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NFL Thanksgiving Betting Primer & Expert Picks: (Week 12)

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Welcome to the BettingPros Week 12 NFL Extravaganza, Thanksgiving style! I’m Andrew Erickson, your guide through the captivating and often unpredictable world of NFL betting. From expert insights to strategic recommendations, we’re covering everything from classic spreads to the most enticing player props, culminating in potential game-changing single-game parlays.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

Thanksgiving Football Betting Primer: Week 12

As featured in the main BettingPros Primer, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays. Also featured are the top player props, with more analysis in the game-by-game breakdowns.

Top favorites:

  • 49ers -7
  • Lions -7.5

Top underdogs:

  • Commanders +13.5

Top totals:

  • Over 48.5 DAL/WAS
  • Under 44 SF/SEA
  • Over 46.5 DET/GB

Top props:

Detroit Lions (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

We are kicking off the Thanksgiving Day Slate back at Coors Field - ahem - I mean Ford Field. Stressed the "over" in the friendliest stadiums for scoring in the NFL in Week 11, and it came through with flying colors. Insert the Packers offense coming off their first 300-yard passing yard game since January of 2022, I expect to see more fireworks.

Even if 5 of the Packers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Packers are 4-1 toward the under at home, but 3-2 toward the over on the road. And their one "under" at home came against the Lions a few Thursday nights back.

These teams have combined to average 45 points total this season. And historically, betting on the Lions at home to go OVER the projected total has been profitable.

In their last 14 home games, the average total has been 55.6 points. 86% of the games have scored at least 51 points.

From a sides perspective, the Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six home games against the Packers. They are winners of 7 of their last 8 straight up against all teams.

The Lions are 6-1 ATS as favorites over their last 7 games. Overall, they've covered in their last 16 of 20 games (80%).

They have been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 23-8 (74%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.

And they have been an absolute juggernaut at home, averaging a +8.6-scoring margin in Motown.

The Packers are 1-4 ATS in the last five games as underdogs and 1-4 overall on the road. 3-5 overall as straight dogs. And they got lucky last week to escape with a win against the Chargers. They hit three TDs of 20-plus yards. Entering Week 11, the Lions had allowed the league's LOWEST explosive play rate on defense. They currently rank 4th.

The Packers are 4-6 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien) and Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley. Lol.

Don't get things confused. Even if the Packers have looked better on offense (again better for the total) this team is still bad. Take Detroit in a statement win on Thanksgiving. They enter this game at least 10x healthier than the Packers, who have a laundry list of injuries.

Green Bay has an atrocious run defense - 5th in rushing yards allowed, 4th in rush rate faced - that I fully expect the Lions to take advantage of. Facing the No. 1 defense in terms of rushing yards allowed last week in the Bears, Detroit ran the ball at +10% over expectation.

As for props, give me all the Jayden Reed overs you can find. Reed's a Michigan State/Western Michigan product, so this is going to be a homecoming for him. I think we see a MASSIVE performance.

Reed caught 4 passes for 46 yards on 6 targets (15.8% target share) in Week 11. He led the team in targets in the first half and finished with just one fewer route than Watson (77%). He's breaking out folks. And better yet, 39.5 receiving yards is his Week 12 line on Prizepicks. Put respect on this man. OVER.

Not only is he heating up, but the matchup is also perfect for him as the team's slot receiver.

The Lions are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs - nearly double the amount they allow on the perimeter.

And fade Christian Watson. He has surpassed 45.5 receiving yards ONCE this season in 7 games played. Last week, his first target came at the end of the first half.

The Packers run defense is horrible, but their secondary has been solid. Only one QB they have faced this season has thrown for 270 passing yards or more. Goff threw for a season-low 210 passing yards the last time he faced the Packers this season. And his passing yardage prop has been bet DOWN since opening at 269.5 passing yards on Prizepicks.

Because the Packers are so bad against the run, teams don't throw a ton against them. The last five QBs that have played Green Bay have finished under their projected passing yardage and passing attempts props. They are facing just 31 attempts per game - the 6th-lowest mark in the NFL. Conversely, they are facing 31 rushing attempts per game. Take the over on Jahmyr Gibb’s rushing attempts (9.5). He had 10 carries in the first half two weeks ago.

My Picks

  • Lions -7.5
  • Over 46.5

My Props

Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) vs. Washington Commanders

The Cowboys have covered the spread as favorites in 8 of their last 9 games. The overall favorites have covered the spread in 10 of the Cowboys' last 11 games. And although I was off Dallas last week - the game was close/competitive until a Bryce Young pick-six - this team has been LIGHT'S OUT - at home.

They have been by FAR the best home team in the NFL.

5-0 ATS at home with an average point differential of +27.5. This team kills bad teams, especially when they play at home. 12 straight home wins.

Sam Howell has been very matchup-based, with the Giants being one team that has thwarted his passing efforts. They play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Who ranks third in that category? The Dallas Cowboys.

The Commanders’ defense is also atrocious when it comes to stopping big plays.

It's so bad it could be a bit.

Over the last six weeks, Dak Prescott ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7) and in completions of 10-plus yards (47). Carolina did their best to limit big plays last week (their defense is underrated). That is not likely going to happen this week against the Commanders.

Turnovers continue to determine whether or not the Commanders cover, and that was the reason why they collapsed against the Giants. 6 turnovers killed them. No team can cover - let alone win - with a -6-turnover margin. Dallas has the No. 1 turnover margin at home (+1.5).

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 16 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense.

The gameplan for Washington "should" be able to run the football, as Carolina was successful in that capacity against this fierce defense. Their RBs averaged nearly 5 yards per carry. Both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders rushed for 50-plus yards versus Dallas. Brian Robinson surpassing 38.5 rushing yards is hardly a crazy bar to reach.

But we know the Commanders' identity is to throw the ball, and I don't see that changing especially with how bad their defense is. Even if they look to run early, they will likely have to give up the ground attack if they fall behind.

And that's my concern with Dallas covering the large spread against a team that is willing to throw the ball all over the yard. That can keep them in games.

On the road as underdogs this season, the Commanders are 5-0 ATS.

And again as I mentioned before Dallas' dominance at home - it's been against some of the league's worst offenses. Washington is hardly a bottom-dwelling offense.

As for the total, 5 of the Cowboys’ last 6 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last four of five games through the air. 3-1 toward the over at home.

48.5 points were scored on average between these two teams. Ten of the Cowboys’ last 11 home games against NFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

The Commanders have gone under the projected total in three of the last six games. Should be noted that if Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.

When they allow 20 points on defense - 6-1 toward the OVER.

Somehow the Giants posted 31 points on them (the most they have scored all year) and the game hit the over. They had scored 20 points on offense once before Week 11.

Easy over me in this spot.

Dallas is 3-1 toward the over at home this season, while the Commanders are 3-3 toward the over on the road.

As for props, I am going back to the opposing QB rushing props for Sam Howell at 15.5 rushing yards. Bryce Young had it in the BAG last week versus Dallas to hit the over on the rushing attempts but didn't come through.

70% of the QBs Dallas has faced this season have gone over their projected rushing totals.

They are allowing on average 27 rushing yards per game to QBs and the second-most attempts (5.8). The Cowboys play man coverage at a top-3 rate, which invites more QB runs. Howell has rushed for 11-plus yards in all but one game this season. He's gone over 17 yards in three straight games.

Logan Thomas has gone over 40 receiving yards 7 of 10 games played this season. He could see more favorable looks against the heavy-man coverage Dallas deploys.

My favorite prop on the Dallas side comes from Brandin Cooks, whose receiving yardage prop is set egregiously at 34.5 yards. Since the bye week and the Cowboys started dialing up their passing game, he's gone over this in three of his last contests. Over that span he has 14 targets of 10-plus air yards, catching ten for 232 receiving yards. He's the No. 2 explosive playmaker in this offense and he should take full advantage of this extremely leaky secondary. He also has 2-plus receptions in four of his last five games played. 3-0 toward the over at home.

My Picks

  • Over 48.5
  • Washington +13.5

My Props

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7)

The Seahawks have covered the spread in five of their last six games as home underdogs. Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-4-1 ATS. 2-1-1 ATS at home. The favorites have won 6 of the last 7 Seahawks games.

The biggest issue for the Seattle offense has been a lack of TDs scored. The red-zone offense ranks 22nd in the NFL. The 49ers defense has the third-best red-zone defense on the road this season and is allowing the second-fewest red-zone trips per game - second to only the Cleveland Browns. Seattle's defense ranks 3rd in that category, allowing the third-fewest red-zone trips per game.

Seattle's pass defense has also improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year...they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in six of their last seven games. The average total of these two teams is 43.5 or the current O/U set line at the majority of books. When in doubt, bet the prime time under.

5 of the Seahawks' last 7 home games have gone UNDER the total points line, while the 49ers have played one game that has gone OVER on the road this season. The last two Seattle games have gone over, which is why I lean toward some regression taking place in this matchup, giving credence to the under. Kenneth Walker is expected to miss (IR candidate) and losing his home-run hitting skill set weighs favor to the under. Geno Smith is also no sure-fire bet to play either.

As for the sides, I bet SF -6.5 early which is where most of the lines have settled as of this writing. Again, they have so much firepower when healthy that I can't envision Seattle keeping it within a TD's length with their offensive red-zone issues.

SF went into Seattle last year and beat the Seahawks 21-13. Think we could see something similar in this spot. When healthy, there's no question in my mind who the best team in the NFL is. And if Drew Lock is named the starter...oh boy.

For player props...

Prizepicks has a Christian McCaffrey freebie of O/U 0.5 yards from scrimmage, so start with that as you build your slip.

The 49ers should face a TON of passing volume from the Seattle side. Their defense has also allowed 60-plus receiving yards to 8 different WRs over the last 6 games.

The over has hit in 7/10 of games for opposing No. 1 WRs facing the 49ers, including four of 5 games with 100 yards-plus allowed. DK Metcalf. Come on down. Over 59.5 receiving yards. He's hit this number back-to-back weeks and has hit the over this season at a 66% clip.

The Seattle pass defense is good, but they get shredded from the slot. Deebo Samuel has played the most snaps from the slot in the last 2 weeks, catching 7 balls for 93 yards on 8 targets. Brandon Aiyuk is traditionally used on the perimeter, but he FEASTs when he moves inside.

He has 200-plus yards from the slot - 8 catches and 9 targets - in the last 2 games. George Kittle has the most slot targets (13), catching 11 for 205 yards.

The overs on the 49ers pass-catchers all seem like +EV bets – the BettingPros Prop Bet cheat sheet projections are in on the overs – but I think I will settle on Kittle as my preferred 49er to target. He has been on a tear over the last four games, with 78-plus yards in four straight games. He and Brock Purdy are clicking, and his receiving yards prop is the lowest among the Big Three - not including CMC. His prop has been bet UP on Prizepicks after opening at 46.5 yards. The “sharps” are all over Kittle. Seattle ranks 23rd in DVOA versus tight ends, allowing 55 receiving yards per game to the position this season.

My Picks

  • 49ers -7
  • Under 44

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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