NFL Thanksgiving Same Game Parlays: Dolphins vs. Packers (Week 13)
Thanksgiving provides us with an NFL tripleheader. Thus, there are three games to build same-game parlays (SGPs) for. Here is my favorite NFL same game parlay for Dolphins vs. Packers.
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Thanksgiving Day’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets: Dolphins vs. Packers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dolphins vs. Packers
- Leg 1: Tua Tagovailoa Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Leg 2: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
- Leg 3: De’Von Achane 40+ Rushing Yards (-260)
- Leg 4: Jonnu Smith 25+ Receiving Yards (-370)
- Leg 5: Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards (-200)
Tua Tagovailoa has put together back-to-back excellent efforts and was sharp against the Bills in Week 9. However, as usual, Tagovailoa has picked on lousy defenses. The Dolphins are the kings of bum hunting, and they’re not erasing that narrative this season.
Tagovailoa has shredded the Jaguars, Raiders and Patriots for 338, 288 and 317 passing yards, respectively. Yet, he had only 145, 234, 231 and 207 against the Bills, Cardinals, Bills and Rams, respectively.
The Packers are much better than the bums Tagovailoa has carved up, and Green Bay has a run-funnel defense. The Packers have faced a 53% situation-neutral pass rate this season and a 54% situation-neutral pass rate since Week 8. Furthermore, it’s supposed to be cold on Thursday night, and Tagovailoa has notoriously struggled in the cold.
I don’t expect him to buck his cold weather or performances against quality opponent trends on Thanksgiving, and the Packers have intercepted 11 passes in 11 games. Not only do I expect Tagovailoa to fall short of 242.5 passing yards, but I also expect him to throw an interception.
Despite my lackluster expectations for Tagovailoa, Jonnu Smith can reach at least 25 receiving yards against the Packers. He’s had at least 25 receiving yards in four straight games, in six of his last seven and five times in Tagovailoa’s seven starts.
Since Tagovailoa returned from the injured reserve (IR) in Week 8, Smith has paced the Dolphins in target share (20.0%), receiving yards per game (59.8), and is tied for the team lead in first-read percentage (23.1%).
Green Bay’s run-funnel tendencies are ideal for De’Von Achane’s rushing outlook. In Tagovailoa’s seven starts this season, Achane has had 24, 96, 97, 63, 37, 73 and 32 rushing yards. The speedy second-year running back averaged 60.3 rushing yards per game in those contests, with a median of 63.
Even if the Dolphins end up in catch-up mode in a negative game script, Achane can reach the low threshold of 40 rushing yards against a defense permitting 92.7 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.
Josh Jacobs has thrived for the Packers this year and should have a positive game script for the favorites. Among 54 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Jacobs is 15th in yards per carry (4.67), tied for eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21) and is fourth in rushing yards per game (85.8).
Jacobs has had at least 60 rushing yards in seven straight games and nine out of 11 games this season. He’s also had at least 60 rushing yards in seven of Green Bay’s eight victories. The Packers are tied for the highest situation-neutral rush rate (57%) since Week 8, so Jacobs should eat. FantasyPros projects him for 80.6 rushing yards against the Dolphins.
Parlay Odds: +800
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.