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NFL Thanksgiving Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Week 13 (2024)

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Thanksgiving provides us with an NFL tripleheader. Thus, there are three games to build same-game parlays (SGPs) for. The following are my favorite parlays for all three Thanksgiving Day contests (Bears at Lions, Giants at Cowboys, Dolphins at Packers).

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Thanksgiving Day’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

The Lions are 10-point favorites at home on Thanksgiving. Therefore, the game script should be a nightmare for D’Andre Swift’s rushing outlook and dreamy for Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing potential. Furthermore, if Caleb Williams drops back frequently, he’ll have opportunities to scramble, which count as rush attempts and give him chances to pile up rushing yards.

The Bears might not wait until they’re in a hole to air it out, either. According to RotoViz’s pace app, in two games with Thomas Brown as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, the Bears have had a 58% situation-neutral pass rate. Williams had nine and six rush attempts in those games for 70 and 30 rushing yards. While Williams’ rushing production has taken off, Swift had only 14 and 13 rush attempts for 71 and 30 rushing yards.

The matchup is at opposite ends of the spectrum for Williams’ and Swift’s rushing potential, too. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Lions have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game (23.7) to quarterbacks and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (68.7) to running backs this season.

The Bears have struggled mightily to contain running backs. Chicago has coughed up the eighth-most rushing yards per game (111.1) to running backs this season. Gibbs is equipped to steamroll them. The second-year pro averages 80.5 rushing yards per game this year, recording at least 63 yards in 10 consecutive games since posting 40 yards in Week 1.

Parlay Odds: +500

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Even sloppy football games with lousy football teams can be entertaining, and they’re opportunities to bet. While that’s not the greatest sales pitch for watching this game, there’s nothing wrong with betting on the game and checking the results later.

The Giants are 3.5-point underdogs this week. They might need Tommy DeVito to drop back to keep them in this contest. Unfortunately, the G-Men’s offensive line is banged up, and Tommy Cutlets might be forced to scramble on a few of his dropbacks.

The second-year signal-caller ran for 32 yards in his first start of the season in Week 12 and surpassed 22.5 rushing yards in three of his five starts last season. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (32.7) to quarterbacks. DeVito has enough mobility to take advantage of the matchup.

When DeVito airs it out, Malik Nabers should be a target hog. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, this was Nabers’ production in Week 12:

  • 92.5% route participation rate
  • 9.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
  • 43.9% air yards share
  • 28.1% target share
  • 0.24 targets per route run
  • 34.8% first-read percentage
  • 6 receptions
  • 64 receiving yards

While Nabers’ usage is already mouthwatering, he could get some squeaky-wheel treatment after Brian Daboll acknowledged he needs “to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands early.”

Theo Johnson has had at least 35 receiving yards in four straight games. He’s had at least 30 in six of his past seven contests. Johnson’s matchup against the Cowboys isn’t optimal. Still, they’ve allowed 43.4 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Sometimes, you don’t have to overthink a leg in a parlay, and this leg fits the bill.

The Cowboys have had a 47% situation-neutral rush rate in Cooper Rush’s three starts. They might be in a positive game script this week since they’re favorites, and teams have attacked Big Blue on the ground.

Since Week 9, the Giants have faced the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (55%). Thus, Bobby Okereke should have ample opportunities to rack up tackles. Since Week 8, he’s had 14, nine, 11, and eight combined solo and assisted tackles.

Parlay Odds: +1300

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers

Tua Tagovailoa has put together back-to-back excellent efforts and was sharp against the Bills in Week 9. However, as usual, Tagovailoa has picked on lousy defenses. The Dolphins are the kings of bum hunting, and they’re not erasing that narrative this season.

Tagovailoa has shredded the Jaguars, Raiders and Patriots for 338, 288 and 317 passing yards, respectively. Yet, he had only 145, 234, 231 and 207 against the Bills, Cardinals, Bills and Rams, respectively.

The Packers are much better than the bums Tagovailoa has carved up, and Green Bay has a run-funnel defense. The Packers have faced a 53% situation-neutral pass rate this season and a 54% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 8. Furthermore, it’s supposed to be cold on Thursday night, and Tagovailoa has notoriously struggled in the cold.

I don’t expect him to buck his cold weather or performances against quality opponent trends on Thanksgiving, and the Packers have intercepted 11 passes in 11 games. Not only do I expect Tagovailoa to fall short of 242.5 passing yards, but I also expect him to throw an interception.

Despite my lackluster expectations for Tagovailoa, Jonnu Smith can reach at least 25 receiving yards against the Packers. He’s had at least 25 receiving yards in four straight games, in six of his last seven and five times in Tagovailoa’s seven starts.

Since Tagovailoa returned from the injured reserve (IR) in Week 8, Smith has paced the Dolphins in target share (20.0%), receiving yards per game (59.8), and is tied for the team lead in first-read percentage (23.1%).

Green Bay’s run-funnel tendencies are ideal for De’Von Achane’s rushing outlook. In Tagovailoa’s seven starts this season, Achane has had 24, 96, 97, 63, 37, 73 and 32 rushing yards. The speedy second-year running back averaged 60.3 rushing yards per game in those contests, with a median of 63.

Even if the Dolphins end up in catch-up mode in a negative game script, Achane can reach the low threshold of 40 rushing yards against a defense permitting 92.7 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.

Josh Jacobs has thrived for the Packers this year and should have a positive game script for the favorites. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Jacobs is 15th in yards per carry (4.67), tied for eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21) and is fourth in rushing yards per game (85.8).

Jacobs has had at least 60 rushing yards in seven straight games and nine out of 11 games this season. He’s also had at least 60 rushing yards in seven of Green Bay’s eight victories. The Packers are tied for the highest situation-neutral rush rate (57%) since Week 8, so Jacobs should eat. FantasyPros projects him for 80.6 rushing yards against the Dolphins.

Parlay Odds: +800

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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