win fewer than four games a year ago. While the hire of Dave Canales as head coach figures to help an offense that averaged the fewest points per game (12.6) and yards per play (4.1), the New Orleans Saints have won 11 of the previous 15 matchups between these teams, including both of last year’s meetings by a combined score of 48-23. Derek Carr went 8-4 with a 21-6 TD-INT ratio, a 63 Total QBR, and a 7.6 yards per attempt average against teams that were .500 or worse last year, and I do not expect him to lose this home season opener.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle’s odds jumped considerably in this matchup when the Denver Broncos named Bo Nix the Week 1 starting quarterback. However, while Nix is the first rookie quarterback to start for Denver in Week 1 since 1983, he is certainly not lacking experience, as his 61 career starts in college are the most of any FBS quarterback, and he also ranks in the top-four all-time in total offense (16,695 yards ranks second) and touchdowns responsible for (152, tied for fourth).
Last year's trio of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson tied the record for most rookie quarterbacks to start in Week 1. Those three lost their first starts by a combined 40 points, but lost to teams that finished a combined 29-22. Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders should have a much better chance at success against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad that is projected to win 7.5 games. By contrast, Washington has an O/U of 6.5 wins, despite playing in what is considered a much tougher division with two of the top-four NFC favorites in the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Chicago Bears
If you are buying the Caleb Williams hype as the quarterback that will take the Chicago Bears to new heights, you could do worse for a contrarian Play than backing the Bears at home to win against the Tennessee Titans. Even if Williams struggles early, Chicago comes into this game with a lot of momentum on the defensive side of the ball from last season when in the last eight games they allowed 17.1 points per game (ranked first), had 19 takeaways (2nd), and allowed a 39 Total QBR (4th), while going 5-3 in that span. However, there is plenty of talent surrounding Williams, as a top-five rookie quarterback has never played with two 1,200-yard receivers, and DJ Moore (1,364) and Keenan Allen (1,243) accomplished that last year.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.