NFL Thanksgiving Touchdown Scorers Picks & Predictions: Week 13 (2024)
Thanksgiving week is here, meaning there are three NFL games on Thursday. The day kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the last-place Chicago Bears and first-place Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the New York Giants face the Dallas Cowboys in the second game of the day in a matchup between backup quarterbacks. Then, Thanksgiving football wraps up with a matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers.
Millions of dollars will get bet on these games. However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for each game.
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Thanksgiving Games Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Bears First TD Scorer: Roschon Johnson (+500)
The Bears have a solid 1-2 punch at running back. D'Andre Swift is the lead guy, while Johnson is the goal-line rusher. The second-year running back has six rushing touchdowns despite having only 48 attempts, leading the team in overall scores. More importantly, he has scored in 55.6% of his games this season, including three of the past five contests. Furthermore, Johnson had the first Chicago touchdown in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against the Lions has been a rushing one in five consecutive matchups.
Lions First TD Scorer: Jahmyr Gibbs (+270)
Hopefully, David Montgomery can play against his former team on Thanksgiving. Yet, I like Gibbs to score the first Detroit touchdown, even if the veteran plays. The second-year star has 11 touchdowns this season, scoring at least once in 72.7% of the games. Furthermore, he has at least one touchdown in five of the past six contests. More importantly, Gibbs has scored the first Lions touchdown in 27.3% of the games, including last week. Last year, he had the team's first touchdown in both matchups against the Bears.
Anytime TD Scorer: Amon-Ra St. Brown (-110)
Unfortunately, St. Brown had a quiet performance against the Indianapolis Colts last week, totaling 62 receiving yards. More importantly, the superstar saw his touchdown streak come to an end. The former USC star has nine receiving touchdowns this season, the second-most in the NFL. He had two receiving touchdowns in Week 11. Furthermore, St. Brown scored at least once in eight consecutive games before last week's matchup. Meanwhile, the Bears have surrendered seven receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over their past six games, including two to Jordan Addison last week.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Giants First TD Scorer: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (+290)
Tracy is coming off one of his worst performances this season. The rookie running back fumbled last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, earning only nine rushing attempts. However, he has been the Giants' best running back, leading the team in rushing touchdowns and overall scores (three). More importantly, all three rushing touchdowns have come over the past six contests as New York's first score in the game. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against Dallas has been a rushing one in five of the past six consecutive contests.
Cowboys First TD Scorer: Rico Dowdle (+250)
The Cowboys' offense has been unpredictable this year, especially since losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury. Dallas has three rushing touchdowns, the fewest in the NFL. Surprisingly, Dowdle doesn't have one of the team's rushing scores. However, the veteran running back has three receiving touchdowns, ranking third on the team behind CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert (four each). More importantly, Dowdle's three receiving scores were the first Cowboys' touchdown in all three games, including the Week 4 matchup against the NFC East division rivals.
Anytime TD Scorer: CeeDee Lamb (+180)
Last year, Lamb finished third in the NFL with 12 receiving touchdowns, a career-high. Unfortunately, he has four receiving touchdowns this season. The superstar hasn't found the end zone since Week 8, totaling two receiving touchdowns over the past seven weeks. However, Lamb found the end zone in the Week 4 matchup against the Giants, making it the second consecutive game he found the end zone against the division rivals. More importantly, seven of the 10 receiving touchdowns given up by New York were to No. 1 wide receivers.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers
Dolphins First TD Scorer: Jonnu Smith (+650)
Many thought Smith would be an afterthought in Miami's offense this season. However, the veteran has stepped up, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle struggling. He has four receiving touchdowns, ranking second on the team behind De'Von Achane (five). Furthermore, Smith is second on the team in offensive touchdowns. More importantly, the veteran has all four receiving touchdowns over the past six weeks, including the first Dolphins' score in back-to-back games. Meanwhile, George Kittle had the first touchdown in the game in his matchup against the Packers last week.
Packers First TD Scorer: Tucker Kraft (+650)
Let's keep the tight end theme rolling with Kraft. The second-year tight end had two receiving scores as a rookie on 31 receptions. By comparison, he has six receiving touchdowns on 30 receptions this season. Kraft leads the Packers in receiving touchdowns, ranking second on the team in offensive scores behind Josh Jacobs (eight). More importantly, he has had the first Green Bay touchdown in two games this year, including last week. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against Miami has been by a tight end in back-to-back games.
Anytime TD Scorer: Josh Jacobs (-170)
Last week, Jacobs had three rushing touchdowns in the blowout win over the San Francisco 49ers, matching his career high. The star running back has seven rushing touchdowns this season, the 10th-most in the NFL. He has six rushing scores over his past four contests, totaling at least one in all but one game. Furthermore, Jacobs had two or more rushing touchdowns in two of those four contests. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs, the eighth-most in the league.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.