NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 11: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

Favorites went 9-5 SU in Week 10, and for the most part there were no massive upsets, as each of the top five moneyline favorites of the week won outright. However, at this stage of the season, survivor pool contestants may not have had any of the elite teams available to use in their competitions, meaning anyone who tried to get by with selections of the Chicago Bears or New York Giants were burned last week.

This projects to be a difficult week for survivor pool contestants, as many of the best teams play each other (Commanders-Eagles, Ravens-Steelers, Chiefs-Bills), but it also provides opportunities to advance while using a more subpar team.

Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.

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NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Week 11

Safest NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Detroit Lions (-820), Miami Dolphins (-400), San Francisco 49ers (-280)

Want an idea of how good the Lions are? They beat the AFC South-leading Texans last week after trailing 23-7 at halftime, and Jared Goff became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to win a road game despite throwing five interceptions. Detroit has won seven straight games, the last two of which were road victories against likely playoff teams (Packers and Texans), and should dominate a Jaguars team off to their worst start (2-8) since 2021. Jacksonville’s offense looked lifeless last week, totaling 143 total yards in Mac Jones’ first start with the team. It was also Jones’ fourth career game with zero passing touchdowns and three or more turnovers.

Most weeks the Miami Dolphins would land in our “risky play” section, given that they are off a short week having played on Monday night while facing a Raiders team that had a bye last week. However, with the pickings being slim this week, I fully endorse using the Dolphins in survivor pools in this spot, while taking advantage of a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill is clearly not 100% as evidence by his play in Week 10, but Las Vegas is a dysfunctional team at the moment. The Raiders are amid their longest losing streak (five games) since 2018 (as the Oakland Raiders). They have also lost five games by 10-plus points, and in their last game, they benched Gardner Minshew for Desmond Ridder in the third quarter.

The 49ers are 1-2 in division games, but the Seahawks are worse (0-2) against NFC West opponents, and the return of Christian McCaffrey seemed to spark San Francisco last week. The 49ers have won consecutive games for the first time this season, and Brock Purdy is coming off his first career game with 350-plus passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. San Francisco is considered a safe play because Purdy is 13-4 with a 33-11 TD-INT ratio when McCaffrey is healthy, and it has won six straight games against Seattle.

Riskier NFL Survivor Pool Picks That Will Be Popular

Houston Texans (-375), Minnesota Vikings (-290), Green Bay Packers (-275)

The Texans need to quickly get over the mental hurdle of blowing a 16-point halftime lead to the Lions last week. Detroit held Joe Mixon to a season-low 1.8 yards per rush, and C.J. Stroud totaled a QBR of 1, while completing 39% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt in the second half last week. Dallas has allowed 34.5 points per game during a four-game losing streak, and set an NFL record with trailing by at least 20 points in five consecutive home games. However, the Cowboys defense also pressured Jalen Hurts on 54% of his dropbacks (the highest in any start in his career), which spells trouble for Houston’s poor offensive line.

The Vikings were fortunate to escape Jacksonville with a win last week, as they became the first team since 2000 to win with zero touchdowns and three or more interceptions. Minnesota’s defense has been dominant, allowing 10.0 points per game during a two-game winning streak. But while the Vikings are 4-0 against the AFC this season, Sam Darnold is still coming off a three-interception day, and the Titans are capable of beating Minnesota if the Vikings play like they did in Week 10.

The Packers face a Bears team that has scored 9.0 points per game during a three-game losing streak, and Chicago has gone back-to-back games (and 23 total drives) without a touchdown. However, Chicago still had won eight straight home games before last week’s loss to New England, and I want no part of supporting Green Bay in this divisional road game when it has other more winnable games on the schedule.

Contrarian NFL Survivor Pool Picks to Beat a Large Pool

Los Angeles Rams (-225)

The Rams could not muster a touchdown (had to settle for five field goals) in Week 10’s Monday night loss to the Dolphins, and they now face a Patriots team that is 2-1 after a 1-6 start. While New England’s road win at Chicago last week was impressive, it was also its first by more than one possession since December 2022.

Los Angeles activated offensive linemen Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson last week, making it the healthiest it has been in quite some time. It also entered last week ranked ninth in yards after the catch from wide receivers, and fourth in defensive pressure rate, so the Rams are a solid contrarian play even though they are in the difficult spot of coming from the West Coast and playing in the 1:00 p.m. ET time slot.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.