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NFL Thanksgiving Picks & Player Prop Bets: Week 13 (2024)

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Thanksgiving and football - a tradition as old as the holiday itself! As we gather around the table, Week 13 delivers a feast of NFL action with three marquee matchups on Thanksgiving Day. I'm Andrew Erickson, here to break down every angle of this special holiday slate, from the early kickoffs to the prime-time showdown under the lights.

With playoff implications on the line, family rivalries rekindled, and teams vying to make their mark, these games promise fierce competition and plenty of drama. Whether you’re digesting turkey or crafting the perfect same-game parlay, I'll guide you through the spreads, totals, and standout player props to target across all three matchups.

So, grab your favorite plate of food, settle into the couch, and prepare to enjoy a day filled with football and winning bets. This is just the start - stay tuned for my full BettingPros Week 13 Sunday Primer dropping soon!

NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Tripleheader: Feast and Football Edition

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Sides:

  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 11 home games.
  • The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 12 of the Bears' last 16 games.
  • The Bears are 11-7-1 ATS and 10-9 straight up in their last 19 games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in 10 of the Bears' last 11 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in five of their last six games.
  • The Bears are 5-11-1 ATS as road underdogs. 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
  • The Lions are 22-9 ATS as favorites.
  • They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 18-7 ATS over their last 25 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
  • The Lions have won each of their last nine games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Lions have won their last 13 games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Lions have won 11 of their last 13 home games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 14 of their last 15 games.
  • The Lions have been the first to 15 points in their last nine home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in their last 13 road games following a home win.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Bears' last 11 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Bears’ last seven road games has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bears' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • They are 11-5-1 under the point total in their last 16 games.
  • Fourteen of the Bears' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Fourteen of the Lions’ last 22 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 24 home games has been 54.6 points; 75 percent (18/24) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Eight of the Lions’ last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Lions' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions’ last three road games have gone under the total.

Overall:

We don't need to sugarcoat this game, folks. We know the Lions are good, and they cover the spread better than any other team in the NFL. Although I did feel, re-watching last week’s game, that the Colts were not overmatched, the Bears are such a different team on the road than at home. If I am picking sides, I’ll just stick with the Lions.

But I don't love it as my best bet in this game.

Again, what have we seen all season regarding divisional games? Weird stuff is going to happen, like it or not.

And give credit to Chicago, who has shown life offensively the last two weeks. They won't go down quietly and are 2-0 ATS.

But that leads me to my favorite bet. Over 47.5 points for a game at Ford Field? Blasphemy.

I've never seen a game played in Detroit that I didn't love the over because the trends toward points are so strong. The Lions’ offense can score on anyone, and the Bears’ recent offensive success gives me confidence that they can do enough to push this game over the total.

And there's always the chance Detroit will just cover the game total themselves, which they have done in the last two home games.

The advanced stats back it up. According to Next Gen Stats, Jared Goff has totaled league-highs in completion percentage (74.5%) and yards (1,809), against single-high safety coverage this season, while ranking second in yards per attempt (9.4).

Goff has also generated a league-high +49.6 EPA on such dropbacks, good for +0.24 EPA per dropback, the most in the NFL. The Bears’ defense has deployed single-high safety coverage at the 5th-highest rate this season (60.5%) but has allowed the 10th-most yards per attempt (7.8) when doing so.

Props:

  • David Montgomery has scored at least one touchdown in the Lions’ last six regular season home games. Against his old team, I think he scores first.
  • D.J. Moore had a monster Week 12 performance, catching all 7 of his targets for 106 yards and a red-zone touchdown. He was dynamic after the catch, accumulating 86 YAC and recording a long reception of 37 yards. I bet the under on Moore's as the new bubble screen king, but his moves after the catch burned me to a crisp. His aDOT was 3.5 yards. He also finished fourth in targets on the day (15% Target share). There are some signs of concern moving forward if he is completely limited to this short ADOT role. According to Next Gen Stats, Moore has averaged 1.9 air yards per target in the last two weeks.
  • Moore has caught all seven of his targets behind the line of scrimmage for 96 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks, recording 120 yards after the catch and generating +8.9 EPA, both league-highs since Week 11.
  • The Lions’ defense has allowed just 66.7% of quick passes to be completed this season, the lowest rate in the NFL. However, the Lions have also generated a 55.3% defensive success rate against quick passes this season, the fourth-highest in the league (Next Gen Stats).
  • Over the last two weeks, Caleb Williams has 23-plus completions, 230-plus passing yards, and 31-plus pass attempts. The Lions' defense ranks second in the NFL in completions allowed at home this season (22.2). Take the over on 21.5 completions for the Bears' rookie QB this week. Over in his last two games and three of his last four. He has also gone over in all but one road game played this season.
  • Rome Odunze was targeted 10 times but caught just five passes for 39 yards. He had the ideal usage you love to see-110 air yards, multiple end-zone red-zone looks-but he fell short. Buy him low everywhere across the board. He has played enough from the slot-at least 40%-in the last two weeks to benefit from the positive matchup versus Detroit.
  • Williams relied on Odunze in key moments in this game. Fourth and 3, Williams connected with his fellow rookie on a 14-yard dart that helped Chicago force overtime.
  • He is an uber-talented rookie and leads the Bears in air yards this season amid difficult target competition. In the last two weeks, he trails only Keenan Allen on the team in Target share (25% versus 29%) despite 223 air yards. His explosion game is coming.
  • Therefore, I am going OVER 42.5 receiving yards for Odunze. He has seven straight games with at least 39 yards. And no defense has allowed more targets to No. 3 WRs than the Lions this season. #Kaboom.
  • The Lions are the No.1-ranked defense against tight ends this season (fewest yards allowed per game).
  • The Bears have allowed 10 of the last 11 RBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yards prop. More than 71.5 rushing yards for Jahmyr Gibbs on Thanksgiving. Thank me later.
  • Tim Patrick was a perfect four-for-four on targets, gaining 55 yards and averaging 13.8 yards per catch, with a long of 27 yards (Detroit's biggest play on offense). He had a red-zone catch from the nine-yard line-a big-bodied target with a firm grip in the WR3 role in Detroit.

My Picks:

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Sides:

  • The New York Giants are 13-8 ATS on the road.
  • The Giants are 9-10 ATS over their last 19 games.
  • The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
  • The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
  • They are 1-5 ATS at home this season.
  • The Giants have failed to cover the spread in their last six games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in six of the Giants’ last eight games.
  • Their opponents have scored first in the Giants’ last five road games.
  • The Giants are 12-8-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (9-6-1).
  • New York is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 divisional matchups.
  • The Giants have lost each of their last six home games.
  • The Cowboys have won 14 of their last 15 games against the Giants.
  • The road team has won 11 of the Cowboys' last 13 games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the Cowboys' last 14 games.
  • Dallas is 5-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games as home underdogs.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys' last 30 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost five straight home games.
  • Dallas is 4-2 on the road this season and ATS.
  • The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
  • The Cowboys have lost the first half in their last six home games.

Totals:

  • The Giants are 8-12 toward the over in the last 20 games
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in eight of their last 17 games.
  • Nine of the Giants’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Giants' last 14 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Cowboys' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Cowboys' last 25 games have gone OVER the projected total (last 15 of 23 games)
  • Games in Dallas have averaged north of 51 points this season (4-1 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 11-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • Fifteen of the Cowboys' last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Each of the Cowboys’ last five home games against the Giants has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

If you're lucky, the tryptophan from your turkey will hit as this game kicks off in the late afternoon window on Thanksgiving. Tom Brady is on the FOX broadcast, which means we have another blowout in the making. And it doesn't take a genius to guess which team blows out who in this matchup. The average margin of victory in a Brady-called game this season is more than two touchdowns.

Dallas has been bad this season, but the Giants have been worse. They aren't trying to win games with Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock as their quarterback. DeVito was a sack machine last season, and he took four more sacks in his first start last week against the Buccaneers.

However, with DeVito’s arm soreness, it’s likely not going to be DeVito under center on Thursday. Drew Lock is expected to draw the start. In my estimation, this is good for the Giants’ chances of having a real quarterback under center.

The Cowboys’ defense can't stop the run, but they still have a solid pass rush spearheaded by Micah Parsons.

The Cowboys are built to play from ahead, and they will approach this matchup similarly to how they won back in Week 4, 20-15. They jumped out to a 14-6 lead but couldn't fully put the Giants away. They were a missed field goal away from covering the six-point spread.

The Giants didn't score an offensive touchdown against Dallas with Daniel Jones. They had one legitimate red-zone drive.

Note that this matchup totaled 35 points when both teams HAD their Week 1 starting quarterbacks.

No need to overthink it. Zoom out. Cooper Rush versus Drew Lock. Under 37.5 points. Dallas is coming off a game that should have easily gone under the total had it not been for the chaos that ensued in the fourth quarter.

Dallas has averaged eight points per game in Rush’s two starts this season and the fewest estimated points over the last three weeks (per TeamRankings).

The Giants’ biggest weakness on defense is against deep passes, which Rush has completed three of in his last three starts.

Dallas Cowboys games have traditionally gone toward the over at home, but the Giants are the regression to the mean as we see the O/U even out.

As for the sides, it just seems too easy to lay the points with Dallas at home.  But divisional games, with two questionable QBs, have me somewhat pressing pause. Lock brings that “it” factor.

That being said, it's only 3.5-4 points, and Dallas "can't" go winless at home for the entire 2024 season. I might just hedge my bets and take the juice with Dallas ML and look for alternatives spread for complete Giants annihilation at maximum payouts. Dallas to win by two touchdowns? +330.

My play might end up being -105 for Cowboys ML, and the game total teased up to 45.5 is -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

I can't let one week make me totally forget my "Fade Dallas into oblivion," but the Giants are making it difficult not to reconsider. I know I would feel better about the Giants' chances if Lock were starting.

Props:

  • A Scott Bogman/BettingPros Prop Cheat Sheet special: Theo Johnson over his receiving yards and receptions.
  • The Giants rookie TE has gone over the receptions and receiving yards in six of his last seven games. The matchup isn't great, but a negative game script could thrust Johnson into some volume. Note that he is on the injury report.
  • Malik Nabers in +100 to catch a pass on the first drive (DK Sportsbook). After his rant in the team's blowout loss versus Tampa Bay, I'd imagine he gets targeted early. Whether he catches it...well, that's why it's called gambling.
  • Rico Dowdle carried the load on the ground in Week 12, logging 19 carries for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt with a long run of 9 yards. He also fumbled but still played 61% of the snaps (an increase from 49% last week). Ezekiel Elliott struggled in limited work, managing just 6 yards on three carries.
  • Dowdle also caught all 3 of his targets for 12 yards, and Hunter Luepke with a 10-yard reception. He finished with 22 touches in Week 12. Great matchup on deck this week against the Giants.
  • I will say that he might not get there as a receiver. His receiving yards line is set at 15.5 yards, which he has been under in three straight games with Cooper Rush as the QB. He has a negative ADOT of nearly three yards over that span, making it easy for him to lose yardage on his targets.
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the Week 12 ground game with nine carries for 42 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, including a long of 16 yards. He had five carries in the first half, and three total red-zone carries but also lost a fumble. That limited him to a 41% snap share.
  • Devin Singletary recorded two carries for three yards but managed to score the team's only rushing touchdown. It was a bad run out for Tracy's fantasy managers, as that was "his" TD had he not been punished for fumbling.
  • Tracy Jr. was effective out of the backfield, catching all four of his targets for 28 yards (mostly all garbage time). Devin Singletary and Eric Gray each caught two passes for seven yards apiece.
  • The usage might be unpredictable in this backfield, given Tracy's fumbles in recent weeks. Singletary's odds seem very long to score, considering he could be called upon in the red zone, given the importance of ball security in that area of the field. Tread lightly with the Tracy props for Thursday. It could be very boom-or-bust, depending on how Brian Daboll feels about his rookie RB.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 14 games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 14 games.
  • Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-8 overall since 2023. 5-9 as an underdog in their last 14 applicable games.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
  • The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The Dolphins have won 22 of their last 29 home games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Dolphins have won the first half in their last six games.
  • The Packers have been the first to 15 points in their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their last 15 games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 15-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 12-5 ATS. Green Bay is 4-9 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Dolphins have a 21.75 implied team total.
  • Green Bay is 2-8 as a road favorite ATS (sub-25%) and 11-10 on the money line.
  • The Packers have covered the spread in the last seven of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Packers have won six of their last seven games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last six games against AFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Dolphins’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Dolphins' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Miami is 4-2 toward the over at home this season (46 points per game).
  • Five of the Dolphins' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Packers are 19-11 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Twelve of the Packers' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5, 24 first-half points in Week 6, 14 in Week 7, 13 in Week 8, 3 in Week 9, 7 in Week 11, and 17 in Week 12.
  • That's 16 first-half points per game since Week 5, which would rank second in the NFL.
  • Nine of the Packers' last 15 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Green Bay is 3-3 O/U this season at home, averaging 44.2 points per game.

Overall:

The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams with winning records.

Last week, we went back to Miami because they play better at home against bad teams. That couldn't be farther from the case here in Week 13. They are on the road as underdogs against the Packers in freezing temperatures. Woof.

Green Bay isn't an elite home favorite ATS by any means, but this is such a bad spot for the Dolphins on Thursday night.

Miami is 4-0 ATS the last four weeks, but this is where the streak ends.

Green Bay’s defense is underrated: top-12 in fewest points, yards, and EPA allowed.

The Dolphins are 4-1 toward the over with Tua the last five weeks. The one game failing to go over Miami was held to 23 points (again a key number in these Packers games). Miami’s implied odds of scoring under 23.5 points are -148.

Green Bay will give up yardage regardless, even if they limit the final point total.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tua Tagovailoa has averaged 2.41 seconds time to throw this season, the quickest in the NFL and a repeat of his league-quick time to throw last season (2.36 seconds).

Tagovailoa threw for a Next Gen Stats era record 2,791 yards on quick passes in 2023 and has completed 115 of his 145 such passes for 1,028 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2024. The Packers have allowed 7.3 yards per attempt to quick passes this season, the most in the NFL.

Expect the tight ends and running backs for Miami to feast underneath. They rank top-12 in yards per game to both TEs and RBs this season.

Still, I lean toward the game total going under 47.5 points if I want more action aside from the total in this game.

Props:

  • Jonnu Smith scored the first touchdown in the Dolphins' last two games.
  • Smith was a key weapon in Week 12, catching nine of 11 targets (28% Target share) for 87 yards and a touchdown. His 61 yards after the catch underscored his ability to create after the catch.
  • He had NINE targets in the first half alone, in addition to four red-zone targets.
  • Smith has been the team's target share leader for the last FOUR weeks. Considering the usage, it's not surprising that he is producing, but to this extent is the most shocking part. And as pumped as I am for Jaylen Waddle hitting the over on his receiving yards prop against the Patriots, it was the perfect storm. The matchup was fantastic. I'm not as optimistic moving forward because the reasons why Waddle wasn't great for many previous weeks are still present, i.e., Smith and De'Von Achane. Those guys will get more targets in games against better defenses (like the Packers).  Keep in mind that Smith still out-targeted him in Waddle's best game of the season.
  • Given how bad the Packers linebackers are at covering, bet on the Dolphins tight end.
  • OVER on Jonnu Smith's 48.5 receiving yards. All projections have at 49-plus receiving yards.
  • The lack of consistency from the non-Achane Dolphins RBs doesn't give me confidence in either for the rest of the season. If anything, it just means more work for Achane with every game, which is so critical for the Dolphins to keep their playoff hopes alive.
  • Achane has over 4.5 catches in five of his seven games played with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback this season.
  • Christian Watson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers' last three Thursday games.
  • Jordan Love has thrown deep (20+ air yards) at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season (15.4%), completing 17 of his 43 such passes (39.5%) for 640 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
  • Love's 640 deep yards are the second-most in the NFL. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-highest completion percentage (43.8%) and third-highest passer rating (130.2) against deep passes this season.
  • Some Packers WR is coming down with a deep ball on Thursday night. Conventional wisdom suggests Watson is the guy after his horrible drop last week.
  • In the last four games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (20), air yards (406), and receiving yards (226) - even after a doughnut in Week 12.
  • I could also very much see Dontayvion Wicks on the receiving end of a Love deep pass. But instead of looking at his yardage prop, I'll go to his TD odds. Wicks should see an increased role with Romeo Doubs out. And despite Wicks’s limited role all season, he is tied for second on the team in red zone targets.
  • I wrote more about Wick's potential role in the Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast.
  • Odell Beckham Jr. had three targets in Week 12 but caught zero of them. However, he was targeted in the end zone again. I liked him as a long-shot TD scorer in Week 12, so I felt justified by the process that he did at least come close to scoring. I'm going back to this anytime TD prop on Thursday night.
  • Jordan Love has been under 32.5 pass attempts in five of his last seven games. Romeo Doubs is likely out. Take the less than on his pass attempts. It's the No. 4 +EV bet in the BettingPros Prizepicks Cheat Sheet for Week 13.

My Picks:

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