NFL Survivor Pool Advice for Week 3: Picks & Predictions (2022)
There was not as much carnage in survivor pools in Week 2 as in Week 1, as the top five favorites of the week were victorious. However, those who opted to use Cincinnati to take advantage of Dallas’ injury to Dak Prescott were snake-bitten by backup quarterback Cooper Rush, who went 2-0 in his second NFL start. And for those who picked Cleveland, my thoughts and prayers are with you.
Like last week, my selections for this week will be broken down into the following categories: safest picks, riskier plays that will be popular, and contrarian plays to beat a large pool. Even though survivor pool rules say you cannot pick the same team twice, I will outline multiple scenarios if bettors wish to navigate their own path.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their matchups in Week 3 (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
Odds as of Wednesday
Safest Picks
Los Angeles Chargers (-320), Kansas City Chiefs (-290), Cincinnati Bengals (-215)
You know it will be a tough week in survivor pools when the top favorite has only -320 odds and is one whose quarterback is highly questionable to play as he is dealing with fractured rib cartilage. If Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is eventually ruled out for this week, we will pivot to one of our other “safest pick†plays, as backup Chase Daniel does not inspire nearly the same confidence Herbert does. Jacksonville enters this week on an 18-game road losing streak, but this is only a play if Herbert is a go.
Given how difficult of a week this sets up to be, one might be forced to use the Chiefs way earlier than they thought they would, and against a quality opponent to boot. Unfortunately, Kansas City does not have the most inspiring run defense as the following were their rankings from last year: run stop win rate (27%- worst), yards per rush (4.8- 2nd worst), 3rd down pct (66%- 2nd worst). That is troubling when facing Jonathan Taylor, but quarterback Matt Ryan has not done anything to this point (one touchdown to four interceptions) to take the pressure off the running game. In addition, Indianapolis’s 10.0 ppg average against the two worst teams in the division will not cut it against Kansas City’s explosive offense.
Cincinnati’s 0-2 start coming off a run to the Super Bowl is shocking, especially since they lost both games at -7 point favorites or greater. In addition, there is a growing concern over their offensive line’s ability to protect Joe Burrow and keep him healthy for the entire season, and the Bengals were just outgained by a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys team 337-254. However, we are not getting too excited about the Jets’ once-in-a-lifetime comeback against the Browns, that never would have happened if Nick Chubb did not unnecessarily score a touchdown late in the game when the team was in a position to kneel out the clock. Cincinnati lost 34-31 on the road against the Jets last season and will be motivated to avenge that loss this week.
Riskier Plays That Will Be Popular
Buffalo Bills (-245), Minnesota Vikings (-240)
Per ESPN Stats & Info, Buffalo’s +55 point differential in its first two games against two teams who made the playoffs the prior year is the largest of all 201 teams before them who started 2-0 against two playoff teams. Thus, we get why people would be quick to pick the Bills over the Dolphins in a week where the pickings are slim, especially since Buffalo has won seven straight meetings with Miami. However, this Dolphins offense is the most explosive it has been since the Dan Marino days, and Tyreek Hill has been known to torment the Bills defense (see the Divisional Round box score from last year against KC).
The Vikings are coming off a short week and face a Lions team that has scored 35.5 ppg through the first two weeks. From an ATS perspective, Detroit is 2-0 as head coach Dan Campbell’s team continues to churn out profits for Lions backers. In addition to Campbell’s 13-6 overall ATS record as Lions head coach, his teams are 4-2 ATS (including four straight covers) and have returned a 27.6% ROI in their six division games. Detroit always seems to be involved in close games lately, and we do not want to hold our breath with the Vikings for 60 minutes.
Contrarian Play to Beat a Large Pool
Chicago Bears (-144)
There is no shame in Chicago’s 27-10 loss to Green Bay at Lambeau Field, as the Packers have now won 22 of their 24 regular season home games under head coach Matt LaFleur. For those that want to zig while the others zag, one could look at the Bears’ chances to beat a Texans team led by Davis Mills, who is 2-10-1 in his young career as a starter. Since the start of last season, Houston is 4-0 versus Jacksonville and 4-26-1 against the rest of the NFL. Thus, a Bears pick is justified and would give survivor pool participants a massive advantage over their competitors, who will likely use much better teams this week.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.